1. first investment group March 26, 2009 2009 Economic Update Steve Frantz Senior Managing Director Chief Investment Officer

2. 2 Post WWII Recessions Typically Last 10 Months Average back to 1945 = 10 months 2009 = 15 months Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Merrill Lynch

3. 3 Recessions Last 18 Months On Average Back to 1855 Average back to 1855 = 18 months Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Merrill Lynch

4. 4 Stock Market Bottoms 60-70% Of The Way Through A Recession *Average of 1969-70, 1973-75, 1981-82, 1990-91, and 2001 recessions Shaded area represents recession period Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Merrill Lynch S&P 500 indexed to 100 at start of recession* 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 -52 -39 -26 -13 0 13 26 39 52 Start of recession End of recession

5. 5 Why So Severe? Source: BEA, JPMorgan Asset Management

6. 6 What Has Been The Primary Driver? Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, EcoWin, JPMorgan Asset Management Source: (top chart) Census Bureau, FactSet, EcoWin, JPMorgan Asset Management Source: (bottom chart) Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Board, BEA, JPMorgan Asset Management

7. 7 Tightest Mortgage Standards On Record *In the latest survey, the residential mortgages lending standard was separated into 3 questions: prime (which came in at 74.0%), nontraditional (at 84.4%), and subprime (at 85.7%). Total is weighted sum of lending policy and demand responses for Prime, Nontraditional and Subprime loans, combined according to the share of banks reporting each characteristic. Source: Mortgage Bankers Associations, Merrill Lynch Fed Sr Loan Officer Survey: Bank tightening standards for mortgages to individuals (percent) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Tighter Tighter lending standards Tightest lending standards on record! Easier Easiest lending standards

8. 8 Omaha Housing Market 200820072006200520042003 Avg. List Price Residential Closed $172,147$176,412$178,324$180,570$166,738$164,251 Avg. Sales Price Residential Closed $166,822$172,251$178,578$177,526$165,929$163,235 Avg. Market Time Residential Closed 7168705452 Avg. Sales Closed as % of Avg. List Price 97%98%100%98%100%99% Total Volume$1.59B$1.93B$1.79B$1.95B$1.74B$1.60B Source: Omaha Board of Realtors, MLS Data

9. 9 US Debt-To-Income Ration Rose As Much In The Past 7 Years As It Did In The Previous 39 Years Source: Mortgage Bankers Associations, Merrill Lynch Household Debt-to-Income Ratio (percent) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 08 1962 = 63% 2001 = 101% Peak = 139%

10. 10 National Debt as a Percent of GDP Source: zFacts.com 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The National Debt as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product (Data from whitehouse.gov) 2008 OMB Budget Prediction Truman Ike Kennedy LBJ Nixon Ford Bush Reagan Clinton W. Bush zFacts.com

11. 11 2009 Forecast  1Q GDP Worst for Economy  Modestly Positive GDP by 4Q  Unemployment Peaks 3Q above 8%  Equities – End Year Higher  Treasuries – End Year Lower  Oil Prices Higher by End of Year  Housing Market Bottoms – 2Q/3Q 2009 First Investment Group investment products are: *Not FDIC insured *May go down in value *Not financial institution guaranteed *Not a deposit *Not insured by any federal government agency.

12. first investment group March 26, 2009 2009 Economic Update Steve Frantz Senior Managing Director Chief Investment Officer