1. Welcome Scenario Planning October 2013 Atul Patel

2. Developing Strategy – Strategic Planning Cycle 1. Getting the direction right 2. Environmental analysis 3. Options and choices 4. Planning 5. Implementation 6. Evaluation

3. Scenario Planning (Futures Planning) A process of developing a view of alternative futures in order to craft a resilient strategy It is process of anticipating not predicting It is a environmental analysis tool

4. Stages of Scenario Planning 1.Get your focus question 2.Determine the driving forces 3.Isolate the critical uncertainties 4.Develop the scenario matrix 5.Create scenario narratives 6.Look for patterns and insights 7.Incorporate in strategies and plans

5. Planning Matrix Monitor More Government Less Government Strong Economy Weak Economy

6. Exercise 1. Think about the main characteristics of the future affecting the worlds of:- Health and wellbeing e.g.  Public health responsibility to councils  GP commissioning  Focus on prevention  More focus on physical activity Culture and sport e.g.  Subsidy reduction  Facility rationalisation  Externalisation  Efficiency  New business models Develop A focus Question