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Effect of calving interval on the economic results of dairy farms based on their typology Anne-Catherine Dalcq* 1, Yves Beckers 1, Patrick Mayeres 2, Benoit.

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Presentation on theme: "Effect of calving interval on the economic results of dairy farms based on their typology Anne-Catherine Dalcq* 1, Yves Beckers 1, Patrick Mayeres 2, Benoit."— Presentation transcript:

1 Effect of calving interval on the economic results of dairy farms based on their typology Anne-Catherine Dalcq* 1, Yves Beckers 1, Patrick Mayeres 2, Benoit Wyzen 2, Hélène Soyeurt 1 1 Université de Liège-Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Gembloux, Belgium, 2 Walloon Breeding Association, Ciney, Belgium

2 The calving interval is extending…

3 United States of America: 392  407 days from 1991 to 2002 (USDA, 2002)

4 The calving interval is extending… United States of America: 392  407 days from 1991 to 2002 (USDA, 2002) The Netherlands: 390  417 days from 1995 to 2012 (CRV, 2012)

5 The calving interval is extending… United States of America: 392  407 days from 1991 to 2002 (USDA, 2002) The Netherlands: 390  417 days from 1995 to 2012 (CRV, 2012) The Walloon Region (AWE, 2014) :

6 The calving interval is extending… United States of America: 392  407 days from 1991 to 2002 (USDA, 2002) The Netherlands: 390  417 days from 1995 to 2012 (CRV, 2012) The Walloon Region (AWE, 2014) :  Which impact on the economic results of the farm?

7 The calving interval is extending… United States of America: 392  407 days from 1991 to 2002 (USDA, 2002) The Netherlands: 390  417 days from 1995 to 2012 (CRV, 2012) The Walloon Region (AWE, 2014) :  Which impact on the economic results of the farm?  Which calving interval = current economic optimum?

8 Available data? -1568 balance sheets -Walloon Breeding Association -2007-2013 -373 farms  Geographical localisation : Région herbagère liégeoise

9 Available data? -1568 balance sheets -Walloon Breeding Association -2007-2013 -373 farms  Geographical localisation : Région herbagère liégeoise  Information per herd*year

10 Global approach Relation between gross margin/ cow and CI

11 Global approach Relation between gross margin/ cow and CI = total production (milk and meat) – variable costs (herd and feeding) = total production (milk and meat) – variable costs (herd and feeding)

12 Global approach Relation between gross margin/ cow and CI = total production (milk and meat) – variable costs (herd and feeding) = total production (milk and meat) – variable costs (herd and feeding)

13 Global approach Relation between gross margin/ cow and CI = total production (milk and meat) – variable costs (herd and feeding) = total production (milk and meat) – variable costs (herd and feeding) Not ONE economic optimum of CI  Several economic optimum of CI, depending on the farm?

14 Typological approach Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology

15 Which typology? Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Typological variables

16 Which typology? Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Ares of corn silage (CS)/ livestock unit (LU) Typological variables

17 Which typology? Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Ares of corn silage (CS)/ livestock unit (LU) Ares of grass/ LU Typological variables

18 Which typology? Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Ares of corn silage (CS)/ livestock unit (LU) Ares of grass/ LU Concentrate / cow Typological variables

19 Qualitative typological variables Which typology? Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Ares of corn silage (CS)/ livestock unit (LU) Ares of grass/ LU Concentrate / cow Numerical classification

20 Creation of groups showing the same typology Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Typological variables Qualitative typological variables 4 typological groups Multiple correspondence analysis

21 Description of the groups Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Typological variables Qualitative typological variables 4 typological groups Multiple correspondence analysis

22 Description of the groups Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Typological variables Qualitative typological variables 4 typological groups Multiple correspondence analysis

23 Description of the groups Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Typological variables Qualitative typological variables 4 typological groups Multiple correspondence analysis

24 Description of the groups Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Typological variables Qualitative typological variables 4 typological groups Multiple correspondence analysis

25 Typological variables Qualitative typological variables 4 typological groups Modelling economic results by CI Modelling in each group Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology

26 Modelling economic results in function of …  CI variables: -% cows in the herd with CI > 459 days organized in 4 classes Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology <17%18-26%27-37%>38%

27 Modelling economic results in function of …  CI variables: -CI profile organized in 5 classes determined by Numerical Classification on the variables Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology CI profile % of cows in the herd with CI < 380 days % of cows in the herd with 380 < CI < 419 days % of cows in the herd with 420 < CI < 459 days % of cows in the herd with CI > 459 days

