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P&K Securities The Greek Stock Market October 2000
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Macroeconomic environment Greece’s formal entry into the Eurozone on January 1 st, 2001 has been officially ratified. Real GDP growth projections for Greece at 4.1% and 5% for 2000 and 2001 respectively, exceed that of Eurozone’s average (3.4% and 3% for 2001 and 2001). Full convergence requires a further fall of interbank drachma interest rates (expected 250 bps). Macroeconomic stability prevails in Greece The Greek Stock Market October 00 Page 2
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Page 3 Macroeconomic indicators The Greek Stock Market October 00
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Stock market Bullish equity market (ATG up 102.2% in 1999). Other developed markets: DJIA (+25.22%), Nasdaq (+85.59%), Hang- Seng (+68.80%), DAX (+39.10%), FTSE (+17.81%), and CAC-40 (+51.12%). Market cap has doubled since 1998 (from Grd 22,863 m to GRD 44,579 m). Average daily volume has tripled since 1998 (from Grd 53,617 m to GRD 150,945 m). Blue chips have performed better since 1998. Banks and Telecoms represent one third of volume traded. Greek Equity Market October 00 Page 4
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Athens Stock Exchange Page 5 Greek Equity Market October 00
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Equity market indicators The Greek Stock Market October 00 Page 6
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Breakdown of volume traded The Greek Stock Market October 00 Page 7
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Funds Great interest in IPOs and Rights Issues imply cash-rich companies At the end of 1998, equity mutual funds held only a 6% stake of the mutual funds market. In early 00 equity mutual funds had increased their stake to 40.9%. At the end of September 00, equity mutual funds held a 30.4% stake of total mutual fund market. We expect that in the long term the trend towards equity funds will resume, with their market share approaching that of the European average (48%). The Greek Stock Market October 00 Page 8
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Flow of funds The Greek Stock Market October 00 Page 9
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Market Indices On July 31 st Morgan Stanley Capital International decided to include Greece to its developed markets indices, effective from May 31 st, 2001. The capitalization of MSCI Greece increased by 27.6% (from Usd 47 bn to Usd 60 bn). Page 10 The Greek Stock Market October 00
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Key sectors in Greece Page 11 Greek Equity Market October 00 Financials, Telecoms and the Energy Sector have a heavy weight in the Greek market cap. The sale of a minority stake of Public Power Corporation and of Hellenic Petroleum to strategic partners is on schedule.
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Page 12 The Greek Stock Market October 00 Indices valuation P&K Universe which accounts for 86% of total market cap trades at a P/E of 16.5x and an EV/EBIT of 23.6x 00e MSCI Greece which accounts for 51% of total market cap trades at a P/E of 16.8x and an EV/EBIT of 22.7x 00e General index which accounts for 58% of total market cap trades at a P/E of 15.3x and an EV/EBIT of 24.4x 00e
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Comparison At 16.5x 00e P/E compared with a European 24.4x the Greek market looks cheap Page 13 The Greek Stock Market October 00
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Sector valuation Greek Equity Market October 00 Page 14
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