1. Marine Core Service MY OCEAN WP 8 Monitoring & Forecasting Centre for IBI

2. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Partnership CLS: Collecte Localisation Satellites, Toulouse, France. CNRS (POC): Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Toulouse, France. MO: Mercator Océan, Toulouse, France. NERC (POL): National Environment Research Council, Liverpool, UK. PDE: Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain. WP 8 IBI MFC Coord.: MO R&D MO PDE CNRS NERC Development Maintenance MO PDE CLS Production MO PDE CLS Cal/Val MO PDE CNRS NERC

3. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Main objectives: q Ensure transition between two (very) different systems for short term forecasting over the IBI area: q Test multivariate data assimilation implementation (integration scheduled during MyOcean 2) n Main issues: q Gap between NEMO and dedicated coastal models: Need for new numerical schemes (time stepping, higher order advection schemes) and simulation of additional physical processes (tides, atmospheric pressure forcing,…) Þ MUST ensure no product regression from V0 POLCOMS system. q Data assimilation implementation is challenging both on a scientific and technical point of view: high resolution, high frequencies (tides), adequacy of schemes and observational datasets for both deep and shallow ocean, … Reminder - Objectives for R&D V0 (ESEOAT) POLCOMS code coastal processes oriented V1, V2 NEMO code, (Originally) basin scale/climate processes oriented

4. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma R&D : main achievements n Main achievements are n An improved bathymetry, merging best local databases (CNRS and NWS) n Implementation of new numerical schemes: n Revised time splitting scheme (solves tracers conservation issues with tides) n Implement state of the art 2 equations vertical mixing scheme (Generic Length Scale Model, Umlauf and Burchard, 2003) n New tracer horizontal advection schemes: Quickest (Leonard, 1979) and PPM (Piecewise Parabolic Method, James 1996). n Improved model physics / high frequency processes n 3h atmospheric forcing / diurnal cycle n Add ocean color effects on solar radiation penetration (based on a merged Seawifs/Ifremer kpar climatology). n Atmospheric pressure forcing (surge component) n Correction of shortwave and longwave radiation based on CMS satellite data. n Studied “optimal strategy” for operational scenario (sequential restarting from GLO MFC) n Performed runs for calibration report. n Performed 2 years hindcast with multivariate data assimilation (SEEK filter) with tides at moderate horizontal resolution (1/12°) n Remaining activities/objectives: n Activation of solar radiation forcing correction in operational context n Add real time river discharge data. n Wave/ocean coupling: effects of wave induced stress on wind and surface roughness. n Improve data assimilation implementation (use of high resolution SST. Activate surge component). n Initiate research on alternative data assimilation scheme (EnKF ?)

5. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Improved bathymetry and tides M2 amplitude error [m] vs FES2004 M2 phase error [°] vs FES2004 Improved bathymetry Gebco 1’ R&D : main achievements

6. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma R&D : main achievements Publications IBI R&D team involved in the following publications (making use of IBIV1 products): Reverdin et al., 2010: Freshwater from the Bay of Biscay shelves in 2009, submitted for publication. Martin et al., 2011: Remote sensing of sea surface salinity from CAROLS L-band radiometer in t-he Gulf of Biscay, submitted for publication in Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. System description and assessment: Cailleau et al., 2010: The new regional generation of Mercator Ocean system in the Iberian Biscay Irish (IBI) area. Mercator quarterly newsletter, 39. Maraldi et al., 2011: NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia – Biscay – Ireland configuration. In preparation.

7. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Dev. & Maintenance n Objectives, difficulties –Implement and maintain IBI MFC on production machines. –Set up interfaces with MFCs, TAC, service desk, external product providers –Ensure version transitioning (link with 8.2). –Analysis and prevention of divergences between production units. n V0 n ESEOAT system. System maintained. No development planned. n V1, V2 n Development and maintenance of a new NEMO 1/36° system in both production units (PdE and MO)

8. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Dev. & Maint. : main achievements n Main achievements are n Maintenance of V0 system. n Set-up automatic provision of GLO MFC products for OBC and initial states. n Set-up pre-processing of ECMWF forcing files (Nominal PU). n Nominal system (PdE): System tested and transferred on nominal production machine (CESGA). n Backup System (MO): System tested and transferred on backup production machine (Meteo France). n Intensive checking of exact reproducibility of each sub-component (from ECMWF forcing preprocessing to output generation). Code optimization. n Implementation an test software for output dissemination (MIS). n Main difficulties n Transition from V0 to V1 for nominal PU implied deep re-engineering of most of the sub- systems (model, inputs, forcings, computing environment). n Development synchronization between Pus. n Unexpected divergences due to the different computing environments. n Remaining tasks n Meta-data exchange between PUs (switch from nominal to backup)

9. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Production n Objectives n Monitoring and control the input data. n Maintaining the production chains in operations. n Maintaining the servers for the delivery of numerical products. n Difficulties n Heavy workload. Risk on synchronisation between Pus, timeliness. n Anomaly identification and correction must be coordinated so that the shared system remain the same all along the configurations. n Steps n Test daily production of V1 by both Pus: Monitor system performances (timeliness), failures, dataflow. n Starting at spring 2010 in Mercator & in winter 2011 in PdE. n In parallel, check consistency between PUs is performed.

10. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Cal / Val n Objectives n Perform routine operational qualification of products. n V1 vs V0 performances n V1 Upgrades: Set up a methodology for R&D to monitor continuous improvement during V1 lifecycle. n Scientific interaction with other WP on overlapping areas (NWS). n Steps n Data inventory and implementation of off-line co-localization systems. n Integrate specific metrics adapted to coastal processes and risk monitoring.

11. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Production : main achievements n Main achievements are n V0 system ran daily since T0 by PdE and fulfilling service requirements at T0+6. n Cal/Val interface based on PdE insitu network (temperature, currents) run operationally. n V1 Backup system pre-operational on a weekly basis since April 2010. n Both V1 systems are run daily since April 2011 meeting timeliness requirements. n Main difficulties n Develop links between PUs. Need for a strong coordination in case of nominal system failure. Solution Likeness control n Remaining objectives n V1 full system production (integration of CAL/VAL procedures from WP8.5)

12. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements n Main achievements are n Delivered calibration report for system acceptance: V1 gives equivalent or even better results than V0.

13. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma IBI V0 vs IBI V1 IBI v0 (ESEOAT) SST RMS error August 2008 (CMS data) IBI V1IBI V0 => Comparison between V0 and V1 systems show overall equivalent or better performances

14. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements n Main achievements are n Delivered calibration report for system acceptance: V1 gives equivalent or even better results than V0. n Daily system monitoring: Flexible Online validation interface developed by PdE (Model vs in situ, SST, climatology, GLO MFC).

15. CLASS2 Cal/Val : main achievements

16. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements IBI MFC outputs daily validated with the MyO IBI-insituTAC obs.

17. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements Recent example: From last Monday IBI run

18. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements n Main achievements are n Delivered calibration report for system acceptance: V1 gives equivalent or even better results than V0. n Daily system monitoring: Flexible Online validation interface developed by PdE (Model vs. in situ, SST, climatology, GLO MFC). n Remaining tasks n Set-up indicators to monitor important physical processes (e.g. upwelling activity, slope current anomaly). n Comparison with NWS. n Integrate automatic comparison with IBIROOS sub-models.

19. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Scientific Challenges –Is NEMO now suitable for shelf processes modeling: yes ! –Some processes (Med-overflows) over this area are still problematic to simulate. Mainly due to a lack of vertical and/or horizontal resolution => make use of NEMO on-line refinement capability on key areas (AGRIF ?) –Reduce dependency on GLO system accuracy. n Technical Challenges –Reduce overall computational time. n Operational Challenges –Develop links between PUs. Need for a strong coordination in case of nominal system failure. n Ultimate Challenges –Integrate data assimilation in operational system. Main Challenges

20. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Scientific Challenges –Towards an integrated coupled system: Wave + ocean + biochemistry. –Multiyear reanalysis. –Data assimilation at small scales and high frequencies. n Technical Challenges –Limited computational resources and storage for long (>10 years) model integration (needed for instance for reanalysis). n Ultimate Challenges –Adequacy of products with users needs. –Provide indicators on system predictability. n Main Risks –Limited human resources Future Challenges

21. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : –April 2010: First AM & pre-operational launch. –December 2010: MyOcean science days and R&D review –February 2011: IBI internal meeting in Madrid. PdE nominal system integration finalized. –April 2011: IBI connected to MIS. V1 system integrated and tested. V1 quality equivalent or better than V0. n Future : –June 2011 : Start production (stream 2). –September 2011 : assess upgrades for V2. Calendar

22. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Some illustrations… Xynthia storm (27-28 Feb 2010) as seen by IBIV1 system

23. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Some illustrations… MyOcean website, Sep. 2010: IBIV1 product showcase