1. TEM and TER Projects’ Master Plan Draft Final Report Geneva, 8 - 10 June 2005 TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

2. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 2 Structure of the presentation Background Scope Terms of reference Elaboration Conclusions / Recommendation What’s next

3. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 3 Background Survey and review of TEM and TER (1999 – 2001) Approval of the short-term strategy (June 2001) Master Plan, first priority of the work 2003 – 2004 Approval of the TOR (May 2003) Start of the elaboration of Master Plan (October 2003) Nomination of external consultants - Prof. D. Tsamboulas (NTUA) -Prof. A. Pearman (Leeds University) -Mr. Z. Trcka (Czech Rep.) - Mr. L. Gaspar (Hungary) - Mr. D. Przybyla (Poland)

4. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 4 Elaboration of a strategic plan of action for the implementation of the TEM Project objectives in terms of updated and prioritized rail and combined transport infrastructure needs of TEM member countries and their immediate neighbors Scope Investment priorities Timetable for their realization Assessment of cost and financing arrangements

5. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 5 Terms of Reference Objectives Consistent and realistic investment strategy for the development of the road transport infrastructure in the wider TEM Region, supporting: Promotion of TEM Project goals Extension of TEN-T Development of Pan-European Transport Corridors Promotion of intermodality European transport integration

6. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 6 Terms of Reference (cont’d) Tasks Review of TEM work and European initiatives Socioeconomic framework - scenarios of growth Methodology and main assumptions Inventory of needs Elaboration of Master Plan Truck and coach transport problems Funding questions and financing arrangements Border crossing questions Conclusions / recommendations / dissemination

7. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 7 TEM Master Plan invited countries

8. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 8 Elaboration Organisation PCOMain responsible National Experts Consolidate national information Invited organizationsThematic support/guidance External consultantsTechnical/ scientific assistance TEM Master Plan Expert Group PCO, National Experts, Organizations, Consultants, UNECE TEM and TER Master Plan Coordination Group PCOs, External Consultants, UNECE

9. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 9 Elaboration – Initial time table

10. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 10 Elaboration – Milestones Coordinations Group Meetings 1 st meeting, Budapest 16/9/03 2 nd meeting, Warsaw 15/12/03 3 rd meeting, Geneva 9/6/04 4 th meeting, Budapest 15/11/04 TEM Master Plan Expert Group Meetings 1 st meeting, Bratislava, February 2004 2 nd meeting, Budapest, September 2004 Completion of work, March 2005 Prepration of separate volume (to follow soon)

11. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 11 Chapter 1 TEM and TER Master Plan -Introduction of the TEM and TER Projects and their Master Plan -The TEM and TER environment -General description of the report and work

12. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 12 Two scenarios of growth have been established ( Moderate and Optimistic) The year 2000 was chosen as the base year Data from 1995-2000-2001-2002-2004 were used to establish trends Countries were divided in 3 groups - EU member countries before 01-05-2004 (Group I) - EU member countries after 01-05-2004 (Group II) - Non-EU, non-acceding countries (Group III) Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios of growth

13. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 13 Transport trends Group I: Passenger Annual growth transport by car (+ 1.32 to +1.81%) Annual growth transport bus/coach (+ 0.03 to +0.19%) Annual growth transport rail (+ 1.31 to +2.55%) Modal share road-rail the same, slight decrease for road Freight Annual growth transport road (+ 3.20 to +3.38%) Annual growth transport rail (+ 3.43 to +3.67%) Modal share road-rail the same, slight decrease for road Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios of growth (cont’d)

14. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 14 Transport trends Group II: Passenger Annual growth by car (+ 2.07 to +3.10%) Annual growth bus/coach (- 0.01 to -0.28%) Annual growth rail (+ 0.75 to +1.18%) Modal share road-rail the same, slight increase for road Freight Annual growth road (+ 2.49 to +2.77%) Annual growth rail (+ 2.57 to +2.59%) Modal share road-rail dramatic change (+43 road –60% Rail) Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios of growth (cont’d)

15. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 15 Transport trends Group III: Limited or no data existed to support forecasting Based only on limited data from Bosnia& Herzegovina, Serbia & Montenegro and FYROM Accumulated road traffic growth ( +187 to +255%) Accumulated rail traffic growth (+61 to + 81%) Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and scenarios of growth (cont’d)

16. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 16 Four Phases A.Identification ( with three screening levels) B.Forecasting (using scenarios of growth) C.Evaluation (multi criteria analysis) D.Prioritization (in three levels) Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and prioritization

17. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 17 Phase A Identification Level 1: Relevance (technical standards – TEM goals – on main axis-connecting with other regions) Level2: Readiness (project well defined – responsible agent-time plan) Level 3:Viability (10 mill € - IRR – Environmental aspects – Justified need) Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and prioritization (cont’d)

18. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 18 Phase B Forecasting Performed on macro level, using the alternative scenarios of growth, and available data as collected from countries through questionnaires (Templates) Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and prioritization (cont’d)

19. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 19 Phase C Evaluation (multi-criteria analysis) (1) Definition of criteria: -socio-economic return of investment -functionality and coherency of the network -strategic / political concerns of the network (2) Quantification of criteria: (A=5, B=4, C=3, D=2, E=1) 5 highest (3) Prioritization -Technical (direct application of evaluation providing the scores) -Compliance with commitments, and corrective actions if needed (4) Financial capability of country: (comparison to 1.5% of GDP) Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and prioritization (cont’d)

20. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 20 Priority I: projects, which may be funded and implemented rapidly, including on-going projects up to 2010. Priority II: projects requiring some additional investigations for final definition before likely financing, or planned for implementation up to 2015. Priority III: projects requiring further investigations for final definition and scheduling before possible financing, or planned for implementation up to 2020. Priority IV: projects to be implemented in the long run, including the projects where insufficient data existed. Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and prioritization (cont’d)

21. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 21 Total Final Results In total 491 TEM and TER Projects 101 billion € 172 TER (51.5 billion €), 319 TEM (49.5 billion €) TEM category I: 152 projects of value 25,3 billion € TEM category II: 93 projects of value 23,2 billion € TEM category III: 1 project of value 0,24 billion € TEM category IV: 73 projects of value 0,9 billion €) TEM 36 % have secured funding and to be completed by 2010 TEM (13 % of projects by 2015), (10 % by 2020) Chapter 4 Realization of the Master Plan (cont’d)

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23. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 23 Bottlenecks and Missing Links Analysis of what may me considered as a road bottleneck Complexity of the work not possible to be considered within set time frame and available resources for the Master Plan Missing links identified and proposed Chapter 4 Realization of the Master Plan (cont’d)

24. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 24 Major parts of the TEM Network EU TEN-T and High Level Group Pan-European Corridors, MEDA Euro-Asian Transport Links Sections on which countries proposed projects TIRS and REBIS studies Intermodal terminals/freight villages and ports Interconnection and continuity of networks Chapter 5 Master Plan Backbone Network and Links

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27. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 27 Chapter 6 Funding considerations – Technical - Institutional Aspects Since funding is not secured for 40% of projects focus -identification of possible sources of funding -eligibility criteria to receive funds -required procedures Main sources of funding include: EIB, EBRD, World Bank, EU Cohesion Fund - Structural Funds -ISPA – INTERREG Elements analyzed include: Initial approach, legal framework, eligibility criteria, appraisal, examination, monitoring, decision making, contract signature, etc. Possibility of private participation, via PPP

28. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 28 Inventory of border crossing points was made Relevant GIS maps Identification of border crossing problems Recommendations for problems alleviation Chapter 7 Border Crossing Issues

29. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 29 General conclusions Master Plan elaboration has so far achieved its intended goals by presenting an investment strategy in the wider TEM and TER region, which supports the: Extension of TEN-T, implementation of pan-European Corridors, promotion of intermodal transport, maximum effectiveness of transport infrastructure If implementation is ensured, will assist: Economic growth in countries concerned, well being of their populations, integration & harm. in Europe - beyond TEM Master Plan process has been successful, but the work is ongoing Chapter 8 Conclusions / Recommendations

30. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 30 Recommendations Missing or insufficient data should be completed with direct inputs of countries Update of the Backbone network from time to time Priority projects monitoring and implementation Close cooperation among TEM countries, between them and their immediate neighbours and TEM PCO The presentation of the shape of TEM Backbone Networks in 2010, 2015, and 2020 should be among the major tasks of TEM in future A review of the strategy by 2008 Chapter 8 Conclusions / Recommendations (cont’d)

31. UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT 31 Implementation is a long-term process that requires political will and commitment from countries Implementation of standards and monitoring the progress in bringing TEM Backbone network up to the required standards could be also among future tasks To facilitate this process, countries not yet members to TEM Project, should seriously consider their full membership TEM Project provide an ideal framework to ensure the follow-up work Chapter 9 The Way Ahead

32. TRANS-EUROPEAN NORT-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE FOR INTEGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE