1. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Cloud Cover Changes and Their Impacts on Solar Energy Production in North America PERD Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector (CCIES) Mid-term Workshop, Toronto 22-24 January 2003 Sunling Gong Air Quality Research Branch

2. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada

3. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Solar Energy The more the cloud cover, the less the solar energy reaching the surface. It can also be influenced by the latitude (seasonally ) and altitude of the spot.

4. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Climate Scenarios IPCC climate change scenarios: –e.g. CCIS – National Climate Scenarios facility –Crude on the impact of anthropogenic aerosols –Lack of details or regional perspectives –Local emissions are not well represented.

5. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada To provide information on the impacts of climate change on the availability of solar energy in Canada. 1.Establish the scientific tools to study the impact of cloud changes under various climate change scenarios; 2.Investigate the current cloud cover patterns and trends over Canada; 3.Study the impacts of climate change on the availability of solar energy in Canada using the tool developed by taking into account more detailed regional emissions; Objective

6. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Aerosols and Clouds Serve as CCN. Redistribute the cloud liquid water  cloud radius, albedo. Cause a longer life time of clouds  cloud cover. Change the chemical composition, albedo. Quench precipitation  hydrology cycles, e.g. less precipitation in Asia.

7. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada CAM (Canadian Aerosols Module)

8. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada

9. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada NARCM Model description Canadian Regional Climate Model: CRCM CGCM physics Canadian Aerosol Model (CAM) Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) Explicit Cloud Mode – Aerosol-cloud interactions Multiple nested grids Resolution: 100km 22 levels 12 bins, 5 species – sea-salt, sulphate, BC/OC and soil dust

10. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Experiments and Data 1.Experiments with/without aerosols are designed; 2.NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data (6h) is used as lateral condition and each experiment is integrated for 2 years; 3.Monthly averaged ISCCP cloud cover data is used for comparison with simulation.

11. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada With Aerosols Original RCM ISCCP Observations

12. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada With Aerosols Original RCM ISCCP Observations

13. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada W m -2 With Aerosols Original RCM

14. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada W m -2 With Aerosols Original RCM

15. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Primary results Cloud cover and solar radiation distributions in North America are more reasonably simulated by NARCM compared with RCM: –When aerosols are taken into account, NARCM can give a better description of the main characteristics of cloud cover compared with ISCCP data, including pattern and magnitude, and also a reasonable solar radiation distribution in North America; –RCM considerably overestimated the total cloud cover in North America, especially in northern territory, including Greenland Island and western Atlantic Ocean;

16. Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Future work (1)NARCM will be run for a few more years to simulate cloud-radiation changes in recent decade. (2)Under IPCC climate and emission scenario A1, NARCM will be run to simulate the future cloud and radiation change trends. (3)Investigate the future trends in solar energy availability and provide a map of the future solar energy availability across Canada. (4)Precipitation changes due to aerosols.