1. Bridging the Gap: Understanding the Academic Preparation of High School Graduates for College Admission Rick Kroc, University of Arizona Scott Andrew Schulz, University of Southern California 2008 AIR Forum – Seattle, Washington

2. Background and Purpose Purpose of Today’s Presentation: –Provide a framework for institutions/institutional systems to gauge eligibility in states where student data is not currently collected annually

3. Background and Purpose Eligibility is defined as the percentage of Arizona high school graduates who meet the criteria for university admission Eligibility is an important part of the access pipeline –Underrepresented populations –Changes to university admission criteria –Accountability measures –Enrollment projections and demand studies

4. Arizona Tri-University Admission Standards http://www.abor.asu.edu/3_for_students/admissions%20policy2-old.pdf

5. Project History Arizona Board of Regents has commissioned the state’s three public universities to collect/analyze student eligibility every few years Studies have analyzed 1989, 1996, 1998, 2002, and 2006 Arizona high school transcripts Database containing high school course-level data available for modeling the impact of policy changes

6. Selecting a Sample -Wanted a stratified sample with at least a 95% confidence interval –Needed at least n = 400 for each ethnic group Calculations based on anticipated grad rate and response rates –Grad rate for students entering senior year reported by state to be 87% –Response rate assumed to be about 70%, ended up being 73% Budget constraints

7. Established Multipliers AsianBlackHispanicNative AmWhite Total 12TH GRADE ENROLLMENT 2005-20068051,3379,2242,09213,76127,219 AsianBlackHispanicNative AmWhite Total Anticipated 12th Grade Graduation Rate (87%) 700 1,163 8,025 1,820 11,972 23,681 AsianBlackHispanicNative AmWhite Total Expected Response Rate (70%) 490 814 5,617 1,274 8,380 16,576 Transcripts RequestedAsianBlackHispanicNative AmWhite Total All (1)490 (526) All (1) 814 (749) 1 of 9 (.11) 618 (615) 1 of 2 (.5) 637 (617) 1 of 13 (.0769) 645 (762) 3,204 (3269)

8. Permission and Credibility School District Offices of Institutional Research Letters of Support –Superintendent of Public Instruction –UA Office of Enrollment Research

9. Packets Mailed Addressed to School Principals Included Instructions for Transcript Selection Follow-up Phone Calls and Reminder Cards Consistent Credibility Challenge

10. Findings 20062002199819961989 African American32%31%27%40%32% American Indian26%21% 40%22% Asian American70%66%62%74%66% Hispanic35%30%29%42%31% White57%52%49%61%50% Total48%44%42%55%44% History of Eligibility Rates Five new high school units added to requirements in 1998

11. Findings

12. EngMathSciSoc SciLangArts African Am.70%27%47%77%47%74% Am. Indian66%20%49%73%37%64% Asian Am.86%68%82%92%75%91% Hispanic65%26%50%78%51%71% White81%48%69%89%64%87% Total75%40%62%84%59%81% Completion Rate for 2006 Eligible Graduates

13. Findings Eligibility by Gender

14. Findings Total Competency Area Attainment

15. Findings

16. Conclusions Eligibility has improved for all ethnic groups since 2002, but substantial gaps continue to exist Women’s eligibility rates continue to be substantially higher than rates for men Eligibility rates in rural areas of Arizona lag behind rates in Maricopa and Pima Counties

17. Conclusions Completion of the required units of math would have the greatest impact on eligibility, followed by completion of the science and foreign language requirements Enrollment projections based on current eligibility rates are consistent with those made previously for university system and statewide planning purposes

18. Questions and Comments??? Presentation available at: http://www.usc.edu/cerpp Click on: CERPP Presentations