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2003-2006 STRATEGIC PLAN Alessandro Profumo - CEO Investor Day – Bologna, 13 th June 2003
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2 2003-2006 PLAN: RENEWED BUSINESS LIFECYCLE AND ACCELERATION OF GROWTH PATH g t 0 2002 2006 03-06 plan S3 CREATES NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH PLAN DELIVERING DOUBLE DIGIT EPS GROWTH AND PREPARING PATH FOR ACCELERATED GROWTH
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3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ASSUMED CONSERVATIVE MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO CLIENT-FOCUSED ORGANISATION AS A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE PLAN BASED ON ORGANIC GROWTH CONTINUED FOCUS ON CAPITAL ALLOCATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT SUSTAINED HIGH CASH FLOW AND CAPITAL GENERATION
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4 AGENDA 2003-2006 economic scenario UCI 3 years strategic plan Risk management and capital allocation Group targets Strategic guidelines and operating targets Business model
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5 PLAN BUILT IN A CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO, LEAVING ROOM FOR UPSIDE Macroeconomic scenario affected by uncertainty, with GDP growth in US and EU still lower than its potential Expansive fiscal policy in US might crowd out private investment spending High uncertainty even in presence of some positive signals (increasing consumer confidence and improved equity markets) Conservative rise in policy rates forecasted in the next three years 2003 03-06 avg US GDP, y/y % ch 1.82.32.4 2002 EU Inflation rate, % 2.21.92.3EU ECB rates (eop) % 1.753.00 (1) 2.75Stock Mkt MSCI Europe 2.04.8-31.3US Fed Funds rates (eop), % 1.253.25 (1) 1.25EU GDP, y/y % ch 0.81.60.8 (1) December 2006 Source: UCI Network forecasts Italy GDP, y/y % ch 0.61.50.4
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6 ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPROVE PROFITABILITY ONLY FROM 2004 Profitability forecast for the banking system still negative for this year with the operating profit down 6.2% y/y (expected decrease in net interest income partially offset by slight increase in non- interest income) Profitability of the Italian banking system expected to recover only from 2004 Profitability will benefit from the contribution of both net interest income and net non interest income, which will be sustained by the recovery of the equity and AuM markets Households’ financial assets expected to grow in the period by around 7% per year, in line with US and Euro countries Pension system reform could fuel pension funds growth in Italy in the next three years Deposits 4.23.0 2003 Cagr 02-06 Loans6.66.9 Sh. term spread (eop) %4.094.38 (1) Revenues-0.24.8 Costs3.23.1 Operating profit-6.27.7 Mutual Funds stock4.66.8 6.0 2002 5.9 4.35 -0.4 4.9 -8.7 -9.5 P&L Account (2) y/y % ch y/y % ch (2) Excluding dividends from shares and bank shareholdings Source: UCI Network forecasts (1) December 2006
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7 EU ACCESSION IS GETTING CLOSER FOR MOST OF OUR NEW EUROPE COUNTRIES IN A CONTEXT OF DECLINING RISKS AND GROWING STABILISATION EU entry Inflation 2002 eop Moody’s Rating Upgrade April 02-April 03 Countries with UCI presence 2007*2.3Baa3/stable HR Not defined 29.7 B1/negative - TK EU accession on track for most of the countries (i.e. results of referendum in Poland) with positive impact on economic environment thanks to: harmonisation of legal and institutional environment to EU standards predetermined macroeconomic convergence path (higher GDP growth) with decreasing risks in the medium term, with EMU convergence, lower inflation and interest rates with currency stability and public deficit control May 20040.8 A2/stable ++ PL May 20040.6 A1/stable +++ CZ 200717.9 B1/stable + RO May 20043.4 A3/stable +++ SK 20073.8 B1/positive + BG *estimated
