1. The Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Kamal Puri (ACCESS Group Leader)

2. OASIS UM CICE CSIRO OC UKCACABLE AusCOM (MOM4) LPJ VAR OPS BODAS OBS Assimilation (?) NWPNWP ACCESS modules based on Project Plan recommendations What we are trying to develop Consistent with the strategy of seamless prediction

3. Domains used Vertical layers The atmospheric models used at the Met Office for operational NWP and climate modelling (including Regional Climate Modelling) are all derived from the Unified Model (UM) System

4. Incremental 4D-Var

5. Atmosphere VAR OPS MetOfficeMetOffice NWP component of ACCESS has been fully implemented This represents a significant milestone ACCESS NWP implementation

6. MSLP verifications over Australian region Global Regional 22 May – 31 Dec1 Jan – 28 Feb 14 Jul – 31 Dec1 Jan – 8 Mar

7. Ver anal ACCESS-R LAPSACCESS-R LAPS 48h 72h

8. ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System, AGREPS  Ensemble prediction has become an essential component in NWP, seasonal prediction and climate/climate change studies  Deterministic systems are not sufficient; it is important to provide information on uncertainty  AGREPS is an Australian implementation of the MetOffice Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS)  Highly relevant for fire-weather prediction

9. ACCESS Deliverables Summary  A ‘seamless’ system for applications across all space and time scales ranging from mesoscale NWP to seasonal prediction to climate/climate change studies  An operational NWP system including advanced data assimilation (4DVAR) which allows assimilation of wide range of observations  An Ensemble Prediction System  A fully coupled earth system model  Regional Climate Modelling capability  A comprehensive model evaluation module(s)  A comprehensive computing infrastructure to manage the full system and allow ready use of ACCESS modules

10. ACCESS and Fire Weather

11. Modelling Requirements for Fire weather conditions  High resolution observation network  High resolution analyses (assimilation)  High resolution model including detailed parametrisations particularly for the PBL  Validation of fire-weather related fields  Rapid update of analyses/forecasts including ensembles (RUC)  Initial analysis of soil moisture (and temperature) and ground vegetation (fuel)  Relevant fire-weather diagnostics from model output - customisation  Development of methods to convert/downscale outputs from ACCESS models (NWP or coupled) to a form that can be used as input to downstream fire-weather models

12. 5AM 11PM4PM 11AM ACCESS regional 3km

13. CAWCR WS, Melbourne, 16-19 Feb 2009 – Roberto Buizza: Chaos, ensembles and weather prediction 13 R. Buizza, ECMWF Extreme heat and windy Normal conditions Wet and ColdStill Wet and Cold

14. Potential ACCESS deliverable fire alerts FIRE model run Long-term conditions A high resolution Australian region reanalysis (~25 years) with ACCESS data assimilation would be extremely useful + HYSPLIT AAQFS/CTM ……..

15. Severe weather criteria satisfied? 1. …. 2. …. 3. …. Select event Provide lat/lon Customised high resolution ACCESS run Run downstream models Generate customised products Customised high resolution ACCESS EPS run YES NO Operational ACCESS-A Schematic for a possible ‘on demand’ capability

16. Concluding comments ACCESS has considerable potential for delivering a major component of a fire-weather system However there are key challenges:  Insufficient resources to fully exploit and further develop the system  Limitations in Bureau system to receive and process large quantities from future sounders, radars ….  Serious limitations in supercomputing: –Impose restrictions on model resolutions –Inability to run adequate ensemble systems –Inability to conduct detailed testing of further development of the system