1. Socio-Economic and Political Dynamic in Belarus shortly before Presidential Elections Prof. Dr. Oleg Manaev University of Tennessee, USA IISEPS, Belarus Washington D.C., September 8-11, 2015

2. Background Because of incomplete nature of the very “Project Belarus” – as a system of institutional and cultural features clearly differing Belarusian nation, state and society from the others – Belarus faced independence in 1991 as the most “denationalized nation” in the former USSR. This situation inevitably led Belarusians to a need for some “unifying basis”. President Lukashenka used this situation very effectively introducing himself as such “basis”. In fact, he limited the national identification and consolidation process by only one dimension – the state building and role of the President as it’s only one “guarantor”. Recent dramatic Ukraine-Russia conflict gave new dynamics to this process. Violation of the international order principles by Russia puts forward geopolitics again. The West is trying to counter-balance expansion of the “Russian World” by re-thinking and re-building relations with countries in the region including Belarus. This process affects Belarus Presidential elections in October 2015.

3. I. Economic Situation Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: “How your personal economic situation has been changed during last three months” % * Economic Situation Index Options06'1112'1303'1403'1506'15 Improved213131099 Remains the same2358634451 Deteriorated7328254637 ESI*–71–15 –37–28

4. Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: "Do you think that Belarusian economy is in crisis?" % Options09'1112'1303'1403'1506'15 Yes 869695686872 No 82235201717

5. Table 3.Dynamics of answering the question: “How economic situation in Belarus will change in the forthcoming years? % * Expectations Index Options06'1112'1303'1403'1506'15 Will improve1212131324232 Will remain the same20464536 Will deteriorate565636362634343737 EI*–44–23–2–11–15

6. Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: "Do you think the state of things is developing in our country in the right or in the wrong direction in general?" % * Options09'1112'1303'1403'1506'15 In the right direction 1732324037373535 In the wrong direction 69695446464649 DCI*–52–22–6–6–9–9–14 Development Correctness Index

7. II. Attitudes to Authorities Table 1. Dynamics of answering the question: "According to you, is the fact that now almost all of the state power is concentrated in the hands of A. Lukashenka, favorable for Belarus or there is nothing good for the country in it?" % Options09'0906'1112'1206'15 It’s favorable for Belarus 44263340 There is nothing good for the country in it 36595048 DA/NA 20151712

8. Table 2. Distribution of answers to the question: "According to you, does A. Lukashenka know where he leads Belarus?“ % Options06'15 Yes 54.5 No 35.7 DA/NA 9.8

9. Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: "According to you, whom does President A. Lukashenka mostly relies on?", % (several answers are possible) Options08'0606'15+/– On state officials 4755+8+8 On presidential hierarchy line 3749+12 On chiefs of large enterprises 2139+18 On military force, KGB, MIA 1423+9+9 On businessmen 59+4+4 On specialists 1012+2+2 On cultural and scientific elite 810+2+2 On retired people 4137–4 On rural citizens 3025–5 On simple people 3417–17

10. OptionsRussiaBelarusUkraine The President554926 The People234557 Table 4. Distribution of answers to the question: "Who is the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty in Belarus (Russia, Ukraine) according to the Constitution?" %

11. Table 5. Distribution of answers to the question: "Who is the sole source of state power and the bearer of sovereignty in Belarus (Russia, Ukraine) according to the Constitution?" % OptionsBelarus Attitudes to A. Lukashenka Trust (49)Distrust (39) The President496138 The People453456

12. Table 6. Distribution of answers to the question: "Which of the following statements on Belarusian state, built under the rule of A. Lukashenka, do you agree with?" % Options% It is my state, it protects my interests 41 It is only partially my state, it doesn’t protect my interests enough 44 It is not my state, it does not protect my interests and I do not trust it 10

13. Table 7. Distribution of answers to the question: "Which variant of changes do you consider most realistic and desirable in Belarus?“ % Options06'15 Elections 49.0 Republican referendum 27.9 Street protests 9.9 DA/NA 13.2

14. Table 8. Distribution of answers to the question: "If A. Lukashenka runs as a candidate on presidential elections for the fifth time, and he has an adversary from democratic opposition, who will you vote for?"% Options06'15 For A. Lukashenka 37.4 For the candidate from democratic opposition 20.6 For neither of them 27.0 DA/NA 15.0

15. Table 9. Dynamics of electoral rating of President A. Lukashenka, % Date09'1112'1303'1403'1506'15 Rating21353540343939

16. Table 10. Dynamics of answering the question: “Are you going to vote at the Presidential Elections in October 2015 г.?" % Options01'1503'1506'15 Definitely yes/Rather yes7171737272 Rather not/Definitely not2522

17. Table 11. Distribution of answering the question: "Are most people trustworthy or is it important to be careful in relations with people?", % Options06'15 Most people are trustworthy 25 It is important to be very careful in relations with people 67 DA/NA 8

18. III. Geo-political orientations Table 1. Distribution of answering the question: "Do you think that people in Belarus live worse than people in Western countries?“ % Options% Yes 60.0 No 30.8 DA 9.2

19. Table 2. Dynamics of answering the question: "If there was a referendum on Belarus joining the EU, how would you vote?" %

20. Table 3. Dynamics of answering the question: "If there was a referendum on the integration of Belarus and Russia, how would you vote?" %

21. Table 4. Dynamics of answering the question: "If you had to choose between integration with Russia and joining the European Union, what choice would you make?", %

22. Table 5. Distribution of answering the question: "Recently there has been an Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga, where Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia became yet even closer with the EU. Belarus remains aside from the process because of the problems with democracy and human rights. Some people think that our country should change its policy and approach the European Union as well, others disagree with this. What do you think?"% Options09'14 Belarus should change its policy and approach the EU as well 40.2 Belarus should not change its policy and approach the EU 27.7 It doesn’t matter to me 20.5 DA/NA 11.6

23. Table 6. Distribution of answering the question: “Last year V. Putin justified the annexation of Crimea by the restitution of historic territories of Russia and reunification of the "Russian World". Patriarch Kirill said that "Russian World" is a separate civilization, and people, who call themselves Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, are part of this civilization". Some people in Belarus express positive attitude towards the idea of the "Russian World", others are negative. What is your attitude? % Options06'15 Positive38.9 Indifferent39.4 Negative15.2 DA/NA6.5

24. Table 7. How do you evaluate work of the following national leaders? % Options PositivelyNegatively The President of Russia Vladimir Putin 60.020.3 The President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbaev 43.723.8 The President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping 35.424.2 The German Chancellor Angela Merkel 34.632.0 The President of Poland Bronisław Komorowski 24.831.6 The President of France François Hollande 23.430.3 The President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaitė 23.431.4 The President of the USA Barack Obama 13.559.1 The President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 10.167.0

25. Options09'1412'1403'1506'15 I’d resist up in arms 25.923.418.7 I’d try to adapt to a new situation 39.748.047.152.8 I’d greet these changes 13.39.715.012.1 DA/NA 21.118.919.216.4 Table 8. Dynamics of answering the question: "If Russia tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?", %

26. Options09'1412'1403'1506'15 I’d resist up in arms 26.025.823.330.6 I’d try to adapt to a new situation 40.039.645.346.0 I’d greet these changes 9.710.79.76.1 DA/NA 24.323.921.717.3 Table 9. Dynamics of answering the question: "If NATO tried to annex Belarus or its part with the help of armed forces, what would you do?", %

27. Table 10. Distribution of answering the question: “How do you evaluate the annexation of Crimea by Russia?“ % Options06'15 It’s an imperialistic usurpation and occupation 21.5 It’s a restitution of Russian lands and reestablishment of historical justice 62.3 DA/NA16.2

28. Table 11. Distribution of answering the question: "Do you support independence of Novorossiya?“ % Options06'15 Yes, people of Novorossiya have a right for self- determination 47.4 No, I support territorial integrity of Ukraine 27.0 There is no Novorossiya, there is only Russian aggression against Ukraine 10.5 DA/NA15.1

29. Table 12. Distribution of answering the question: "What is your attitude to the participation of Belarusian citizens in combat actions in the East of Ukraine?" % Options09'14 Positive, if they are on the side of Ukrainian army 6.0 Positive, if they are on the side of participants of armed protests 8.3 Negative 76.9 DA/NA 8.8

30. Table 13. Distribution of answering the question: "In the end of the past year Russia introduced a ban on importing foods from the EU countries, which earlier introduced sanctions against Russia as an answer to its policy in Ukraine. According to you, how should Belarus act in this conflict?“ % Options03'15 We should also introduce a ban, because Russia is our ally and Belarus should support it 17.0 Belarus should not associate itself with the ban; this is a conflict between the EU and Russia, it doesn’t concern Belarus 64.8 Belarus should join the EU sanctions against Russia 5.8 DA/NA12.4

31. Table 14. Distribution of answering the question: “If Russia decides to bring their troops into Ukraine, do you think Belarus should permit Russia to do it through Belarusian territory?“ % Options09'14 Yes 15.2 No 74.8 DA/NA10.0

32. Table 15. Distribution of answering the question: ""Recently the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force V. Bondarev announced that in 2015 Russia intends to quarter in Belarus an air- base with 24 SU-27 fighters. Some people fell positive about this idea, some people feel negative, and others are indifferent. What is your attitude to it?" % Options09'14 Negative 22.4 Positive 27.6 Indifferent 45.1 DA/NA4.9

33. Table 16. According to you, should Belarus (like Ukraine and Lithuania) ban the usage of Soviet and Nazi symbols? Options% Usage of both these types of symbols should be prohibited 17.9 Only usage of Nazi symbols should be prohibited 58.3 Only usage of Soviet symbols should be prohibited 2.2 Usage of these symbols should not be prohibited 21.1 DA/NA 0.5

34. Table 17. Dynamics of answering the question: “How do you assess President A. Lukashenka’s policy towards crisis in Ukraine?” % Options09'1412'1403'1506'15 Definitely positively14.813.617.519.9 Rather positively44.745.147.841.6 Rather negatively17.216.819.618.1 Definitely negatively9.612.94.715.6 DA/NA 13.711.610.414.8