1. From Grid Data to Patterns and Structures Padhraic Smyth Information and Computer Science University of California, Irvine July 2000

2. Monday’s talk: An introduction to data mining General concepts Focus on current practice of data mining: main message is be aware of the “hype factor” Today’s talk: Modeling structure and patterns

3. Further Reading on Data Mining Review Paper: –www.ics.uci.edu/~datalab –P. Smyth, “Data mining: data analysis on a grand scale?”, preprint of review paper to appear in Statistical Methods in Medical Research Text (forthcoming) –Principles of Data Mining D. J Hand, H. Mannila, P. Smyth MIT Press, late 2000

4. Nonlinear Regression Pattern Finding Computer Vision, Signal Recognition Flexible Classification Models Scalable Algorithms Graphical Models Hidden Variable Models “Hot Topics” Hidden Markov Models Belief Networks Support Vector Machines Mixture/ Factor Models Classification Trees Association Rules Deformable Templates Model Combining Wavelets

5. Theme: From Grid Points to Patterns A Mismatch –earth science is concerned with structures and objects and their dynamic behavior global: EOF patterns, trends, anomalies local: storms, eddies, currents, etc –but much of earth science modeling is at the grid level models are typically defined at the lowest level of the “object hierarchy”

6. Theme: From Grid Points to Patterns Models are often down here Structure of Scientific Interest e.g., local: storm, eddy, etc global: EOF, trend, etc

7. Examples of Grid Models Analysis: Markov Random Fields (e.g., Besag, Geman and Geman) –p(x1|neighbors of x1,all other pixels) = p(x1|neighbors of x1) – p(x1,….xN) = product of clique functions –Problem only models “low-level” pixel constraints no systematic way to include information about shape Simulation: GCM models –grid model for 4d, first-principles equations –produces vast amounts of data –no systematic way to extract structure from GCM output

8. The Impact of Massive Data Sets Traditional Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis –visualization, EDA: look at the maps, spot synoptic patterns But with Massive Data Sets……. –e.g., GCM: multivariate fields, high resolution, many years –impossible to manually visualize Proposal –pattern analysis and modeling can play an important role in data abstraction –many new ideas and techniques for pattern modeling are now available

9. Data Abstraction Methods Simple Aggregation Basis Functions/Dimension Reduction –EOFs/PCA, Wavelets, Kernels Latent Variable Models –mixture models –hidden variable models Local Spatial and/or Temporal Patterns –e.g., trajectories, eddies, El Nino, etc Less widely-used Relatively widely-used

10. A Modeling Language: Graphical Models p(A,B,C,D) =  p(x|parents(x)) = p(D|C)p(C|A)p(B|A)p(A) joint distribution = product of local factors A B C D

11. Two Advantages of Graphical Models Communication –clarifies independence relations in the multivariate model Computation (Inference) –posterior probabilities can be calculated efficiently tree structure: linear in number of variables graph with loops: depends on clique structure –Exists completely general algorithms for inference e.g., see Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter, JRSS, 1988 for more recent work see Learning in Graphical Models, M. I. Jordan (ed), MIT Press, 1999

12. The Hidden Markov Model X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 XTXT Y1Y1 Y2Y2 Y3Y3 YTYT Time Observed Hidden

13. The Hidden Markov Model X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 XTXT Y1Y1 Y2Y2 Y3Y3 YTYT Time Observed Hidden P(X,Y) =  p(x t | x t-1 ) p(y t | x t ) Markov ChainConditional Density

14. The Hidden Markov Model Standard Model –Discrete X, m values: Multivariate Y Inference and Estimation –Estimation: Baum-Welch algorithm (uses EM) –Inference: scales as O(m 2 T), linear in length of chain same as graphical models (Smyth, Heckerman, Jordan, 1997) What it is useful for: –“compresses” high dimensional Y dependence into lower- dimensional X –model dependence at X level rather than at Y level –learned states can be viewed as dynamic clusters –widely used in speech recognition

15. Kalman Filter Models, etc X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 XTXT Y1Y1 Y2Y2 Y3Y3 YTYT Time Observed Hidden If the X’s are real-valued, Gaussian => Kalman filter model If p(Y|X) is tree-structured => spatio-temporal tree structure

16. Application: Coupling Precipitation and Atmospheric Models Problem –separate models for precipitation and atmosphere over time –how to couple both together into a single model? “downscaling” Hidden Markov approach – Hughes, Guttorp, Charles (Applied Statistics, 1999) –coupled data recorded on different time and space scales –dependence is “compressed” into hidden Markov state dependence –Nonhomogenous in time: atmospheric measurements modulate Markov transitions

17. X1X1 X2X2 X3X3 XTXT A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 ATAT P1P1 P2P2 P3P3 PTPT Precipitation Atmospheric Measurements Hidden Weather States

18. Precipitation Measurements Spatially irregular Daily totals (binarized)

19. Atmospheric Measurements Interpolated to regular grid SLP, temp, GH Twice/day

20. Joint Data

21. “Weather-state” model “Weather states” –small discrete set of distinct weather states –assumed to be Markov over time –unobserved => hidden Markov model –Represent atmosphere by locally derived variables Spatial precipitation –relatively simple autologistic model –only dependent on weather state Algorithm “discovered” 6 physically plausible weather states –validated out of sample Example of automated structure discovery ?

