1. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Southeast River Forecast Center North Florida Visit July 17-20, 2006 Southeast River Forecast Center North Florida Visit July 17-20, 2006 Jeff Dobur Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center Jeff Dobur Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center

2. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center TOPICS River Forecasts – How are they created? River Forecasts – How are they created? Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations Challenges for North Florida Hydrology Challenges for North Florida Hydrology River Forecasts – How are they created? River Forecasts – How are they created? Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations Challenges for North Florida Hydrology Challenges for North Florida Hydrology

3. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center River Forecasts – How are they created? Need Data About 500 Hydrologic Data Gages About 2200 Rainfall Data Gages About 29 WSR-88Ds

4. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center River Forecasts – How are they created? Basic Forecast Process Observed Precipitation Observed Precipitation Future Precipitation Future Precipitation SAC-SMA Model Rain to Runoff SAC-SMA Model Rain to Runoff Basin Watershed Rating Curve Stages to Flows Rating Curve Stages to Flows Unit Hydrograph Runoff to Flow Unit Hydrograph Runoff to Flow Upstream Flow River Gage Basin Local Flow Total Flow (cfs) Total Flow (cfs) Forecaster Modification Forecaster Modification Forecast To WFO Forecast To WFO

5. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Sacramento Runoff Model River Forecasts – How are they created?

6. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center River Forecasts – How are they created? IFP – Forecaster Adjustments

7. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center River Forecasts – How are they created? Forecast To WFO Forecast To WFO Public/EMA/Media Stage Forecast Flood Warning

8. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Four Functions of RFC 1.Continuous hydrometeorological data assimilation, river basin modeling, and hydrologic forecast preparation. 2.Technical support and interaction with WFOs. 3.Technical support and interaction with outside water management agencies and users. 4.Performance of non-real-time operational work which includes model calibration and database management. 1.Continuous hydrometeorological data assimilation, river basin modeling, and hydrologic forecast preparation. 2.Technical support and interaction with WFOs. 3.Technical support and interaction with outside water management agencies and users. 4.Performance of non-real-time operational work which includes model calibration and database management.

9. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Major Basin Groups

10. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations SERFC North Florida Forecast Sites 19 Suwannee 4 Apalachicola 1 Choctawhatchee 7 South Alabama SERFC North Florida Forecast Sites 19 Suwannee 4 Apalachicola 1 Choctawhatchee 7 South Alabama Daily Forecasts Flood Only Forecasts More to come!

11. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Monitor heavy rain relative to Basins in real time Monitor to both observed and expected rain Monitor spatial distribution relative to basins Stay ahead of the rain Monitor heavy rain relative to Basins in real time Monitor to both observed and expected rain Monitor spatial distribution relative to basins Stay ahead of the rain Rain relative to basin Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Recent Projects and Improvements

12. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Recent Projects and Improvements Fast Response Basins Site Specific Model

13. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Recent Projects and Improvements

14. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Recent Projects and Improvements Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Generalized procedure for making medium and long-range probabilistic forecasts of streamflow and streamflow related variables = Water Resource Tool.

15. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations Recent Projects and Improvements Flood Mapping used alongside E-19 Impact Data

16. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations Improve on recent projects – flood mapping, ESP, etc Distributed Hydrologic Modeling vs Lumped Model Storm Surge Flood Prediction – Flood Wave, Hydraulic modeling Improved Small Basin Flash Flood Guidance Better and more timely rainfall prediction More to come! Improve on recent projects – flood mapping, ESP, etc Distributed Hydrologic Modeling vs Lumped Model Storm Surge Flood Prediction – Flood Wave, Hydraulic modeling Improved Small Basin Flash Flood Guidance Better and more timely rainfall prediction More to come! Future Projects and Improvements

17. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Challenges for North Florida Hydrology Population Increases and Urban Flooding Spatial distribution of the average annual number of flash flood events per 1000 square miles by county across the southeastern United States from 1994-2004. Red color shades indicate areas of elevated numbers of flash flood events.

18. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Tools for improved Water Management Challenges for North Florida Hydrology Water Rights and Water Resources

19. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Challenges for North Florida Hydrology Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding

20. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding Challenges for North Florida Hydrology

21. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center

22. National Weather Service - Southeast River Forecast Center Challenges for North Florida Hydrology Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding

23. National Weather Service – Southeast River Forecast Center Many Hydrologic Challenges Ahead For Our Communities Improved Skill and Awareness will be Key to Our Success Thank You