1. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Market Survivor! Putting Together A Successful Marketing Plan for 2014 Bryce Knorr John Otte

2. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Why Do You Need A Plan? Correlated with financial success Avoid emotional mistakes Respond to changing conditions Framework for making decisions, not a crystal ball

3. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Why Do It?

4. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING You Know It’s Important

5. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING You Want To Do It

6. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Sure, You Have A “Plan”

7. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING But Is It Really A Plan?

8. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Some Plans Are Missing Key Parts

9. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Is It Set In Stone?

10. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING 18-Month Window Is Common If you have a written marketing plan, how many months long is your window for pricing crops before and after harvest?

11. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Questions To Ponder Is average OK? How aggressive do you want to be? How much do you want to risk?

12. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Consider … Your tolerance for risk (loss of equity) Your fundamental outlook Your technical outlook Your basis outlook Your seasonal trend outlook Your tools Your sales plan

13. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING What’s Wrong With This Plan?

14. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING

17. Data Table Matrix

18. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING

19. Your Challenge 937.5 acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = 150000 expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend- adjusted RP @ 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. 100,000 bu. on-farm storage

20. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING The Rules Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 Random selection, according to historical probabilities

21. BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Make Your Plan