1. What does a national recession mean for Roanoke? 26 January 2009 Roanoke, Virginia Presented by Jon Roberts TIP Strategies, Inc. Austin, Texas

2. Agenda Who is TIP? The national picture – how bad is bad? What’s right about Roanoke? The regional response and the federal agenda Discussion

3. Who is TIP?

4. Strategic Planning Industry Cluster Analysis Workforce Development Entrepreneurship Site Selection & Analysis Defense Communities TIP Strategies

5. TIP framework Focus on Economic Vitality

6. US Canada UK Netherlands TIP project footprint

7. So why are you here?

8. The National Picture

9. Demographic and Industry Trends

10. us | a labor crisis approaches SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

11. us | private sector employment

12. Trend: U.S. Manufacturing Employment

13. SOURCES: US Bureau Labor Statistics; Economy.com US | manufacturing vs. services

14. The shock of recent events Housing sector decline Energy price volatility Financial crisis (credit & liquidity) Currency fluctuations

15. Economic effects Rising unemployment (while talent availability declines) Retail sector contraction Continuing decline in housing Automotive sector consolidation & retrenchment Inability of businesses to expand Declining IPOs mean less venture investment Overall reduction in business start-ups Tightening credit availability for municipalities Reduction in exports due to weak European markets

16. Recessionary Trends Based on employment gain and loss, real estate trends, income

17. Net Change in Jobs, Nov 2007 - Nov 2008 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s Analytics. 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 Roanoke

18. Percent Change in Jobs, Nov 2007 - Nov 2008 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s Analytics. 1 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 Roanoke

19. Stocks Fall to 7,500 – Have we Reached Bottom? April 1, 2009

20. Retail sales stubbornly refuse to rebound: 250,000 stores shuttered Wednesday, April 1, 2009

21. Unemployment Rate Doubles Over Last Year – August 8, 2009 Jobless Rate Doubles to 10.2% : March 2008 – March 2009

22. What’s Right about Roanoke?

23. Rapid population growth forecasted

24. Attractive to retirees

25. Roanoke is a destination

26. Close links to Lynchburg & Blacksburg

27. Job base is well-diversified

28. Most key sectors are growing

29. 2004 – 2006 strong years for key sectors

30. Major Area Employers 1 Carilion Clinic 2 Roanoke City Public Schools 3 Roanoke County Public Schools 4 Commonwealth of Virginia 5 City of Roanoke 6 Kroger 7 Wachovia 8 Norfolk Southern 9 Wal-Mart Stores 10 Veterans Administration Hospital 11 Franklin County Public Schools 12 Advance Auto Parts 13 United States Government 14 Allstate 15 Lewis-Gale Medical Center 16 M W Manufacturers Inc 17 Roanoke County, VA 18 United Parcel Service 19 Yokohama Tire Corp 20 Manpower Temporary Services

31. What’s right about Roanoke? talent, innovation, place TALENT why it matters: –linked to income growth generally –correlation to new business formation how you measure it: –educational attainment –occupational composition

32. What’s right about Roanoke? talent, innovation, place INNOVATION why it matters: –linked to profitability –promotes competitiveness how you measure it: –R&D investment –Patents, contracts, alliances

33. What’s right about Roanoke? talent, innovation, place PLACE why it matters: –linked to school quality, public safety, connectivity –demonstrates civic commitment how you measure it: –property values & appreciation rates –Rebecca Ryan’s seven indices –“from inside and outside”

34. Regional Responses

35. Risks and liabilities Declining wealth of retirees Over-reliance on non-primary employment Weak IT and professional service sector Unfocused marketing

36. What does a forward-looking community do in a recession? retain and consolidate position secure federally-funded infrastructure projects launch sustainability initiatives

37. Discussion

38. 7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305 Austin, TX 78731 512.343.9113 tel 512.343.9190 fax www.TIPstrategies.com jon@tipstrategies.com Thank You TIP Strategies, Inc.