2. The Future of Influence Nate Elliott Research Director Forrester Research October 23, 2008

3. 3 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. As the nature of influence changes, marketers must choose which type can help them reach their goals

4. 4 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Agenda The lasting appeal of influential consumers Who are the new influentials? The changing nature of consumer influence How to leverage the power of influence

5. 5 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Marketers Have Always Used Consumer- to-Consumer Influence Source: JupiterResearch (9/08)

6. 6 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Agenda The lasting appeal of influential consumers Who are the new influentials? The changing nature of consumer influence How to leverage the power of influence

7. 7 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Definitions –New Influentials are Internet users who maintain a weblog or personal homepage; who join in discussions on Internet message boards, forums, or chat rooms; or who regularly update their social networking profile page. –Classic Influentials are Internet users who say they are the first person others come to for recommendations on music, films, TV programmes, books, consumer electronics, and technology. –Combination Influentials are Internet users who fit into both categories.

8. 8 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. New Influentials Exert Active Influence but Are Rarely Sought Out Source: JupiterResearch (9/08) ! ! ! ! ! ! ? ? ? ? ? ? New Influentials Classic Influentials Primarily exert active influence by proactively giving advice Primarily exert passive influence by responding to requests for advice

9. 9 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Young Men Are Most Likely to Exert Influence on Others Base: European online consumers Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07)

10. 10 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Influential Consumers are Well- Positioned to Advise Others on Media Base: European online consumers Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07)

11. 11 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Influentials are Also Early Adopters of New Consumer Technologies Base: European online consumers Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07)

12. 12 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Agenda The lasting appeal of influential consumers Who are the new influentials? The changing nature of consumer influence How to leverage the power of influence

13. 13 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. New Influence Will Continue to Grow As Social Computing Becomes More Popular Base: European online consumers Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07, 9/06)

14. 14 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. As Users Grow Overwhelmed by Influence, They Will Look for Greater Context Difficulty identifying relevant advice Trust of consumer advice Value Of New Influence Not enough reviews PresentFuturePast Too few centralized sources of advice Critical mass of reviews Richer, deeper advice Privacy concerns Spread of reviewer profiles Integration of social graph

15. 15 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Solicited Recommendations from Known Sources Will Carry Highest Value Solicited Recommendations Unsolicited Recommendations Personal Recommendations MEDIUM INFLUENCE Highest volume: 55% of new influentials make personal product recommendations Medium trust: Unsolicited recommendation from a known source Example: IM from friend, Facebook Beacon Broadcast Recommendations WEAK INFLUENCE Lowest volume: 12% of classic influentials make broadcast product recommendations Medium trust: Solicited recommendation from an unknown source Example: Message boards, forums STRONGEST INFLUENCE High volume: 46% of classic influentials make personal product recommendations High trust: Solicited recommendation from a known source Example: Personal request WEAK INFLUENCE Low volume: 20% of new influentials make broadcast product recommendations Lowest trust: Unsolicited recommendation from an unknown source Example: Reviews on commerce sites

16. 16 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Agenda The lasting appeal of influential consumers Who are the new influentials? The changing nature of consumer influence How to leverage the power of influence

17. 17 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Marketers Must Identify and Prioritize Different Types of Influentials Brand awareness Brand affinity Purchase intent Purchase New Influentials Classic Influentials

18. 18 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Look for Actions that Help You Understand What Type of Influence People Have Base: European social marketers Source: JupiterResearch/ClickZ Social and Mobile Marketing Executive Survey (2/08) New Influence Classic Influence

19. 19 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Marketers Must Help Users Influence Each Other in Person, Through E-mail and IM Base: European online consumers Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07)

20. 20 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Base: European online advertisers Source: JupiterResearch/ClickZ Social and Mobile Marketing Executive Survey (2/08) Base: European online users Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07) Only Advanced Social Marketers Should Focus on Building Widgets European Users Who Have Put Widgets on Their Own Pages European Marketers Who Offer Branded Widgets 21% 10%

21. 21 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Summary Marketers have always leveraged influence; new technologies have introduced new forms of influence New influentials are proactive, while classic influentials are reactive As users become overwhelmed by influence, they will look for ways to assign value to influential messages Recommendations from known sources will always carry the highest value Marketers must set their goals, then reach out to the influentials who can help them achieve those goals

22. 22 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Thank you Nate Elliott +49 (0)30 40 50 4889 nelliott@forrester.com twitter.com/nate_elliott www.forrester.com