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8 COMBINED NEW EUROPE GDP GROWTH ANTICIPATED TO OUTPACE EU GROWTH Turkey: growth expected to consolidate at rate around 5% in 2004-05, still in a highly uncertain environment, with risks of reversal. Commitment to reforms is the most important variable to watch Slovakia: sustained growth driven by investment (2004) and external demand (2004-05), with continued gradual downwards trend in interest rates and strengthening SKK Romania: sustained growth propelled by consumption and investment. Stabilising macro environment, with one digit inflation expected in 2004 and both fiscal and external control achieved Poland: gradually back to its long term growth potential, thanks to recovery of both international demand and investments. EMU convergence often seen as major target, leading to int. rate contraction and need to fiscal control Czech Rep.: gradual growth acceleration led by continued solid household consumption and recovery in export and investment activities Croatia: stable economic environment sustained growth track, spurred by investment, consumption and export Bulgaria: economic growth to speed up, sustained by the catching up process. Financial and macro stability persist, supported by effective currency board *UCI forecast 03F GDP growth* avg. 03-06 GDP growth* avg 00- 02 GDP growth Countries with UCI’s presence BG 4.34.94.67 HR 3.64.13.97 CZ 2.93.52.80 PL 2.13.72.10 RO 4.94.74.00 SK 4.04.33.36 TK 4.04.82.57
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9 AGENDA 2003-2006 economic scenario UCI 3 years strategic plan Risk management and capital allocation Business model Group targets Strategic guidelines and operating targets
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10 UCI ORGANISATIONAL MODEL: CUSTOMER DRIVEN DIVISIONALISATION... (1) Consumer Finance (2) Retail mortgages (3) M/l term corporate financing (4) Leasing Pekao New Europe division Private & AM division Pioneer Xelion Corporate division UBM BMC (3) Locat (4) Clarima (1) TradingLab Retail division Zagrebacka KFS Bulbank UniBanka UC Romania Zivnostenska 45.4%26.2%10.3% 18.1% Weight on 2002 Group revenues pre Corporate Centre and elisions Employees (5) (Dec 2002) o/w Italy o/w New Europe (5) 70,992 39,986 31,006 Branches (5) (Dec 2002) o/w Italy o/w New Europe (5) 4,607 3,275 1,332 (5) KFS at 100% UniCredit Banca per la casa (2)
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11... 3 NEW SEGMENT BANKS WITH CLEARLY DEFINED MISSIONS... THE RETAIL BANK: TO BE THE LARGEST LOCAL ITALIAN BANK, COMMITTED TO HELP HOUSEHOLDS AND SMALL BUSINESSES “MAKE THEIR LIFE PROJECTS REAL” THE PRIVATE BANK: THE LEADING ITALIAN WEALTH MANAGEMENT PROVIDER FOCUSED ON PRESERVING AND INCREASING THE WEALTH OF PRIVATE CLIENTS THROUGH A HOLISTIC APPROACH, SUPERIOR SERVICE AND INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS THE CORPORATE BANK: TO SET THE STANDARD FOR A NEW BANKING- SMEs RELATIONSHIP THROUGH EXCELLENCE IN DESIGN & DELIVERY OF PRODUCTS & SERVICES AND CUSTOMER SELECTION, BEING RECOGNISED AS THE KEY PARTNER IN MANAGING CLIENTS RISKS
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12... DETAILED UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGEMENT OF THE DIFFERENT MARKETS AND DEEPER KNOWLEDGE OF THE CUSTOMER BASE... Deeper knowledge of customers, with analysis of behaviour, needs, age, types, turnover, etc. Unified strategic decision making at segment level Increased time to market on 100% of the customer base Integrated risk management process in all segments Detailed understanding of competitive environment Specialised training programs for employees Production closer to customer needs
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13 Existing customers New customers EfficiencyRisk mgmt Intra-group synergies Pioneer UBI UCB UPB UBM UBI Pioneer UBM TradingLab Revenue growth... TAILORED STRATEGIES FOR DIFFERENT CUSTOMER SEGMENTS AND GEOGRAPHIES... High importance Low importance Corporate businessPrivate Banking businessNew Europe Retail business
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14... AND CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE PARENT COMPANY New Europe division Private & AM division Corporate division Retail division ROLE OF THE PARENT COMPANY Defining the strategic guidelines for the Group and for all Group companies Managing the strategic portfolio of businesses and Group key resources Optimising capital allocation to the different business units Enforcing integrated risk management and development of internal models to be extended to other Group entities Leveraging economies of scale through centralised functions (i.e. treasury, cost management, purchases) and specialised companies (USI, UPA)