28 Modelling economic results in function of …  CI variables: -CI profile organized in 5 classes determined by Numerical Classification on the variables Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology CI profileShort CI % of cows in the herd with CI < 380 days 52 % of cows in the herd with 380 < CI < 419 days 19 % of cows in the herd with 420 < CI < 459 days 9 % of cows in the herd with CI > 459 days 18

29 Modelling economic results in function of …  CI variables: -CI profile organized in 5 classes determined by Numerical Classification on the variables Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology CI profileShortLong CI % of cows in the herd with CI < 380 days 5228 % of cows in the herd with 380 < CI < 419 days 1917 % of cows in the herd with 420 < CI < 459 days 913 % of cows in the herd with CI > 459 days 1841

30 Modelling economic results in function of …  CI variables: -CI profile organized in 5 classes determined by Numerical Classification on the variables Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology CI profileShortInter. AInter. BInter. CLong CI % of cows in the herd with CI < 380 days 52 273037 28 % of cows in the herd with 380 < CI < 419 days 19 242019 17 % of cows in the herd with 420 < CI < 459 days 9 271418 13 % of cows in the herd with CI > 459 days 18 2225 41

31 Milk production & calving interval -No significant relations between gross margin/ cow and CI variables Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology

32 Milk production & calving interval -No significant relations between gross margin/ cow and CI variables -Assumption : In a given group, economic results when milk production Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology

33 Milk production & calving interval -No significant relations between gross margin/ cow and CI variables -Assumption : In a given group, economic results when milk production Study of the relation between the economic results and the CI in groups of farms showing the same typology Pearson’s r : milk production/ cow & gross margin/ cow Intensive groupLess intensive group Intensive group without CS Extensive group 0.54***0.56***0.53***0.55***

34 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive groupLess intensive group a

35 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive groupLess intensive group a

36 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive groupLess intensive group a

37 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive groupExtensive group a

38 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive groupExtensive group a

39 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive group Intensive group without CS a

40 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive group Intensive group without CS a

41 Why ? Longer voluntary waiting period (10 weeks vs 6 weeks) = economically optimum under some conditions (Inchaisri et al., 2011):

42 Why ? Longer voluntary waiting period (10 weeks vs 6 weeks) = economically optimum under some conditions (Inchaisri et al., 2011): -No Holstein-Friesian breed In the dataset used : Intensive group Less intensive group Intensive group without CS Extensive group % herds in the group with Hostein as main breed 92916762

43 Why ? Longer voluntary waiting period (10 weeks vs 6 weeks) = economically optimum under some conditions (Inchaisri et al., 2011): -No Holstein-Friesian breed -Low herd milk production

44 Milk production in function of CI in EACH group Intensive groupExtensive group a

45 Why ? Longer voluntary waiting period (10 weeks vs 6 weeks) = economically optimum under some conditions (Inchaisri et al., 2011): -No Holstein-Friesian breed -Low herd milk production -High milk persistency

46 Why ? Longer voluntary waiting period (10 weeks vs 6 weeks) = economically optimum under some conditions (Inchaisri et al., 2011): -No Holstein-Friesian breed -Low herd milk production -High milk persistency Better persistency (670 days in milk (DIM)) for cows pasture fed (daily dietary intake 160 MJ of ME/cow) >< total mixed ration (TMR) fed (Grainger et al., 2009)

47 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd

48 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd  averaged information

49 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd  averaged information  low tendencies observed

50 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd  averaged information  low tendencies observed -Future research  information per cow

51 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd  averaged information  low tendencies observed -Future research  information per cow -explain the present results (persistency)

52 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd  averaged information  low tendencies observed -Future research  information per cow -explain the present results (persistency) -confirm the low tendencies observed

53 Limits on the current research and further analyses -Information per herd  averaged information  low tendencies observed -Future research  information per cow -explain the present results (persistency) -confirm the low tendencies observed  identify CI objectives for dairy farmers

54 Acknowledgments -Unit of Modelling and Development, Gx-ABT, Ulg -University of Liège -Walloon Breeding Association

55 Take home message Different technicoeconomic optimum of calving interval, depending on the typology Optimum of CI = Intensive: Short CIExtensive: Long CI E-mail : anne-catherine.dalcq@ulg.ac.be

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