1. Climate & Climate-related Creeping Environmental Problems: Rates and Processes Mickey Glantz Director, CCB INSTAAR, University of Colorado 12 February 2009

2. What I mean by Climate Climate variability Seasonal to inter-annual Climate fluctuations Decade scale Climate change “Deep” climate change –New global climate state Extreme meteorological events Seasonality Reminder

3. Climate science & education includes: Understanding the Climate System Understanding its components Accepting society as a component Along with… ocean, atmosphere, vegetation, ice, etc. Reminder

4. Perceptions of Climate Climate as a hazard Climate as a resource Climate as a constraint In every society climate is a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next. Reminder

5. Three key issues The identification of climate-related creeping environmental problems; devise ways to identify thresholds of major change before they are crossed The growing need to cope with instability as well as seeking to forecast the causes of instability in ecosystems and societies The future for many places under “business as usual scenarios” is already present but in other locations on the globe, or had taken place at other times. Learn from them.

6. The Earth’s Problem Climates ( G. Trewartha, 1960) Trewartha wrote that… “A methodical description of all the earth’s climates is not attempted, for many areas are climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment in a book which professes to emphasize the exceptional”

7. Concerns about the notion of “problem climates” Is such a statement still valid, given what we have learned about climate since 1960? Are there really areas on the globe that could be viewed as “climatically so normal or usual that they require little comment?” Are there exceptional “problem climates?” Should we also be asking questions about societies’ role in the existence of problem climates?

8. Problem Societies

9. Dust storms on the Texas- New Mexico border, 1977 Egypt-Israel border

10. CEPs in a particular ecotype: the Drylands Overgrazing Wood cutting Salinization Groundwater changes Population increases Using increasingly marginal land Pesticide use Need for more water to flush soils Use of lands increasingly marginal for agriculture Soil fertility

11. Mangrove destruction for shrimp farming in Guatemala ( 2001) Demise of the Aral Sea, Central Asia (1960-present)

12. The Aral Sea Basin, a multi-stressed environment Streamflow diversions Shortened life expectancy Hotter summer, colder winter Upstream-downstream energy for water conflicts haves and have-nots issues Declining water quantity Loss of wildlife and forests Loss of biological diversity Rapid sea level drop Loss of biological productivity Pesticide & fertilizer use Declining water quality Ethnic conflicts Contaminated aerosols Dust storms Karakum Canal 5 competing nations Soon to be 6? Terrorist groups Dictatorships Global Warming Loss of cultural heritage

13. C02 emissions since 1850

14. Creeping environmental problems Air pollution Acid Rain, Global warming Ozone depletion Tropical deforestation Soil erosion Water quality & quantity Glacier retreat Waste disposal/landfills Nuclear waste Marine pollution, etc.

15. Creeping environmental Changes Creeping rate of change –Incremental –Slow onset –Low grade –But … Cumulative Major changes apparent only over time Demographics are also changing

16. Most creeping environmental problems involve human activities They are long term, low grade but cumulative –Today is not much worse than yesterday and tomorrow is likely to be not much worse than today No government, rich or poor deals with CEPs efficiently or effectively

17. Where do they occur? In rich as well as poor countries In industrial and agrarian societies On all inhabited continents Wherever humans and ecosystems meet Especially in vulnerable or fragile ecosystems

18. Some CEP examples Aral Sea Lake Victoria Basin Galapagos Islands Brazilian Amazon CO2 in the atmosphere

19. A Societal Perspective  High rates  Cause alarm  Slow rates  Generate laissez-faire attitude n Rates and Processes are often as important as the Magnitude of change

20. Why focus on Creeping Environmental Problems? To reduce scientific and policy uncertainty about rates and processes of change and societal responses to them To improve an understanding of rates of change and the processes that drive them To underscore the importance of the human aspects of global environmental change To generate heightened concern about the societal and political importance of early warning systems

21. When are rates of change seen as a crisis? When there is a... –High level of vulnerability –Low level of societal resilience –Perceived high stakes at risk –Perceived threat –Perceived short time to act –Concern about impacts reversibility

22. “Dread Factors” and climate change Collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet 2X and 4X CO 2 emissions Ocean Conveyor Belt Switch 1988 US Midwest hot summer analogue Rate of 3ºC/century vs. 0.3ºC/decade 1980s and 1990s: hottest decades And now … Abrupt Climate Change

23. Foreseeability "FORESEEABLE RISK, i.e., risks whose consequences a person of ordinary prudence would reasonably expect might occur… In tort law… a party's actions may be deemed negligent only where the injurious consequences of those actions were foreseeable." For example, "established by proof that the actor or person of reasonable intelligence and prudence, should reasonably have anticipated danger to others created by his or her negligent act.“ "Foreseeability encompasses not only that which the defendant foresaw, but that which the defendant ought to have foreseen." (Gifis, 1991)

24. Hotspots Lots of attention to hotspots Hotspots can be found along a continuum, from transformation to firepoint Hotspots capture attention but areas of concern (AOCs) are where actions should be taken

25. What one generation leaves for the next generation Natural changes; different timescales Human induced; not all changes are bad The proverbial 11 th hour; little time to act Too costly, too late. Move on. Focus should be here This level captures attention Changes become critical

26. Problems of Attribution For Prediction of cause-effect For Societal Responses –Prevention –Mitigation (pro-action) –Adaptation (re-action )

27. Little Agreement on Rates, because... Poor information/data Honest scientific disagreements Varying perceptions (by factors of X) Political Aspects associated with the various rates (and processes) See Brian Martin’s “Bias of Science” on the supersonic transports (SSTs)

28. n Increase in CFCs as … n Refrigerant, air conditioners n electronics cleanser n Foam blowing agent n Skin cancer fear n The Role of the ‘ozone hole’ n Montreal Protocol n Rapid rate of change in CFC use Example #1: Stratospheric ozone depletion

29. n How to define rates of change n How to characterize rates of change n Who is interested in identifying the correct rate? n Who cares about this rate? Example #2: Tropical Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

30. Caspian Sea Level Changes –1930s, a 2+ meter decline began –1978, a 2+ meter increase began How to attribute causes –Natural? –Anthropogenic Why bother to attribute causes? Example #3: Caspian Basin

31. Example #4: Galapagos Islands Increasing … –Number of illegals settlers from the mainland (Ecuador) –Overfishing, illegal fishing methods –Feral animals (cats, dogs, goats) brought to the islands –Invasive species (chickens, insects) competing with native species –Population increase –Tourist numbers increase (and all that entails)

32. Example #5: Lake Victoria Basin Introduction of the Nile Perch (circa 1960) for export to Europe Decrease in native species Increase in loss of indigenous fishing sector Increase in population in the basin Increase in deforestation Increase in water hyacinth

33. Challenges Past lessons of managing drylands need to be applied Making “what ought to be” the proper use of drylands “the actual use” Convincing governments to consider the limits of exploitation of the natural environment Convincing governments to plan beyond their tenure in office Convincing governments to put a proper value on nature