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MBA Student Managed Fund Class of 2005 University of Connecticut School of Business.

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Presentation on theme: "MBA Student Managed Fund Class of 2005 University of Connecticut School of Business."— Presentation transcript:

1 MBA Student Managed Fund Class of 2005 University of Connecticut School of Business

2 Agenda Investment Strategy & Style Investment Philosophy Investment Process & Criteria MBA Fund Holdings Future Outlook

3 Investment Strategy and Style Top down approach Blend Strategy Combination of Value and growth Multi-cap Fund Primary Investments in Large-cap Equities

4 Investment Philosophy Strive to outperform the S&P500 Selecting stocks with growth potential Closely monitoring the portfolio Rely on fundamental analysis Historical performance Future Prospects Business models Economic outlook for the industry Long-term (3-5 year) investment horizon

5 Business Model Analysis Entry Exit barriers Consumer & Supplier Power Threat of Substitutes Competitor Evaluation Market Share Analysis Industry specific Outlook Risk vs. Return Analysis Investment Approach Stock Market Universe Sector Allocation and Industry Selection Select Stocks Economic Outlook

6 Methodology Sector Allocation Constant Portfolio Performance Monitoring (Stop Loss and Appreciation Reevaluation) Tools & Techniques Fundamental Analysis Business Model Analysis Ratio Analysis Future Prospects Valuation Models P/E Model Dividend discount model Free cash flow model

7 Stock Selection Criteria We look for: Solid financials Strong management Earnings growth Attractive valuation relative to the index Higher return/risk relative to industry “If the choice is between a questionable business at a comfortable price or a comfortable business at a questionable price, we much prefer the latter.”

8 Buy & Sell Discipline Buy Criteria Steady growth rates Intrinsic value > market value Above average yields Sell Criteria Stock reaches its price objective Industry-sector weighting exceeds predetermined limits Risk/reward profile deteriorates Earnings figures lower than estimates

9 Management Style Active Management Report presentation and Voting Performance Monitoring Stop Loss Measures (15%) Appreciation Reevaluation (20%) Continuous Monitoring & Dynamic Response

10 Sector Allocation: S&P 500 Weights vs. SMF Weights

11 SMF Holdings Ticker Date of Purchase Quantity Purchase Price Price (12/02/04) Market Value (12/02/04) % Gain/Loss AET10/27/04200$89.41$117.89$23,57831.85% C10/22/04500$42.80$45.49$22,8006.92% CMCSA10/15/04375$28.77$29.89$11,2083.89% CME11/08/0450$183.77$209.99$10,49914.27% D11/23/04150$66.71$64.44$9,666-3.40% FDX11/15/04260$95.12$97.01$25,2221.99% HIG11/12/04350$62.00$65.69$22,9915.95% ING11/09/04300$26.71$28.17$8,4515.47% KO09/22/04300$40.46$40.40$12,120-0.15% MMM11/15/04200$82.64$79.98$15,996-3.22%

12 SMF Holdings Ticker Date of Purchase Quantity Purchase Price Price (12/02/04) Market Value (12/02/04) % Gain/Loss QCOM11/29/04500$41.56$43.60$21,8004.90% PFE10/27/04560$28.28$28.43$15,9200.53% VIAB10/06/04500$35.21$37.01$18,5055.10% VLO10/27/04500$44.00$42.95$21,475-2.39% WAG11/22/04400$37.93$38.89$15,5562.54%

13 SMF Holdings Initial Market Value on 9/22/04 = $414,336.95 Market Value on 12/02/04 = $443,794.30* Total % Gain/Loss = 7.11%* S&P 500 Return (9/22/04-12/02/04) = 6.89% SMF Portfolio Beta = 0.95 Portfolio Risk-Adjusted Return =6.61% S&P Risk-Adjusted Return = 6.08% Outperform by 0.53% over holding period

14 Investment Criteria QuantitativeQualitative Discounted Free Cash Flow Industry Growth Growth in EPSCompany Market Share Dividend Discount ModelCorporate Governance ROEInstitutional Ownership ROICInsider Trading ROAMarket Power Gross Margins (%) Product Differentiation Low-cost Producer Customer Relationship Economic Profit Cost of Capital Debt/Equity Ratio Beta

15 Quantitative Investment Criteria - Portfolio AETCMCSACMEHIGINGKOMMM Revenue Growth12.76%11%43.3%18%9.2%7.6%8% EPS Growth42.54%40%86.27%70%23%10.6%21.66% Expected EPS Growth30%0.415%7.14%10%43.9%17.34% Operating Margin8.26%34.8%46.82%12.10%31.18%24.8%27% P/E15.4167.2235.667.79.82021.4 Beta0.91.41.031.251.510.650.85

16 Quantitative Investment Criteria - Portfolio PFEVIABFDXWAGDCVLO Revenue Growth18%7%10%13.3%5%10%11% EPS Growth16.5%15.46%11.50%15.2%9.5%11.0%145% Expected EPS Growth13.5%16.28%11.37%15.5%7.5%8.5%25% Operating Margin45.71%23.5%13.20%5.7%23.33%-4.93% P/E22.619.928.030.1%13.4411.29.03 Beta0.381.450.870.800.851.450.90

17 The Falling Dollar! Helps our Current Equity Holdings – 3M, Citigroup, Pfizer, Coca Cola, and others. Increased Revenue and better capability of competing against foreign companies in the US. Increased Global Demand for Energy Sector products such as Coal.

18 Higher Oil Prices Higher Oil Prices could cool sectors such as Transportation. Increased Cost of Transportation will affect Brick and Mortar Companies. Industrial Operating Profits may take a hit next year.

19 Inflation? Gold Prices at an all time high since 1988 – Usually a hedge against Inflation. The Market as a whole could react badly to an inflation scare.

20 Sector Re-Evaluation Possible Downgrades Transportation Biotech and Pharmaceuticals Possible Upgrades Energy Financial Retail

21 Scheduled Work for 2005 Re-evaluation of Current Sector Allocations. Complete Portfolio Management. Re-evaluation of Amount Invested in Current Holdings. Strong Equity Picks based on Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis. Outperform the S&P 500 Index.

22 Questions ?


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