1. Assessment of Iran’s Nuclear Program Press Event Tuesday, September 14, 2004 Dr. Charles D. Ferguson Science and Technology Fellow

2. Capsule History Iranian nuclear program dates back at least to 1957 – Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S. The Shah wanted self-sufficiency  complete nuclear fuel cycle 1979 Islamic revolution to early 1980s: nuclear hiatus Mid-1980s to present: revitalized nuclear program (e.g., 1985: start of centrifuge program)

3. Dual-Use Dilemma Two routes to making a nuclear bomb or civilian nuclear fuel:  enriching uranium  making and separating/reprocessing plutonium Iran has acquired technology to do both  striving for mastery of both front and back ends of nuclear fuel cycle

5. Latest IAEA Report: Outstanding Issues Front End of Fuel Cycle: Centrifuge Enrichment Program  P-2 advanced centrifuges: Absence of activity between 1995 and 2002?  Enriched uranium contamination Uranium Conversion  37 tons yellowcake to UF 6 this month  potentially enough for half dozen crude bombs Laser Enrichment Back End of Fuel Cycle: Plutonium Separation Experiments and Heavy Water Plant and Reactor

6. Latest IAEA Report: Outstanding Issues (continued) Polonium-210:  Nuclear weapon initiator or nuclear battery power source?  Lab experiments between 1989 and 1993  Other research? Lavisan-Shian:  Site in Tehran where there was alleged nuclear activities  Razed to the ground after November 2003  “possibility of a concealment effort by Iran”  Environmental samples and documents being analyzed by IAEA

7. How Soon Before Iran Can Make a Nuclear Bomb? July 29, 2004 EU-Iran meeting:  Could produce enough weapons-grade HEU within one year of decision to do so  Could make nuclear device within 3 years CIA Past Estimates:  1992: Bomb by 2000  1995: Bomb by 1998-2000  2000: Bomb cannot be ruled out  Feb. 2004: DCI Tenet, “significant challenge for intelligence to confidently assess whether that red line had been crossed”