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CohnReznick LLP 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference LIHTC Equity Market Update May 20, 2015 0.

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Presentation on theme: "CohnReznick LLP 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference LIHTC Equity Market Update May 20, 2015 0."— Presentation transcript:

1 CohnReznick LLP 2015 CAHEC Partners Conference LIHTC Equity Market Update May 20, 2015 0

2 LIHTC Equity Market Overview  The market demand for housing tax credit investments has never been stronger…..and there is no sign of that demand letting up at any point in the foreseeable future….and why should it?  U.S. bank profits continue to expand  The modest annual growth in the annual volume cap is literally swamped by growth on the demand side  LIHTC investment yields…even in their current “free fall” state are still superior to most investment alternatives  Thanks to your friends the accountants… the financial statement reporting for LIHTC investments is vastly improved  There are no legislative threats to our biggest demand engine – the Community Reinvestment Act  I only see one dark cloud on the horizon….Tax Reform….and for those who say that this particular cloud will never burst….I would remind them that a certain amount of rain is inevitable……even in California May 20, 2015 1

3 Equity Market – Current Fund Offerings SponsorSize ($MM) Est. After-Tax IRR (%) Est. Tax Credit Price ($)LaunchEst. Close A1255.751.04MarchJune/July B1006.001.04JanuaryMarch C1505.001.17FebruaryJune/July D1506.251.012014March E1306.001.06FebruaryJune F1126.001.03-1.052014July G1256.001.05AprilJune/July H1505.50-5.75TBDMarchJune/July I2006.501.1FebruaryMay J1106.151.03FebruaryMay 2 May 20, 2015

4 Tax Credit Price/Yield- 1990-2015 3 May 20, 2015

5 Tax Credit Price/Yield- 2010-2015 May 20, 2015 4

6 Accounting Method Adoption Status as of 2015 Q1 At this point it appears that a majority of the largest bank investors have adopted the new accounting method. This is a summary based on our review of SEC Form 10-Q filings for 2015 Q1. Among the Top 10 U.S. banks: - Adopted: JP Morgan Chase, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Bank of NY Mellon, US Bancorp, PNC Not adopted: Bank of America, Wells Fargo Among the Top 30 U.S. banks: Adopted: Capital One, HSBC, BB&T, Ally, SunTust, Citizens, Regions, Key Bank, Union Bank Not adopted: Fifth Third Many of the smaller banks in top 100 have also adopted including M&T, City National, Comerica, First Republic and E*Trade 5 May 20, 2015

7 2009 Equity Market 6 May 20, 2015

8 2014 Equity Market 7 May 20, 2015

9 Where will the equity market be at this point in 2016 ?  The precise answer to this question is….I don’t have a clue...and don’t trust anyone that tells you they know the answer  What I do know is that demand will continue to be strong and so I would predict that everyone in this room that shows up for work everyday will have a job  My intuition is that the increase in tax credit pricing will taper off at some point….we will see interest rates rise and the market will start moving towards something that resembles equilibrium  I do not believe the GSE’s will return in their traditional roles  I believe we will see the beginning of LIHTC industry consolidation in 2015/2016  As far as tax reform is concerned? Same answer as above….I have no clue…. what I do know is that everyone that cares about the housing credit has a role to play in its preservation 8 May 20, 2015


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