1. January 2014 Rebecca H. Patterson Chief Investment Officer Bessemer Trust The Year Ahead: Looking for Surprises

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3. Agenda 1. What The CFA Thinks 2. Where You Might Be Surprised 3. Macro and Market Views For the Year Ahead 4. Key Takeaways 3

4. What CFA Members Think: Getting More Upbeat 4 As of October 17, 2013. Source: CFA Institute Percent of Members Expecting Global Economy to Expand in Coming Year Percent of Members Expecting a Global Financial Bubble to Burst in 2014

5. Room For At Least Three Surprises 1. Emerging-Market Growth 2. Geopolitics 3. Shift in Federal Reserve Policy 5

6. Emerging Markets: Not Enough Focus? 6 Biggest Risk to Global Capital Markets in 2014 As of October 17, 2013. Source: CFA Institute

7. U.S. Dollar and Yields: Headwinds for Emerging Markets 7 1 As of December 31, 2013. EM/DM reflects MSCI Emerging Markets Index divided by MSCI World Index, with both indices in U.S. dollars and indexed at 1 on January 4, 1995. The Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners. 2 Reflects IMF estimates for 2013. Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund Emerging Markets Outperform Developed Markets Outperform Rising Dollar Suggests Emerging-Market Underperformance 1 Current Account Balance 2 Surplus Deficit

8. 2014 Elections Create Policy Uncertainty, Especially in Emerging Markets As of November 30, 2013. European Union includes 28 member states. GDP is based on IMF estimates for 2013. Source: International Monetary Fund Country2014 ElectionGDP ($B) E.U.May 17,267 U.S.November 16,724 BrazilOctober 2,190 IndiaMay/June 1,758 IndonesiaApril/July868 TurkeyAugust822 SwedenSeptember552 BelgiumMay 507 South AfricaApril/July354 World 73,454 % of World GDP 56% 8

9. Geopolitical Risks: Could History Repeat? Source: Bloomberg 9 #twitter-hashtag

10. U.S. Economy To Positively Surprise this Year? 10 Jobs and Housing Stimulus Oil and Inflation Net Federal Fiscal Stimulus/Drag Drag As of December 31, 2013, except for Building Permits and CPI (as of November 30, 2013). Crude oil price represents Brent. Source: Commodity Research Bureau, FactSet, Federal Reserve, Strategas Research Partners, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Labor Net Federal Fiscal Stimulus/Drag Stimulus Drag Actual Estimate d

11. European, Japanese Economies Also Showing Relative Improvement As of December 31, 2013. Consumer confidence is measured on a scale of -100 to 100, where -100 indicates extreme lack of confidence about the economy, 0 indicates a neutral view, and 100 indicates extreme confidence. Bank of Japan’s balance sheet assets are indexed at 100 on December 31, 2006. Source: Bank of Japan, European Commission, FactSet, Strategas Research Partners 11 Low Risk High Risk Bank of Japan Adding LiquidityEMU Borrowing Costs Lower, Confidence Higher

12. China: Longer-term Challenges Remain but Near-term Looks Stable 12 Exports by Region: Looking Up Domestic Rebalancing Still Needed As of December 31, 2013, except for right chart, which is as of December 31, 2012. Exports shown represent a 5-month moving average. Source: Bloomberg, The World Bank

13. Cyclical Assets Helped by Global Liquidity, Not Just Fed 13 Actual as of October 31, 2013 with J.P. Morgan estimates thereafter. Source: Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan

14. As of December 31, 2013. P/E ratio represents price-to-earnings ratio for next 12 months, based on FactSet aggregated consensus estimates. Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s Bottom-Up: U.S. Equity Valuations Not at Highs 14 The S&P 500 Index +106% +101% Dec 31, 1996 Level = 741 P/E = 15.9x Dec 31, 1996 Level = 741 P/E = 15.9x Oct 9, 2002 Level = 777 P/E = 13.8x Oct 9, 2002 Level = 777 P/E = 13.8x -49% Mar 24, 2000 Level = 1527 P/E = 25.2x Mar 24, 2000 Level = 1527 P/E = 25.2x Oct 9, 2007 Level = 1565 P/E = 15.2x Oct 9, 2007 Level = 1565 P/E = 15.2x Mar 9, 2009 Level = 677 P/E = 10.2x Mar 9, 2009 Level = 677 P/E = 10.2x Dec 31, 2013 Level = 1848 P/E = 15.4x Dec 31, 2013 Level = 1848 P/E = 15.4x -57% +173%

15. Market Positioning Not Even Close to Stretched Left chart as of November 30, 2013. Right table as of December 31, 2013. Fund flows reflect cumulative net flows into mutual funds and ETFs from January 1, 2007 through November 30, 2013. Source: FactSet, Strategas Research Partners 15 Cumulative Net Fund Flows StartEnd Duration (Months) Total Percent Return 8/12/828/25/8760229% 12/04/877/16/903165% 10/11/903/24/00113417% 10/09/0210/09/0760101% 3/09/09---57203% Four Most Recent Bull Markets

16. Key Taper Transmission Channels 16 Taper Begins Higher Longer- Dated U.S. Treasury yields Stronger U.S. Dollar Pressure on Emerging Markets Pressure on Commodity Prices Low inflation Moderate EM demand Greater supplies EM debt positioning Focus on deficit countries with inflation 2014 political risk

17. Positioning Going into 2014 Asset ClassOutlook Traditional Government Bonds Credit Commodities Developed Market Equities Emerging Market Equities and Debt U.S. Dollar 17 #twitter-hashtag