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15 AGENDA 2003-2006 economic scenario UCI 3 years strategic plan Risk management and capital allocation Business model Group targets Strategic guidelines and operating targets
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16 UCI STRATEGIC BUSINESS PORTFOLIO: CONFIRMED FOCUS ON ACTIVITIES WITH HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL AND GROUP TRACK RECORD OF VALUE CREATION = Euro 200 mln 2006 revenues Corporate New Europe Asset Gathering Asset Management Private Banking Consumer Finance UBM Retail Natural ownerNon-natural owner Value creation potential Relative capacity to extract value High potential Low potential Can add value Cannot add value Plan focused on organic growth, with different paths for each specific business ITALIAN BANKING: consolidate UCI leadership and exploit the competitive advantage arising from specialisation Retail: organic growth of market shares in the most attractive geographical markets Corporate: improve customer penetration leveraging on innovative products and services Private Banking: organic growth through customer attraction and improved penetration of existing customers ASSET MANAGEMENT: further strengthening asset management core capability focussing on innovation, ALM and performance NEW EUROPE BANKING: maintain the leadership in New Europe for risk-adjusted profitability, exploiting the growth potential arising from EU convergence = Euro 200 mln 2002 revenues UCI CAGR 02-06 11.4% UCI CAGR 02-06 6.8%
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17 PLAN’S GROWTH RATES AND EFFICIENCY INDICATORS OUTPERFORMING THE SYSTEM REVENUE GROWTH Euro mln 2002 2006 GROUP 10,2848.6 GROUP 54.650 Retail Division 4,7288.0 Retail Division 63.656 Corporate Division 2,7349.9 Corporate Division 32.629 Private & AM Division 1,07210.2 Private & AM Division 61.158 New Europe Division 1,8308.8 New Europe Division 51.645 COST/INCOME, % UCI Italian divisions excl. Pioneer 7,9998.9 UCI Italian divisions excl. Pioneer 52.746 Italian system n.m.4.8 Italian system 64.260 CAGR 02-06
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18 AGENDA 2003-2006 economic scenario UCI 3 years strategic plan Risk management and capital allocation Business model Group targets Strategic guidelines and operating targets
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19 GROWTH COUPLED WITH RIGOROUS RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES... BASEL II COMPLIANCE GENERATING NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE GROUP BIS II is a great opportunity for UCI: achieving a full compliance will represent the fulfilment of the ongoing development process aimed at further improving our Risk Management tools; this will result in: An effective control of the whole Group real risk profile (integrated control of all the categories of risks) A more efficient and dynamic capital management aimed at value creation Beside the three BIS II macro-categories of risks, UCI has identified a fourth one: Business risks; UCI is dealing with all of them through the internal development of evaluation models currently under implementation across each Group company Credit risks Market risks Operational risks UCI aims at adopting the advanced evaluation models required by BIS II regulations for Credit (IRB advanced) and Operational risks (AMA) BIS II Risk Categories … + … the fourth we have identified Business risks
