1. Low Frequency Variability of Subtropical North Pacific Ocean Circulation and Its Impacts on the Dynamic Environment of the Marginal Seas (NPOIMS) Chief Scientist: Lixin Wu Ocean University of China Qingdao, China

2. A National Basic Research Project(973) Funding Agency: Ministry of Science and Technology of China ( MOST) Period: 2007-2012 Total Budget: 29 M Chinese Yuan

3. Proposed Jointly by

4. Objectives To understand Mechanisms and improve the Prediction of low- frequency variability of dynamic environments of the marginal seas and the adjacent deep ocean (1) reveal the processes and mechanisms of energy and mass exchange between the subtropical North Pacific and the marginal seas; (2) establish both conceptual and numerical models of this dynamic exchange system, and assess the predictability of low frequency variability of the marginal seas and the adjacent deep ocean; (3) develop theories of interaction between deep ocean and marginal seas. Specifically:

5. A Unique Deep Ocean-Marginal Sea Dynamic Exchange System Marginal Sea Deep Ocean Driving Force Soft Western Boundary

6. WBCWBC Interior Ocean Deep ocean-Marginal Seas Dynamic System Predictability of Low-frequency variability Marginal Seas

7. 已完成的 973 项目 “ 中国近海 环流形成变异机理、数值预 测方法及对环境影响的研究 ” 1999-2004 正在执行的 973 项目 “ 中国东 部陆架边缘海物理环境演变 及其环境效应 ” 2006-2010 正在执行的 973 项目 “ 亚印太交汇 区海气相互作用及其对我国短期 气候的影响 ” 2007-2011 本项目 973 projects related to this proposal

8. A integrated study of the subtropical Circulation long-term measurement of the transport and Current profile of the Kuroshio Current at its origin (aound 18N) Theory for the energy and water mass exchange between the Kuroshio and the SCS and the ECS, no theory for “soft” western boundary Unified Ocean circulation model which can simulate both coastal and large-scale ocean circulation Further Studies:

9. 3.Mechanisms of the Kuroshio variations over the Eastern China Sea and its impacts on the shelf dynamic environment 1. Dynamics and mechanisms of interior ocean variability and its influences on the western boundary current 2. Mechanisms of variations of the current system at the Kuroshio origin and impacts on the water and energy exchange through Luzon Strait Key Scientific Issues

10. Deep Ocean- Marginal Seas Dynamic System Interior Ocean and WBC Air-sea Coupling Model Development WBC and Marginal Seas Predictability of low-frequency variability of the marginal seas and the adjacent deep ocean Research Framework

11. Theme#1 ： Dynamics of variability and adjustment of subtropical North Pacific ocean circulation 内区动力环境变异的时空特征及形成 机制 ; 不同区域能量涡度异常的形成 - 移动 - 耗散过程及其对黑潮的影响 黑潮源头流系的时空变化特征，北赤道流分叉变 异机制及其对黑潮源头流量的影响 Research Themes

12. 黑潮形变机理及其对 南海北部环流、台湾暖流的影响 陆坡、中尺度涡和大河冲淡水的 浮力强迫对黑潮与陆架能量和水 交换的影响 东海黑潮变异对东海分支的影响 Theme2: Processes and mechanisms of energy and water exchange between the Kuroshio and the Marginal Seas Research Themes

13. Theme3 ： Ocean-atmosphere coupled interaction over the western subtropical Pacific Air-Sea Coupling 黑潮变异对海洋经向热输送的影响；经向热输送变异对中纬度海洋 - 大气之间热量交换及其对大气环流的影响；洋流 - 大气耦合效应对北 太平洋副热带环流的影响 冬季海气净热通量 冬季降水 Research Themes

14. Theme4 ： Predictability of low-frequency variability of the marginal seas and adjacent deep ocean Parameterization of physical processes Improvement of modeling technology Data Assimilation system Predictability study Research Themes

15. W. B.C M. S. I. O. Field Experiment Modeling Develop Theory, Diagnostic, Simulation Lab Experiment Deep ocean-Marginal Seas Dynamic Exchange System Research Strategy Energy and Mass exchanges

16. 1. Mechanisms of variability and adjustment of subtropical North Pacific ocean circulation 2. Spatial-temporal characteristics of current system at the Kuroshio origin and its control mechanisms 3. Interaction between the Kuroshio and dynamic environment over the South China Sea 4. Interaction between the Kuroshio and dynamic environment over the East China Sea 5. Mechanisms of feedback of subtropical ocean circulation adjustment to the atmospheric circulation 6. Development of an unified Deep ocean-coastal ocean circulation model 7. Predictability of the coastal oceans and the adjacent Deep ocean Subprojects

17. Plan for Field Experiment

18. 东方红 2 号 科学一号科学三号 Research Vessels

19. Lab Experiment

20. NPOIMS contributes to AMY  Targets: To understand Mechanisms and improve the Prediction of low-frequency variability of dynamic environments of the marginal seas and the adjacent deep ocean  An unified deep ocean-coastal ocean circulation model  Observation and data: (1) Period: ?? (Two years) (2) Area/Sites: Luzon Strait, West of the Luzon Island (18N), East China Sea, and North-East SCS, Western Pacific and East China Sea Cruises (3) Data: Surface mooring at the two stations, ADCP, RV cruises

21. Thanks