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Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive South Carolina’s Economy: Forecast.

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Presentation on theme: "Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive South Carolina’s Economy: Forecast."— Presentation transcript:

1 Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive South Carolina’s Economy: Forecast & Indicators. Will South Carolina’s Flowers Bloom in the Newly Sprouted Knowledge Economy? Bruce Yandle Professor of Economics Emeritus, Clemson University yandle@clemson.edu

2 Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive

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5 What matters now are BRAINS. How to get the brains…, and get them connected?

6 Average Annual Per Capita Real GDP Growth: 2000-2006

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8 2005 Over 25 Population with High School Education

9 Percent of Population 25 or older with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2005

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11 Let’s talk about where people work! And how that has changed.

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14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Distribution of US Nonfarm Employment by Industry 2006

15 Percent Distribution of SC Nonfarm Employment by Industry July 2007 Source: SCESC/LMI

16 Number of Employees: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, 2005

17 Median Family Income, 2005

18 The Changing Industrial Scene America is disintegrating!

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23 PRODUCTION-BASED INDUSTRY RANKINGS 1972 1980 1990 2000 2004 8.2007 Iron/Steel Iron/Steel Printing Comp/El Comp/El Comp/El Apparel Apparel Apparel Autos Autos Aircraft Machinery Paper Plast/Rubber Food Food Food Food Fab. Metal Food Fab. Metal Chemicals Plast/Rubber Paper Paper Chemicals Machinery Iron/Steel Fab. Metal Fab Metal Food Iron/Steel Plast/Rubber Plast/Rubber Elec. Mchy. Chemicals Chemicals Fab. Metal Chemicals Machinery Printing Autos Printing Machinery Printing Fab. Metal Chemicals Printing Autos Plast/Rubb Paper Paper Iron Steel Plast/Rubb Plast/Rubb Autos Iron/Steel Printing Nonmetal miner. Source: Economic Report of the President, 2005, and Federal Reserve Board.

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29 Looking for the Knowledge Economy How to get the brains…, and get them connected?

30 Voting with their Feet

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33 Where are the Brains? South Carolina, 2000

34 What lies ahead? When will the sub- prime problem end? Recession????

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44 Forecast Time Actual 12/31/06 Forecast 12/31/07 12/31/07 Forecast 12/08 Real GDP Growth 3.2% 2.5% 2.6%* 2.2% CPI Inflation 2.6% 2.5% 4.3%** 3.0% 30-yr. Mortgage 5.82% 6.0% 5.84% 6.10% Unemploy Rate 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Prime 8.25% 7.75% 7.25% 6.00% Dow 12,460 13,200 13,264 14,200 Employ Growth 150M 175M 120M 110M Oil $58 $45 $93 $80 Gold $510 $600 $838 $700 ________________ * Estimate. ** Through November 2007.

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