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Published byFrederick Jonathan Warren Modified over 9 years ago
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hudson Art DeGaetano Professor and Assoc. Chair Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Director Northeast Regional Climate Center
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STEP 4: High-resolution regional climate projections Temp from global climate modelTemperature from downscaling
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Seasonal Projections Temperature Precipitation
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16% 3% 23% 31% 15% 67% 20% Regional Variation in Heavy Rain
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Extreme Event Frequency
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Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground 1970-2000
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Dates of Center-of-Volume River Flow
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Drought SHORT MEDIUM LONG
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Storms
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Sea Level Rise The IPCC model-based approach local land subsidence local relative ocean height global thermal expansion meltwater
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Sea Level Rise The rapid ice melt scenario replaces the model based meltwater term with sea level rise rates (43 +/- 4 in/century) observed during paleoclimate analogues
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Questions?
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STEP ONE: Future Emissions from Human Activities A1fi (higher) continued dependence on fossil fuels with material-intensive economy, ~970ppm by 2100 B1 (lower) shift to alternative energy sources with service & information- focused economy ~550ppm at 2100
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STEP TWO: Global Climate Modeling “Backcast” to compare historical simulations with observed climate. “Forecast” to develop future projections of changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme events, etc. 3 different climate models
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STEP 3: Global Temperature Change Likely range: 1.1 o C to 6.4 o C 2 o F to 11.5 o F
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