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Financial Speculation and Commodity Prices Professor Dr. Heiner Flassbeck Director Division on Globalization and Development Strategies UNCTAD Dominican Republic, March 2011
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ESTIMATED INDEX TRADER POSITIONS AND COMMODITY PRICES, JANUARY 2006–MAY 2009 ESTIMATED INDEX TRADER POSITIONS AND COMMODITY PRICES, JANUARY 2006–MAY 2009 (Index numbers, 2006 = 100)
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Financial Investment in Commodities Strongly Increased since 2005
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Commodity index traders in agricultural products in the USA
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30-Day Rolling Correlation between Oil Price and BRL/JPY From almost no correlation until early 2000s The correlation has increased sharply while the distribution is more concentrated
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30-Day Rolling Correlation between DJ UBS Agriculture Total Return Index and USD/BRL Same story for agricultural goods The correlation has also increased while the distribution is also more concentrated
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30-Day Rolling Correlation between DJ UBS Agriculture Total Return Index and BRL/JPY Same story for agricultural goods The correlation has also increased over the last years
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EVOLUTION OF PRICES IN SELECTED MARKETS AND COUNTRIES, OCTOBER 2008–JUNE 2010 EVOLUTION OF PRICES IN SELECTED MARKETS AND COUNTRIES, OCTOBER 2008–JUNE 2010 (Index numbers, 1 OCTOBER 2010 = 100)
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DAILY MOVEMENTS OF PRICES AND RETURNS BETWEEN 11/2008 AND 11/2009 IN RELATION TO THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE BRAZILIAN REAL TO THE JAPANESE YEN
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Correlation between day-to-day price movements of currencies of selected countries (in relation to Japanese Yen) and selected equity prices indices, commodity price indices and CDS spreads, January 2008 - January 2010
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Business cycle analysis (1980)
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Business cycle analysis (1982)
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Business cycle analysis (2001)
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Business cycle analysis (2009)
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Financial announcement effects on the price of oil
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Financial announcement effects on the price of oil + cocoa
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