22. Finite Mixture Models Y C Hidden Observed P(Y) =  p(Y|c) p(c) Component Densities Class Probabilities

23. Finite Mixture Models Estimation –Direct application of EM Uses –density estimation, approximate p(Y) as linear combination of simple components –model-based clustering interpret component models as clusters probabilistic membership of data points, overlap can use Bayesian methods, cross-validation to find K

24. Application: Clustering of Geopotential Height EOF1 EOF2

25. Application: Clustering of Geopotential Height EOF1 EOF2 3 Gaussian solution consistently chosen bv cross-validation Clusters agree with analysis of Cheng and Wallace (1995) Smyth, Ide, Ghil, JAS 1999

26. Conditional Independence Mixture Models Y2Y2 C Y1Y1 YdYd Component Densities Class Probabilities P(Y) =  p(Y|c) p© =  (  p(Y i |c) ) p(c) Note: Y’s are marginally dependent: model dependence via C

27. Mixtures of PCA bases

28. Formulate a probabilistic model for PCA Learn mixture of PCAs using EM (Tipping and Bishop, 1999)

29. Multiple Cause/Factor Models Y2Y2 C Y1Y1 YdYd p(Y) =  p(Y|c,d) p(c) =  (  p(Y i |c,d) ) p(c)p(d) D Intuition: Y’s are a result of multiple (hidden) factors See Dunmur and Titterington (1999)

30. Summary so far on Mixture Models Mixture Model/Latent Variable models –key idea is that hidden state is an abstraction/categorization –probabilistic modeling allows a systematic approach many models can be expressed in graphical form parameters can be learned via EM model structure can be automatically chosen –many exotic variations of these models being proposed in machine learning/neural network learning –learning of hidden variables discovery of structure

31. Clustering Objects from Sequential Observations Say we want to cluster eddies as a function of time-evolution of –shape –intensity –position –velocity, etc Two problems here: –1. “extract” eddy features (shape, etc) from raw grid data –2. How can we cluster these “objects” different durations: how do we define distance?

32. Probabilistic Model-Based Approach p(Y) =  p(Y|c) p(c) Y could be a time-series, curve, sequence, etc => p(Y|c) is a density function on time-series, curves, etc => mixtures of density models for time-series, curves, etc EM generalizes nicely => general framework for clustering objects (Cadez, Gaffney, Smyth, KDD 2000)

33. Clusters of Markov Behavior B C D A B C D A B C D A Cluster 1Cluster 2 Cluster 3

35. Mixtures of Curves Regression Clustering –model each curve as a regression function f(y|x) –hypothesize a generative model probability p k of being chosen for cluster k given cluster k, a noisy version of f k (y|x) is generated –mixture model, can learn the K noisy functions using EM algorithm –(Gaffney and Smyth, KDD99) –significant improvement on k-means variable length trajectories, multi-dimensional trajectories –can use non-parametric kernel regression for component models

37. Detecting and Clustering Cyclone Trajectories Background –extra-tropical cyclone-center trajectories detected as (x,y) functions of time –North Atlantic data clustered into 3 distinct groups by Blender et al (QJRMS, 1997) –clusters have distinct physical interpretation, allow for “higher-level” analysis of data, e.g., state transitions Limitations –(x,y) trajectories treated as fixed-length vectors so that vector- based clustering can be used (k-means) –forces all trajectories to be of same length, ignores smoothness

39. Modeling an Object’s Shape Parametric Template Model for Shape of Interest –e.g., boundary template modeled as smooth parametric function

40. Deformable Templates Probabilistic Interpretation –mean shape –spatial variability about mean shape –defines a density in shape space (Dryden and Mardia, 1998)

41. Deformable Templates A probabilistic model enables many applications –object recognition: what is the probability under the model? –spatial segmentation based on both shape and intensity –matching/registration –principal component directions –estimation of shape parameters from data –evolution of shape parameters over time –clusters,mixtures of shapes –compositional hierarchies of shapes –Provides a sound statistical foundation for shape analysis applications: automated analysis of medical images –Probabilistic approach means it can be coupled to other spatial and temporal models

42. Example: Pattern-Matching in Time Series Problem: “Find similar patterns to this one in a time-series archive”

43. Example: Pattern-Matching in Time Series Problem: “Find similar patterns to this one in a time-series archive” Is this similar ?

44. Model-Based Approach: 1d Deformable Templates  Segmental hidden semi-Markov model (Ge and Smyth, KDD 2000)  Detection via “maximum likelihood parsing” S1S1 S2S2 STST - - - - Segments States

45. Pattern-Based End-Point Detection 050100150200250300350400 200 300 400 500 050100150200250300350400 200 300 400 500 TIME (SECONDS) Original Pattern Detected Pattern End-Point Detection in Semiconductor Manufacturing

46. Heterogeneity among Objects  

47. Form of Population Density  

48. Mixture Models, No Variability  This is in effect the model we used for clustering sequences, curves, etc., earlier

49. Potential Application: Storm Tracking Observed Data (past storms) Parameters for Individual Storms Population Density in Parameter Space New Data

50. Software Tools for Model Building There is a bewildering number of possible models –concept of “data analysis strategy” –branching factor is very high –all the modeling comes to naught unless scientists can use it! Desirable to have “toolkits” that scientists can use on their own –graphical models are a start, although perhaps not ideal use graphical models as a language for model representation details of estimation (EM, Bayes, etc) are hidden from user probabilistic representation language allows “plug and play” see BUGS for a Bayesian version of this idea see Buntine et al, KDD99, for “algorithm compilers”

51. Conclusions Motivation: grid-level -> structures,patterns Patterns can be described, modeled, and analyzed statistically –latent variable models –hidden Markov models –deformable templates –hierarchical models Significant recent work in pattern recognition, neural networks, machine learning on these topics –recent emphasis on probabilistic formalisms Need more effort in transferring to science applications –systematic model-building framework/tools –education