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www.iapf.ie John Tuohy Acuvest Limited Alternatives A framework for making decisions about alternatives
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www.iapf.ie 1.What are alternative investments? 2.Are institutional investors allocating significant assets to alternatives? 3.What is the investment case for alternatives? 4.Where do alternatives fit in a portfolio? 5.What are some of the questions that need to be considered in evaluating a particular investment? Key questions 2
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www.iapf.ie Pension fund assets > $36 trillion ( top 16 countries ). Significant increase in allocation to alternatives ( top 7 markets). Asset allocation Source: Global Pension Asset Study – Towers Watson 2015 3
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www.iapf.ie Distribution of alternative assets All InstitutionsPension Funds Hedge Funds35%19% Private Equity29%35% Property24%35% Illiquid Credit3%2% Commodities3%1% Infrastructure5%8% Other1%- 100% * As at end 2013. Source: Global Alternatives Survey 2014 – Towers Watson 4
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www.iapf.ie Investment case 1.Diversification 2.Time varying nature of expected returns 5
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www.iapf.ie Bond yields Source: Barclays Capital’s Curve. 6
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www.iapf.ie Markets have had a good run 7 20 Year Sources: DATASTREAM, BOFA ML EUR BROAD MKT. 10+Y (E) - TOT RETURN INDEX, MSCI AC WORLD - TOT RETURN INDEX (Local Currency)
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www.iapf.ie Expected returns Investors need to take more risk, or take risk more efficiently, to achieve comparable returns Europe Traditional Portfolio Total Return Risk Free RateBetaAlpha Since 1970 10.0%=5.5%+4.5%+? Expected ? =0.3%+3.3%+? Source: Bridgewater 8
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www.iapf.ie Portfolio construction framework Strategic Asset Allocation Dynamic Asset Allocation Return Objective Increasing Return Increasing Correlation To Equities Growth Defensive Managed Growth / Risk Equity Risk Premium Illiquidity Risk Premium Long Only Smart Beta Long/Short Property Private Equity Infrastructure Illiquid Credit Credit Risk Premium Multi Asset Funds DGF / Abs Return Funds GTAA Global Macro Which Can Include: Commodities And Currencies Bonds Defensive Strategies Managed Futures Tail Risk Insurance Corporate High Yield EM Debt Highly Rated Eurozone Gov. Bonds Managing Risk 9
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www.iapf.ie Evaluating 1.Investment case 2.Price 10
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www.iapf.ie Key messages 1.Diversification is important 2.Only invest in what you understand 3.DC schemes need to find ways to access illiquid alternatives 11
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