1. © 2007 Noblis, Inc. BUS RAPID TRANSIT AS A CATALYST FOR LAND USE CHANGE: THE ROUTE 1 CORRIDOR CASE STUDY 11th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2007 Matthew Hardy, Lead Transportation Engineer Donald Roberts, Senior Principal Manager

2. 2 Overview Background Literature Review Research Question and Hypothesis Methodology and Analysis Hypothesis Testing Conclusion

3. 3 Background 2005 BRAC Recommendations: –Consolidate 21,000 government employees from Crystal City to Ft. Belvoir Transportation infrastructure consists of 4-lane Route 1 –Limited bus service, no rail service Current transportation planning not focused on Route 1 Corridor This research provides first systematic evaluation of transit aspects for Route 1 Corridor

4. 4 The Route 1 Corridor Ft. Belvoir Crystal City Rt. 1 Corridor

5. 5 Crystal City

6. 6 Ft. Belvoir

7. 7 Literature Review 1) BRAC Impacts 2) Transportation & Land Use 3) Bus Rapid Transit

8. 8 BRAC Impacts 2005 BRAC recommendation unique for the National Capital Region –Calls for major intra-region consolidation –1988, 1991, 1993 and 1995 recommendations focused on inter-region consolidation WashCOG BRAC Impact Analysis –Limited impact on the region –Possible localized impact (Arlington/Fairfax County)

9. 9 Transportation & Land Use Role of Government –Insure mixed-use components? –Free market activities? –Economic Realities? Transit and Land Use –Focus on Rail. Why? “increasingly en vogue with policy-makers, the media and researchers due to nostalgia, potential environmental efficiency, ease of provision of high frequency service and attractiveness of guaranteed service”

10. 10 Bus Rapid Transit Major Elements of BRT  System Performance  System Benefits  Right-of-Way  Stations  Vehicles  Fare Collection  Intelligent Transportation Systems  Service and Operations Plan  Travel Time Savings  Reliability  Safety & Security  Capacity  Identity and Image  Ridership  Transit – Supportive Land Development  Capital Cost Effectiveness  Operating Efficiency  Environmental Quality  Land Development Characteristics of Bus Rapid Transit (CBRT) ITS & BRT Assessment Tool –Developed by Noblis –Sketch planning tool that “automates” CBRT

11. 11 Research Statements

12. 12 Research Questions Can a transit system be implemented in the Route 1 Corridor that provides high-quality service as defined in the literature review? Can a transit service be constructed such that the opportunity cost associated with it does not preclude other corridors from receiving transit service? Will or can a bus-based transit service foster land use change? What type of transit system can be operational by 2011?

13. 13 Hypothesis BRT systems provide high-quality transit service in terms of travel time and system capacity, reduce opportunity costs over other transportation options (thus enable funding for additional transit service in other corridors in the application region), and act as a catalyst for land use change.

14. 14 Methodology 1) Comparable BRT and LRT Systems 2) ITS & BRT Assessment Tool

15. 15 Comparable BRT and LRT Systems Silver Line: Boston, MA MAX: Las Vegas, NV San Pablo RAPID: Oakland, CA Brisbane South East Busway: Brisbane, Australia TransMillenio: Bogota, Columbia LRT: Developed from Comparison of Bus Rapid Transit & Light Rail Transit Characteristics

16. 16 Transit Modeling Spectrum Simple Complex Paramics VISSIM SCRITS IDAS STEAM ITS & BRT Assessment Tool SPASM CBRT TLOS ITSUP TransCAD FTIS SmartBRT 4-Step Process Benefit- cost Analysis TCQOS Limited, Rough Estimation, Short Run Times, Limited Training, Lower Set-Up Costs, Quicker Development Comprehensive, Precise Calculation, Longer Run Times, Training Required, Higher Set-Up Costs, Longer Development

17. 17 Role of CBRT and IBAT Final Design and Construction Preliminary Engineering Level of Detail Alternative Analysis Number of Alternatives Final Design and Construction Alternatives Analysis CBRT Systems/Sketch Planning Supported by IBAT

18. 18 ITS & BRT Assessment Tool  Running Way  Fare Collection  Station Design  Vehicle Characteristics  Marketing/Image  Service Plan  Legacy ITS  Network/Corridor InputsAnalysisOutputs  Packages of ITS  Min, Avg, Max  Costs  Benefits  ROI  Impact Measures ITS Impact Algorithm Network/Corridor Analysis Algorithm System Performance Measures ITS Decision Tree (Hierarchy) ITS Refinement ITS Enhanced BRT Characteristics of BRT BRT Impact Database Characteristics of BRT TCRP A-23 TCRP A-23a

19. 19 Analysis 1) System Performance Measures 2) Opportunity Costs 3) Land Use Impact

20. 20 System Evaluation Table

21. 21 System Performance Measures Average Operating Speeds –BRT: 8 to 15 mph –LRT: 12 mph –Route 1 BRT: 12.7 mph System Capacity –BRT: 1440 pphpd (U.S.) and 41,000 pphpd (Bogota) –LRT: 9600 pphpd –Route 1 BRT: 5400 pphpd System capacity is not a limiting factor for BRT given the estimated passenger demand.

22. 22 Opportunity Costs Capital Costs –BRT: $230k to $16,600k per mile –LRT: $50,000k per mile –Route 1 BRT: $10,600k per mile Operating Costs –No comparable BRT/LRT figures –Operating costs for bus systems (not BRT) are 1/3 to 1/2 those of LRT

23. 23 Land Use Impacts Quantifiable data difficult to obtain No formal land use impact evaluation of U.S. BRT system –Boston Silver Line ex post assessment real estate data suggest $1.22 billion in real estate investment International Data –Brisbane: 20% increase in land values within 6 miles of BRT station (2 to 3 times higher rate than elsewhere) –TransMillenio purpose centered around land use changes

24. 24 Hypothesis Testing HypothesisSupportEvidence 1.BRT systems provide high- quality transit service. StrongFive BRT systems had similar average operating speeds as compared to LRT service. 2.BRT systems reduce opportunity costs. StrongEvidence suggests that the opportunity cost of BRT (measured in terms of capital and operating costs) is strong. However, limited data regarding operating costs. 3.BRT systems act as a catalyst for land use change. WeakLimited data specific to U.S. BRT systems.

25. 25 Conclusions

26. 26 Route 1 BRT Analysis There is strong evidence that BRT is a viable transit option for the Route 1 Corridor –Faster development cycle, innovative operating characteristics, lower opportunity costs –IBAT tool sufficient to model BRT for sketch planning purposes Policy Implications –BRT versus LRT Opportunity Costs –BRT Service Flexibility –Financing Transit Future Research –Development of evaluation model for U.S. BRT deployments –BRT and land use connection

27. 27 Thank You. Matt Hardy Lead Transportation Engineer (202) 863-2982 matthew.hardy@noblis.org Don Roberts Senior Principal Manager (202) 863-2976 dlrobert@noblis.org