1. Possibilities for C / GHG mitigation in agricultural lands Pete Smith Professor of Soils & Global Change School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Scotland, UK E-mail: pete.smith@abdn.ac.uk CarboEurope-IP Annual Meeting, Poznan, Poland, October 2007

2. Outline Agricultural GHG emissions Global potential for agricultural GHG mitigation Agriculture in the big picture Conclusions

3. Agricultural GHG emissions

4. Distribution of croplands globally

5. Agricultural GHG emissions CH 4 and N 2 O emissions by world region, 1990-2020

6. Global potential for agricultural GHG mitigation

7. Method Database of over 200 experiments to derive per- area / per-animal mitigation efficiencies for >60 agricultural mitigation options, for four climate zones – for CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Mean estimates and low and high 95% CI values derived from mixed effects modelling Applied to appropriate agricultural (crop, grass, livestock) areas / numbers in each climate zone in each region Smith et al. (2007a)

8. Per-area / per-animal mitigation potential For 14 practices, for 4 climate zones, for CO 2, N 2 O & CH 4, estimates for mean and +/- 95%CI Smith et al. (2007a)

9. IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG Mitigation FAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing regions)

10. IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG Mitigation FAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing thermal climate)

11. IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG Mitigation FAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing production constraints)

12. IPCC AR4 Agricultural GHG Mitigation FAO AEZ Database (e.g. showing land cover)

13. Global mitigation potential in agriculture Smith et al. (2007a)

14. Regional breakdown of mitigation potential Smith et al. (2007a)

15. High and low estimates of the mitigation potential in each region

16. Effect of C price on implementation Smith et al. (2007a)

17. Global mitigation potential in agriculture (Mt CO 2 -eq. yr -1 ) Price range (USD t CO 2 -eq. -1 ) Scenario0-200-500-100 0->>100 (technical potential) B11925238431495480 A1b1982243932545670 B22047249533305844 A22119254933305957 Smith et al. (2007a)

18. Agriculture in the big picture

19. Global economic mitigation potential for different sectors at different carbon prices IPCC WGIII (2007)

20. GHG emissions have increased by 70% since 1970 IPCC, AR4, WGIII (2007) Emission trends

21. There is significant mitigation potential at a range of C prices IPCC WGIII (2007)

22. The cost of stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations by 2100 Increases with the stringency of the stabilization target Stabilizing at 590-710 ppm CO 2 -eq. will cost -0.6 to1.23% of GDP Stabilizing at 535-590 ppm CO 2 -eq. will cost 0.2 to 2.5% of GDP Stabilizing at 445-535 ppm CO 2 -eq. will cost 3% of GDP IPCC WGIII (2007)

23. Characteristics of stabilization scenarios – links between GHG concentrations, warming, emission peak year and reduction required IPCC WGIII (2007)

24. Change in temperature associated with different GHG stabilization levels IPCC WGIII (2007)

25. Conclusions Agriculture offers a globally significant slice of climate mitigation Agricultural mitigation options are cost competitive with climate mitigation measures in other sectors Climate mitigation to stabilise atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at between 500 and 700 ppm will cost 0-3% of global GDP (a lot of money!) The cost of not mitigation climate change are estimated to cost at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more (Stern, 2006; that is even more money!!) To mitigate or not to mitigate – it really is a no brainer

26. Thank you for your attention