1. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 1 WG/TCR Analysis Results and Next Steps Co-Chairs Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

2. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 2 Current research aligned with operational priorities –# 1 operational priority for NHC / CPHC / JTWC: intensity change National effort focused on #1 priority –35% of research toward intensity and structure changes –Little emphasis on forecaster aids (“guidance on guidance”) and model resolution vs. ensembles Need analysis to determine appropriate research levels –Allows direct application of research investments to desired operational capability –Provides a baseline for establishing “next generation” strategic objectives (e.g., based on ROI) –Highlights importance of verification capability Need regular update of database to relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives Bottom Line—Up Front

3. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 3 Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total Man-Years: 228 Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M

4. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 4 Combined Man-Years vs Research Category

5. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 5 Combined Man-Years vs Research Category General ResearchNWPObservations

6. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 6 Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities Intensity Change Storm Surge Observations Genesis Size/Structure Stat Aids Fcst Efficiency Track Fcst Wind Analysis Model Res vs Ensembles QPF Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs SST Gradients TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35%

7. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 7 Combined Man-Years Mapped to NHC / CPHC Priorities Intensity Change Storm Surge Observations Genesis Size/Structure Stat Aids Fcst Efficiency Track Fcst Wind Analysis Model Res vs Ensembles QPF Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs SST Gradients TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities

8. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 8 Combined Man-Years vs. Detailed Research Research Gaps / Sufficiency Intensity / Structure TrackGenesisQPFSurge [Seasonal] Model Development Obs

9. OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research WG/TCR 9 First-ever comprehensive, interagency linkage of TC research to tropical forecast and warning center’s operational priorities –Developed repeatable process that can be updated on an annual basis –Allows direct application of research investments to desired operational capabilities Next steps –Agree on interagency strategic objectives (track, intensity, genesis) –Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives –Document work of WG/TCR –Formalize executive oversight Summary / Next Steps