1. Climate Forecasting Unit The RE SILIENCE Climate Service Predicting Renewable Power over Future Monthly to Annual Timescales Melanie Davis, Climate Services Manager melanie.davis@ic3.cat Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Verónica Torralba Fernandez, Aida Pintó Biescas, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego 1

2. Climate Forecasting Unit “The development of any business requires the ability to predict market movements over which it operates.” Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad 2

3. PRESENT Weather Forecasts Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal Intra-Annual & Annual Climate Change FUTURE Inter-Annual & Decadal Climate PredictionsProjections

4. PRESENT Weather Forecasts Sub-Seasonal & Seasonal Intra-Annual & Annual Climate Change FUTURE Inter-Annual & Decadal Climate PredictionsProjections Pre-construction Knowledge for planning decisions Post-construction Knowledge for O&M decisions

5. Climate Forecasting Unit “Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract 5

6. Climate Forecasting Unit “Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract 6

7. Climate Forecasting Unit RE SILIENCE Climate Service Improve predictability of wind power generation 7 RE SILIENCE Climate Service Wind Farm Operator, Owner or Investor SERVICE: Climate predictions from 1 month to 1 year, for wind speed, wind power and temperature

8. Climate Forecasting Unit RE SILIENCE Climate Service Improve predictability of wind power generation 8 RE SILIENCE Climate Service Wind Farm Operator, Owner or Investor SERVICE: Climate predictions from 1 month to 1 year, for wind speed, wind power and temperature

9. Climate Forecasting Unit INDEX: WIND POWER ESTIMATION Use of Only Past Climate 0 Climate Prediction Capacity 1 RE SILIENCE service Target In Europe In USA / Tropics Current service 9 PROJECTIONS PREDICTIONS

10. Climate Forecasting Unit 10

11. Climate Forecasting Unit 11

12. Climate Forecasting Unit “Energy decision makers now have a new set of climate risk management tools that can strengthen their decision making, but are they ready to use them?” Melanie Davis, EMS 2014 Abstract 12

13. Climate Forecasting Unit RE SILIENCE Applications A nticipate market changes: I dentify vulnerabilities and risks Facilitate strategic climate adaptation action 13

14. Climate Forecasting Unit RE SILIENCE Benefits A nticipate market changes: Ability to make decisions earlier Avoid subjective decision making Take calculated precautionary action Potential cost saving 14

15. Climate Forecasting Unit “[Renewable] energy provision may be anticipated, not only in the short and long term as it is today, but also at intermediate horizons, where a huge market niche appears.” Ignacio Lainez Aracama, Professor of Wind Energy, EOI and Director of Energy Assessments, EDP Renewables. El País Article: 4th March 2014: Mix energético: las renovables y su predictibilidad

16. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects: CLIM-RUN, www.climrun.eu (GA n° 265192) EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291) SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378) Thank You melanie.davis@ic3.cat