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Jabavu Nkomo and Calvin Atewamba ACPC Presentation to AGN 13 August 2012 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa.

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Presentation on theme: "Jabavu Nkomo and Calvin Atewamba ACPC Presentation to AGN 13 August 2012 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jabavu Nkomo and Calvin Atewamba ACPC Presentation to AGN 13 August 2012 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa

2 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa StudyMethodologyTime Period RegionSectorsEstimates (US$ billion per annum) Figures for Africa (US$ billion per annum) World Bank (2006World Bank (2006) Accounting/ project methods, analysis of official flows exposed to climate risk, costs of “climate- proofing are assumed in the analysis Short termDeveloping countries All9-41 0.3 Stern (2007Stern (2007)Update, with slight modification, of the World Bank study Short termDeveloping countries All4-37 UNEP (2007UNEP (2007)World Bank study, plus costing of targets for adapting poverty reduction programmes and strengthening disaster response of the system 2015Developing countries All86-109 Oxfam (2007Oxfam (2007)World Bank study, plus slight modifications of cost estimates from NAPAs and NGO projects Short termDeveloping countries All50+

3 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa StudyMethodologyTime Period RegionSectorsEstimates (US$ billion per annum) Figures for Africa (US$ billion per annum) UNFCCC (2007UNFCCC (2007) Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region 2030Developing5- Agriculture, water, health, costal zones, infrastructure 28-67 UNFCCC (2007UNFCCC (2007) Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region 2030Global5- Agriculture, water, health, costal zones, infrastructure 44-166 7.2-9.9 World Bank (2010World Bank (2010) Markets/sectoral methods: Disaggregating the analysis by sector and world region 2050GlobalAgriculture, water, social, health, costal zones, infrastructure, Extreme weather events 70-100 18 Fankhauser and Schmidt- Traub (2010Fankhauser and Schmidt- Traub (2010) Accounting/ project methods, climate proofing the MDGs based on previous global estimates of adaptation costs, disaggregating the analysis by sector 2020AfricaAgriculture & nutrition, nutrition & school feeding, education, health, infrastructure, statistics, additional interventions 11-21

4 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Sectors UNFCCC (2007) World Bank (2010) Global National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), wettest scenario Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), driest scenario Global Sub-Sahara AfricaGlobalSub-Sahara Africa Infrastructure 2 - 4127.53.413,51.5 Water supply and flood protection 914.46.619.77.8 Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 72.61.12*2.51.09* Human health 520.81.50.6 Coastal zones 528.53.2**27.63.2** Extreme weather events -6.72.496.52.59 Total 28-6781.517.6171.216.78

5 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa StudiesRegions/countries Sea level rise considered Protection level (% of coastline protected) % GDP or GNP or Annual protection cost (US$ million) Tol, Fankhauser et al. (1998Tol, Fankhauser et al. (1998) African Atlantic Coast African Indian Ocean Coast 1m 89% 0.25% 0.38% Nicholls and Tol (2006Nicholls and Tol (2006) Mozambique Guinea-Bissau 20-35 cm by 2080 N/A 0.1-0.8 % GDP 0-0.6% GDP SEI (2009SEI (2009)Kenya 0.17 - 1.26 m from 1995 to 2100 Total 28-56 by 2030; 80 by 2050

6 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa StudiesRegions/countries Sea level rise considered Protection level (% of coastline protected) Annual protection cost (US$ billion) World Bank (2010World Bank (2010) Sub-Sahara Africa 5.9-27.3 cm by 2050 (average); max 40.2- 126.3 cm by 2100 Total3.2 Nicholls (2007)Africa 8.9-9.1 cm by 2030 (average); max 44.4 – 52.7 cm by 2080 N/A0.53 – 1.32 Tol (2002Tol (2002) Africa1m80%0.92 Deke, Hooss et al. (2001Deke, Hooss et al. (2001) Sub-Sahara Africa1mTotal0.44

7 7 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa

8 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Fund’s nameTypeAdministeredArea of focus Date Operational Adaptation Fund (AF)Multilateral Adaptation Fund Board Adaptation2009 GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 4) Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF) Adaptation, Mitigation- general 2006 GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 5) Multilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF) Adaptation, Mitigation- general 2010 Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) Multilateral The European Commission Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD 2008 Green Climate Fund (GCF) Multilateral GCF to be confirmed Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD Not yet operational Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund (ICCTF) MultilateralIndonesia’s National Development Planning Agency Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation-REDD 2010

9 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Fund’s nameTypeAdministeredArea of focus Date Operational International Climate Fund (ICF) BilateralGovernment of United Kingdom Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation- REDD 2011 International Climate Initiative (ICI) BilateralGovernment of Germany Adaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation- REDD 2008 Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) MultilateralThe Global Environment Facility (GEF) Adaptation2002 MDG Achievement Fund- Environment and Climate thematic window (MDG) MultilateralUNDPAdaptation, Mitigation- general 2007 Pilot Program for Climate Resilience MultilateralThe World BankAdaptation2008 Special Climate Change FundMultilateral The Global Environment Facility (GEF) Adaptation2002 Strategic Climate Fund (SCF)Multilateral The World BankAdaptation, Mitigation- general, Mitigation- REDD 2008 Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA) MultilateralThe Global Environment Facility (GEF) Adaptation2004

10 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Fund’s name GlobalSub-Sahara Africa PledgedDepositedApprovedDisbursedApprovedDisbursed Adaptation Fund (AF) 115.96115.91109.2216.93 GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 4) 753.74 989.69900.53106.8888.24 GEF Trust Fund – Climate Change focal area (GEF 5) 1,1411,048.10170.492.95 Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) 226.12224.62296.81130.9952 Green Climate Fund (GCF) International Climate Fund (ICF) 4,6401,318.20231.440

11 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Fund’s name GlobalSub-Sahara Africa PledgedDepositedApprovedDisbursedApprovedDisbursed International Climate Initiative (ICI) 851.28 655.250 Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) 396.24349.73180.32115.049060 MDG Achievement Fund- Environment and Climate thematic window (MDG) 89.5 89.5286.27 Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) 514273.8164.564.3011427 Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) 216.55170.65125.1791.620 Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA) 0047.95 Total 8,9635,204.343,066.71,402.07

12 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa

13 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa

14 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Global Adaptation FinanceAfrica PledgedDepositedApprovedDisbursed Adaptation Finance Disbursed Annual costs of Adaptation 8,947.445,188.783,066.701,402.07419.0518,000-30,000

15 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa Source: AGF (2010)

16 African Climate Policy Centre Costs and Finance of Adaptation for Africa

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