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Climate change impact on drought risk and uncertainty in the Willamette River basin Dept. of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR Il-Won.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate change impact on drought risk and uncertainty in the Willamette River basin Dept. of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR Il-Won."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate change impact on drought risk and uncertainty in the Willamette River basin Dept. of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR Il-Won Jung, Heejun Chang The Oregon Water Conference 2011

2 Research questions Will drought risk increase in the Willamette river basin? What drought index can give reliable results? Which region is most vulnerable to climate change impact? Will drought risk increase in the Willamette river basin? What drought index can give reliable results? Which region is most vulnerable to climate change impact?

3 Climate change in the Pacific Northwest Source: Mote and Sa lathé (2010)

4 TemperaturePrecipitation Increase Decrease Increase Decrease

5 Main drivers of Willamette’s hydrology < 1000m 1000 - 2000m > 2000m Elevation Rain dominated Snow dominated Coast range Willamette valley Western Cascade High Cascade Geology

6 Hydrologic response to climate change 1 2 3 SubPsum (-20%) T (+3 ℃ ) Combined 1 Marys River 2 Lookout Creek 3 Clear Lake

7 SPI vs. SRI Standardized Precipitation index (SPI) Standardized Runoff index (SRI) Thomas McKee at Colorado State Univ. (1993) Shukla and Wood at Univ. of Washington (2008) A statistical method for assessing Rainfall A statistical method for assessing runoff Climatological drought indexHydrological drought index Source: Shukla and Wood (2008)

8 USGS 14178000 USGS 14182500 High seasonality in precipitation and runoff High seasonality in precipitation but low seasonality in runoff High flow in summer Distinct hydrologic regimes at North Santiam River LITTLE NORTH SANTIAM RIVER NEAR MEHAMA, OR NO SANTIAM R BLW BOULDER CRK, NR DETROIT, OR

9 USGS 14178000 USGS 14182500 Western High Western High

10 SPI vs. SRI between two distinct watersheds Short-term droughtLong-term drought Western High

11 Downscaled GCM simulations by CIG Source: Mote and Sa lathé (2010)

12 Precipitation Runoff Modeling System PRMS model is physically based, semi-distributed hydrologic model Developed by USGS (Leavesley et al., 1983)

13 Frequency of extreme drought (1-month) 2 4 681012141820 16

14 Frequency of extreme drought (3-month) 2 4 681012141820 16

15 Frequency of extreme drought (6-month) 2 4 681012141820 16

16 Frequency of extreme drought (12-month) 2 4 681012141820 16

17 Frequency of extreme drought (24-month) 2 4 681012141820 16

18 3)Multi-model results show an increase in the short-term frequency of extreme drought, but long-term drought shows no change or a slight decrease pattern 2)The Willamette Valley region has relatively high drought vulnerability, but the High Cascade region has low drought risk because of a deep groundwater system that help sustain summer flowConclusions 4)To cope with possible drought risk, more efficient water resource management will be needed. (e.g., new reservoir operation rules, drought forecasting capability, transfer water system between water-rich and water-poor regions) 1)SRI is a more appropriate index than SPI for assessing the potential impact of climate change on short-term droughts in the Willamette River Basin

19 Acknowledgements: This research was supported by Institute for Sustainable Solutions (ISS) at Portland State University. We appreciate John Risley of the US Geological Survey for this countless help on the PRMS model setup and Eric Salathé at the Climate Impacts Group of University of Washington who provided downscaled climate change simulations.

20 Drought impact based on time-scales 1-month3-month6-month9-month12-month24-month Agricultural Ecosystem Water supply Socioeconomic system

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