1. a. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page version 27 October 2011 Title: Probabilistic Nearcasting of Severe Convection Status: New Duration: 2 years Project Leads: Michael Pavolonis/ NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/ Mike.Pavolonis@noaa.gov Daniel Lindsey/ NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/ dan.lindsey@noaa.gov Other Participants: Justin Sieglaff/ UW-CIMSS Dan Hartung/ UW-CIMSS Dan Bikos/ CIRA 1

2. b. Project Summary Using past GIMPAP funding, the temporal evolution of GOES Imager cloud properties were used to determine the probability that an immature cumulus cloud system will eventually meet severe criteria in the future. Our probabilistic model would benefit significantly from incorporating additional data sources such as NEXRAD and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model output (previous GIMPAP funding has shown the RUC, in combination with GOES BT’s, is useful for predicting large hail). Thus, we propose to continue to develop our probabilistic model by incorporating NEXRAD and RUC predictors (data fusion). 2

3. c. Motivation / Justification Weather forecasts and warnings is one of NOAA’s Mission Goals The addition of NEXRAD and RUC data will improve the skill of the probabilistic model (and cloud object tracking) and potentially allow for more specific predictions (e.g. probability of tornado, large hail, etc…). The proposed research addresses the growing need of the NWS to have access to “fused” products that are more valuable than satellite-alone, radar-alone, or NWP-alone products. Our goal is to predict if a given storm will meet severe weather criteria in the future and increase the warning lead-time relative to NEXRAD-only signatures. In an operational setting, forecasters would be able to potentially use our tool to issue a warn-on forecast or to issue a severe weather statement prior to the observation of radar-only indicated severe criteria depending on the storm cell’s (cloud object’s) assigned probability. 3

4. d. Methodology Using the WDSS-II object tracking software and a UW/CIMSS developed post-processing algorithm, we have developed the capability to track GOES cloud objects in time, which allows the time rate of change of certain cloud properties (e.g. cloud emissivity, cloud phase, cloud optical depth, etc…) within each object to be quantified. The time rate of change in certain cloud properties that capture the vertical and horizontal growth, as well as trends in cloud microphysics are used as predictors in the probabilistic model. Relevant RUC fields (e.g. CAPE, LI, helicity, etc…) and NEXRAD derived cloud microphysical and dynamical time trends will be incorporated into the probabilistic model and the end products will be evaluated using severe weather reports. 4

5. Los Angeles, CA 31 July - 04 August 2011 Feature 1 (Training Data) Severe vs. Non-Severe Convection 5 Max Vertical Growth Rate over 7 min period Sample means separate significantly to 99.99% confidence level All strong cells had at least one verified severe local storm report

6. Los Angeles, CA 31 July - 04 August 2011 6 Feature 2 (Training Data) Severe vs. Non-Severe Convection Max Horizontal Growth Rate over 7 min period Sample means separate significantly to 99.99% confidence level

7. Los Angeles, CA 31 July - 04 August 2011 7 Feature 3 (Training Data) Severe vs. Non-Severe Convection Max Cloud Top Glaciation Rate over 7 min period Sample means separate significantly to 99.99% confidence level

8. Los Angeles, CA 31 July - 04 August 2011 Bayes Probabilistic Model Output: 15 May 2009 Independent Case Study A severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 20:07 UTC based on NEXRAD indicated signatures received at 20:06 UTC. The GOES severe weather probability indicated an enhanced probability as early as 19:45 UTC (21 minutes prior to NEXRAD signatures). 1945 UTC GOES-12 1-km Vis and Probability of Severe Development 2015 UTC GOES-12 1-km Vis and Probability of Severe Development First reported severe wx for this storm occurred at 21:06 UTC

9. Los Angeles, CA 31 July - 04 August 2011 9 Bayes Probabilistic Model Output: 16 August 2010 Independent Case Study 2002 UTC GOES-12 1-km Vis and Probability of Severe Development 100 80 60 40 0 20 NA 0 1 10 25 100 75 50 VisRefl ProbSev The only severe weather reports (in this timeframe) were associated with the storm in PA.

10. e. Expected Outcomes Develop a fused GOES/RUC/NEXRAD product that can be used to objectively assess if a given immature storm will meet severe weather criteria in the future (usually 20 – 60 minutes in the future and ahead of NEXRAD-only indicators). Assess the impact of each data source on the skill of the prediction. Validation of end product 10

11. e. Possible Path to Operations Upon completion of the GIMPAP sponsored research we will seek an operational implementation of our probabilistic severe weather prediction model in operations through G-PSDI. The Proving Ground may also provide a vehicle to obtain user feedback. 11

12. f. Milestones Year 1 Acquire composite NEXRAD data and RUC model fields needed to train probabilistic model (the GOES training data set already exists). Modify automated cloud object tracking software to allow for combined satellite/NEXRAD cloud object definition and tracking. Determine which NEXRAD and RUC fields are the most skillful predictors of severe weather. Year 2 Integrate NEXRAD and RUC predictors into existing GOES severe weather probabilistic model, test, and validate results Publish peer-viewed paper on fused technique. 12

13. g. Funding Request (K) Funding SourcesProcurement Office Purchase Items FY12FY13 GIMPAPStAR Total Project Funding 94 K StAR Grant to CIMSS 60 K58 K StAR Grant to CIRA 30 K StAR Federal Travel 4 K (M. Pavolonis) StAR Federal Publication 2 K StAR Federal Equipment StAR Transfers to other agencies Other Sources 13

14. g. Spending Plan FY12 FY12 $94,000 Total Project Budget 1.Grant to CI 1.(CIMSS) –50 % FTE - $55,000 –Travel - $5,000 (two trips to conferences) –Publication charge - $0 2. (CIRA) –30 % FTE - $30,000 2.Federal Travel – $4,000 (M. Pavolonis) –EUMETSAT Satellite Conference (Sopot, Poland, September 2012) 3.Federal Publication Charges – $0 4.Federal Equipment - $0 5.Transfers to other agencies – $0 6.Other - $0 14

15. g. Spending Plan FY13 FY13 $94,000 Total Project Budget 1.Grant to CI 1.(CIMSS) –50 % FTE - $53,000 –Travel - $5,000 (two trips to conferences) –Publication charge - $2,000 2. (CIRA) –30 % FTE - $30,000 2.Federal Travel – $4,000 (M. Pavolonis) 3.Federal Publication Charges – $0 4.Federal Equipment - $0 5.Transfers to other agencies – $0 6.Other - $0 15