1. Improving Policies, Strategies, and Programs for Preventing, Mitigating, and Transitioning out of Crisis William Lyerly, USAID Nancy Mock, Tulane University

2. Disaster Incidence by Type and Region 1990-94

3. (Conflict, Crisis, Chaos, Complex Emergency Prevention ) Conflict Crisis Chaos Complex Emergencies C4P “Cascade”

4. Relief save lives and alleviates suffering Reduce need for external assistance Development helps achieve a sustainable, broad-based improvement in people’s living conditions Relief and development are linked...

5. Epidemics Conflict Natural Disasters Mitigation Recovery/ Transition Prevention Response Categories / Causes of Crisis

6. Population Movements International Factors Underdevelopment ConflictVulnerability Epidemics Natural Hazard Complex Emergency Causes of Complex Emergencies

7. Crude Mortality Rates MonthsYears Pulse, large massacre forced migration Geographic waves, infectious disease, IDP’s Front lines of battle Rehabilitation of infrastructure Source: Steve Hansch. 1998 Illustrative Dynamics of Complex Emergencies

8. USAID's AFR/SD Strategy for Crisis Mitigation and Recovery SO10: PREVENTING MITIGATING, AND TRANSITING OUT OF CRISIS. CERTI IR 10.1 Develop and disseminate state-of-the-art knowledge on the ways that development programs can help prevent or mitigate crisis. IR 10.2 Promote country and sub- regional policies and strategies for epidemic preparedness and response. IR 10.3 Disseminate state-of-the-art knowledge on the issues that promote rapid transition from crisis to sustainable development. IR 10.4 Disseminate and promote assessment and evaluation approaches for application in crisis and transitional situations. USAID’s AFR/SD Strategy for Crisis Prevention, Mitigation and Recovery

9. Linking Complex Emergency and Response Transition Initiative Multi-disciplinary and intersectoralMulti-disciplinary and intersectoral Optimizes the assets of governmental, non-governmental, civil society and military organizationsOptimizes the assets of governmental, non-governmental, civil society and military organizations Recognizes the importance of institutional change among donor and implementing international organizationsRecognizes the importance of institutional change among donor and implementing international organizations Recognizes crisis as an integral feature of a societal dynamic and not merely a “relief” problemRecognizes crisis as an integral feature of a societal dynamic and not merely a “relief” problem Health outcome driven: Health as a benchmark as well as a key inputHealth outcome driven: Health as a benchmark as well as a key input CERTI Approach

10. CERTI Activities Linking Complex Emergency and Response Transition Initiative Develop a network of institutions/individuals for best practices identification/dissemination: Develop a network of institutions/individuals for best practices identification/dissemination: –develop technology-assisted Delphi tools for network consensus-building –conduct workshops and briefings to develop and disseminate products –catalyze African networks to engage and implement CERTI approaches Facilitate the development of : Facilitate the development of : –a regional early warning and information system –implementing organizations (including NGOs and military) as learning organizations through partnerships with academia –training strategies for African capacity-building –monitoring and evaluation methods for crisis/transition programs

11. Linking Complex Emergency and Response Transition Initiative Support applied research to address key information gaps, including:Support applied research to address key information gaps, including: –a comparative analysis of the population of African crises for the purpose of identifying early warning indicators, frameworks for response, and transition strategy success factors –operations research and methods development for the study of post-conflict transitional populations –case study research to identify best practice strategies Develop strategies and tools for dissemination of CERTI approaches and products to USAID and othersDevelop strategies and tools for dissemination of CERTI approaches and products to USAID and others CERTI Activities (continued)

12. Linking Complex Emergency and Response Transition Initiative A consensus on best practices for crisis response and transition interventions which address health security;A consensus on best practices for crisis response and transition interventions which address health security; Analytic results widely disseminated to decision-makers and operational planners;Analytic results widely disseminated to decision-makers and operational planners; A series of publications on best practices for crisis response and transition interventions;A series of publications on best practices for crisis response and transition interventions; Training modules and systems for strengthening public health interventions in crisis and transition settings;Training modules and systems for strengthening public health interventions in crisis and transition settings; An evaluation framework and appropriate indicators that measure the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of interventions during complex emergencies and transitions;An evaluation framework and appropriate indicators that measure the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of interventions during complex emergencies and transitions; A regional information system that serves as a decision-support tool for managing international response to complex emergencies and transitions.A regional information system that serves as a decision-support tool for managing international response to complex emergencies and transitions. Anticipated outputs