1. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people The Changing Population of Rural Scotland Duncan Macniven Registrar General

2. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people What I’ll speak about Population size Components of population change Geography of rural population change Age structure Migration Households and dwellings Population projections

3. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Population size

4. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population since 1855

5. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population change 1988-2007

6. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population change 1988-2007 1988 watershed –Deaths exceeded births for only third year since 1855 –Migration positive (+2,300) for only fifth year since 1855 Stable natural change –Births now rising: 1988 66k, 2002 51k, 2007 58k –Deaths falling: 1988 62k, 2007 56k Net migration now strongly positive –1988-89 +2k, 2006-07 +27k

7. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scotland’s population change 1988-2007

8. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Scottish Government's urban rural classification Rural : settlements with a population of less than 3,000 Accessible rural: less than 30 minute drive time to nearest settlement of 10,000 or more Remote rural: more than 30 minute drive time to nearest settlement of 10,000 or more

9. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people

10. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Urban/rural population 2007 Population% Large urban1,998,88139 Other urban1,555,06330 Accessible small town461,3189 Remote small town186,5824 Accessible rural608,17012 Remote rural334,1866 Total5,144,200100

11. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 11 Population change 1997-2007 (%)

12. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Components of population change

13. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Components of population change, 2006-2007 BirthsDeaths Natural change Net Migration Total change SCOTLAND11.010.80.25.25.4 Large Urban11.210.90.33.74.0 Other Urban11.711.00.81.01.7 Accessible Small Towns10.710.60.14.14.2 Remote Small Towns10.313.7-3.35.01.6 Accessible Rural10.59.41.018.719.7 Remote Rural8.710.8-2.111.08.8 (rate per thousand)

14. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Birth and death rates, 2007 Birth rate Standardised birth rateDeath rate Standardised death rate SCOTLAND11.2 10.9 Large Urban11.59.911.011.5 Other Urban11.812.111.011.1 Accessible Small Towns10.912.310.810.5 Remote Small Towns10.412.613.811.1 Accessible Rural10.713.09.49.6 Remote Rural8.812.311.09.5 (rate per thousand)

15. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 15 Life expectancy at birth 2004-2006

16. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Geography of rural population change

17. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 17 Population change, Dumfries & Galloway 1997-2007

18. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 18 Population change, Eilean Siar and Highland 1997-2007 (Remote Rural areas)

19. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 19 Population change, Orkney 1997-2007

20. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 20 Population change, Shetland 1997-2007

21. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Age structure

22. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 22 Population age structure 2007

23. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 23 Population change by age 1997-2007 (%)

24. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Migration

25. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 25 Net migration 2006-2007, by age

26. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people 26 Net migration (per thousand) 2006-07, by age

27. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Households and dwellings

28. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Vacant and second homes 2007 ( % of Dwellings)

29. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Vacant dwellings, Dumfries& Galloway (% of all dwellings vacant, 2007) 0 to 10 to 1 1 2 to 22 to 2 3 to 33 to 3 4 to 854 to 85 Legend 0 to 1 2 3 4 5 to 11

30. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Second homes, Dumfries & Galloway (% of all dwellings, 2007) 0 to 10 to 1 1 2 to 22 to 2 3 to 33 to 3 4 to 854 to 85 Legend 0 to 1 2 3 4 5 to 11

31. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected change in household numbers 2006-31 (%)

32. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected households with children 2031

33. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected households headed by over-60s 2031

34. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Population projections

35. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected population change 2006-2031

36. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Projected population change, selected council areas, 2006-2031

37. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people Summary Rural population 18% of total Growing much faster than Scottish average since 1997 Gaining from migration & (except remote rural) natural change Excellent (standardised) birth and death rates Life expectancy better than Scottish average Growth not just in plum areas (eg Skye) But some key areas of decline, especially Eilean Siar Age structure: accessible rural not hugely different from Scottish average but remote rural older Change in age structure since 1997: big increases in over 60s (and decreases in under 24s in remote rural) Recent migration: losing 16-24 but gaining all others especially 25-59 Many vacant dwellings and (remote rural) second homes Projected increases in number of households – especially headed by 60+ Projected future population change variable

38. General Register Office for S C O T L A N D information about Scotland's people The Changing Population of Rural Scotland Duncan Macniven Registrar General