1. Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment April 6, 2011 Association of Bay Area Governments

2. Introduction Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

3. The Grand Boulevard Initiative is a collaboration of stakeholders united to achieve a shared vision for El Camino Real. The Grand Boulevard Initiative

4. The Grand Boulevard Vision “Walkable” Mixed-Use “Complete Streets” Land Use Intensification Enhanced Transit Service

5.  State Rte 82  43 miles, Daly City to Diridon Station in San Jose  Only major north-south arterial  Paralleled by BART and Caltrain lines  Most productive VTA and SamTrans bus service The El Camino Real Corridor Opportunity

6. Realizing the Vision  “Coalition of the willing”  Multiple investors  Federal, state and local governments  Transportation agencies (SamTrans, VTA, C/CAG, MTC)  Business and development community  19 cities in 2 counties  14 cities, SM County and 7 agencies have adopted the Grand Boulevard Guiding Principles

7. Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment Purpose of the Assignment: Making the Case for Transformation of the Corridor into the Grand Boulevard Our Analysis: 1. Estimates of Potential Growth on the Corridor 2. Profile of Transformational Projects 3. Measure the Fiscal and Other Benefits of Transformation 4. Visualize and Study the Physical Implications of Transformation

8. Findings Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

9. Corridor Growth Scenarios 2010-2035 Estimate Magnitude of Potential Change Growth Model Greenbelt Alliance “Grow Smart Bay Area” ABAG FOCUS PDAs VTA - GBI Baseline VTA - GBI Moderate VTA - GBI Enhanced Geography of StudyParcels on El Camino Real “Smart Spot” and PDAs 13 city-sponsored PDAs on El Camino Real TAZs within 1/4 and 1/3 mile buffers of corridor Methodology/ Assumptions Uses ABAG 2009 projections for region. Incorporates PDA assumptions. Allocates future regional growth on the rest of Corridor through infill of under- utilized land based on density assumptions. Uses ABAG 2009 projections for region. Focused growth in locally identified infill opportunities in existing areas near transit Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for TAZs Assumes existing land use policies and patterns in allocating densities. Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for TAZs Reallocation of growth into the Corridor, and densities increased near transit (bus and rail) to 20 – 55 DU/acre Travel demand model using ABAG 2007 projections for Counties. Reallocates growth into the Corridor, and densities increased near transit to 40-75 du/acre

10. Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected New Households and Jobs in 2035 These projections are pegged to outdated ABAG forecasts of regional growth

11. The Corridor has Capacity to Accommodate Future Growth  Land capacity > amount of land required for infill  Can be achieved at a range of densities 25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, stacked attached townhomes, tuck-under parking 70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories, flats over structured parking/ground floor retail 20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, attached townhomes, underground parking

12. Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenues

13. Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher Intensity Uses Can be Generate More Revenues

14. Infrastructure and Service Costs  Economies of scale for some departments – Public Works, Engineering, etc.  Requires further analysis needed at the municipal level  Marginal vs. average costs Smart growth can lower infrastructure costs O&M Costs Vary Source: Calthorpe Associates; Strategic Economics

15. Other Benefits of Transformation  Revitalization and value enhancement  Time and cost savings for households and employees  More stable communities  Provide a variety of housing types  Access to skilled labor force

16. 4 transformed El Camino Real settings depicted with “Grand Boulevard” streetscapes Range of types shown are in accordance with local zoning & guidelines 2-3 story townhomes at ½ acre South San Francisco location 3-4 story stacked flats at ½ acre San Mateo location 4-5 story stacked flats with some ground floor retail at assembled 1+ acre Sunnyvale location 4-8 story stacked flats in multiple parcels at Downtown Redwood City location Physical Implications

17. South SF Photo Credit: Google SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

18. San Mateo SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT Photo Credit: Google

19. Sunnyvale Photo Credit: Google SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT

20. Redwood City SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT Photo Credit: City of Redwood City

21. Policy Implications Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

22. Visual Character Must Change To Unlock Potential of the Grand Boulevard Transition from linear strip arterial to a pattern of centers and segments Development projects that capture, maintain, and add value Need to create an attractive environment for development

23. Implementation Issues Small parcels Opportunity sites are small, oddly shaped Challenging for higher density development Fragmented development patterns Opportunity sites are dispersed. Hard to create wholesale transformation. Financing infrastructure investments Upfront investments required to encourage development. Difficult to finance through traditional sources

24. Public and private stakeholders must work together to effect change Zoning for range of densities Limited ground-floor retail Reduced parking/ TDM Regulatory policies Updating and streamlining approvals Transparency and speed Re-evaluate City fees Removal of barriers Site assembly and acquisition “Public realm” improvements Targeted Investments

25. ECHO Phase II Work: Implementation  TIGER II Grant to fund implementation study  In-depth look at major issues in 4 cities:  Removing barriers  Infrastructure needs assessment  Financing strategies at local and regional level

26. Dena Belzer, President Strategic Economics dbelzer@strategiceconomics.com Questions?