1. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought After completing this Lesson you have learned to answer: 1.Why it is not easy to predict drought unlike other natural hazards? 2.What type of weather information scientists use to predict drought? 3.Can we predict drought at place A based on rainfall in place away from place A? If not why not? 4.What tools drought planners use to forecast drought? Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

2. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Predicting drought depends on our ability to forecast rainfall and temperature. Scientists do not know how to predict drought a month or more in advance for most parts of the world. We are in the infancy of drought forecasting. Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

3. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Scientists who watch the weather have always looked for ways to predict when and where extreme weather events will happen, and how severe they will be. Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

4. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought For some extreme events, like tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods, scientists have discovered patterns and methods that allow us to watch and even predict bad weather or hazardous conditions shortly before they happen. Drought is a different kind of extreme weather event. Unlike tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods, drought doesn't have a clear beginning or ending. Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

5. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought It is hard to tell when a drought begins and ends. But, by watching various “indicators” of drought, like water levels in streams and reservoirs, soil moisture, or the amount of rainfall an area has received, we can keep track of droughts. Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

6. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Because droughts differ from one area to another, the indicators that we measure will depend on the area we are monitoring. For these reasons, scientists have created many tools and models to help people in different parts of the world determine whether they are in a drought, and how severe it is. Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

7. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought Many of these tools use some sort of process or formula to turn a wide variety of data, such as stream flow, soil moisture, temperature, rainfall, etc. into a single number, known as an index. Such indices are used by scientists and drought planners. (For more information about the kinds of indices that scientists and drought planners use, see Drought Indices, from the NDMC's main website.) Drought Indices Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence?

8. Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought About Drought This concludes Lesson 2: Can we predict drought occurrence? And also this Module III on Monitoring Drought. If you would like to check your understanding about weather forecasting, click “Exercise” button. The next Module is about reducing risk from drought. Click “Modules” button to select Module IV Exercise Virtual Academy for the Semi Arid Tropics Course on Coping with Drought Monitoring Drought Lessons Modules