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20 A POWERFUL CREDIT RISK MEASUREMENT METHODOLOGY IS ALREADY IN PLACE... Internal RATING SYSTEM 1 differentiated by business segment and – if necessary - by geographic area and type of product already available and in use in the origination and monitoring processes in Italy; high levels of BIS II compliance VaR: Portfolio model calculating VaR for credit risk and determining economic capital absorption both at portfolio and at single borrower level already in place. EL (Expected Loss) and UL (Unexpected Loss) measures used to determine EVA and RARORAC Dedicated Credit Risk Management units within the parent company and each separate legal entity, responsible for the development and the implementation of credit risk tools, as well as for monitoring and reporting the overall risk within each portfolio CREDIT RISKS: THE CURRENT SITUATION … 1 Based on estimated PDs (Propabilities of Default) Business Segment Registry data Qualitative/ Industry data Behavioural monitoring By Product LARGE CORPORATEXXX MID CORP. & SMEsXXXXXX SMALL BUSINESSXX XXXX RETAILXXXXX BANKS GOVERNEMENTS 2 DifferentiationAnalysis components Financial data By Country X XXX XXX XXXXX 2 Including “Government Entities and Public Institutions” LEGENDA: XXX= Very important XX= Fairly important X= Useful, but not very important UCI’s RATING SYSTEM … … AND PROBABILITY OF DEFAULT ASSOCIATED TO INTERNAL RATING CLASSES 3 Calculated on aggregated loans (including loans to customers and banks) granted by the Parent Company, the 3 Segment Banks and UBM; New Europe Banks not included UCI avg. PD: 1.61% UCI median PD: 0.77%
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21 … AND THE NEXT STEPS … Focus on procedures/processes, IT systems and organisational sides: Full implementation of credit risk tools (RATING, VAR) within processes: loan origination, renewal, and pricing, provisioning policies, bad loan recovery, reporting, budgeting Upgrading of IT systems up to full BIS compliance in terms of quality and level of provided details EAD (Exposure at Default) and LGD (Loss Given Default) available within each Group company with an high level of detail (i.e.: cross-breakdowns by sector, geography, type of product, ecc.)... AND WILL BE ENHANCED THANKS TO IMPLEMENTATION OF CLEAR PROCEDURES/ PROCESSES AND MORE PERVASIVE CREDIT RISK CULTURE … AIMED AT: Creating a more pervasive credit risk culture across the Group, consequently increasing value creation Being eligible to use the Advanced Approach by 2007 Decreasing cost of risk in New Europe 1 2002 data are obtained deducting from stated figure extraordinary provisions 20022006 Aggr. 3 Italian banks 1 51 bp54 bp New Europe Division 1 189 bp158 bp Group total 90 bp69 bp Net Provisions / Net customer loans Improve the risk/reward profile in Italy
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22 Full implementation of the model across the whole Group with extension to the “Banking” books Validation of the model by Central Banks for all the Group companies Full implementation by year end 2006 of an Operational Risk Management system in line with BIS II advanced models Extension of the model to all net non- interest income components of all Group companies Development of a risk integration model based on a bottom-up approach 3 Evaluation of correlations among the different risk categories in order to exploit the potential benefits of diversification ALL OTHER RISK CURRENTLY STRICTLY MONITORED; COMMITMENT TO FURTHER DEVELOP RISK MANAGEMENT TOOLS AND ACHIEVE FULL INTEGRATION OF THE DIFFERENT RISKS Internal advanced model 1 for the evaluation of Market Risks arising from the “Trading book” under implementation across the whole Group Ongoing validation process by Bank of Italy for UBM (to be completed by the end of 2003) MARKET RISKS: Operational Risk Management team set up at a Group level Ongoing development of an Operational Risk Management framework in line with BIS II advanced models (AMA) OPERATIONAL RISKS: OTHER RISKS: CURRENT SITUATION …… AND NEXT STEPS 1 Model developed by UBM Risk Management Department BUSINESS RISKS: Earning at Risk approach to analyse the volatility of some components (typically Net Commissions) of net non-interest income of some Group companies (i.e. Asset Gatherers) 2 Based, if available, on measurements of economic capital; otherwise based on estimates arising from benchmarking INTEGRATION OF RISKS Ongoing creation of a risk integration model based on a top-down 2 approach 3 Integration of the different risk measurement arising from the specific risk dedicated advanced models
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23 DIVERSIFICATION OF BUSINESS PORTFOLIO GUARANTEES STRONG GROWTH, LOW EARNINGS VOLATILITY AND ECONOMIC CAPITAL SAVING The market already implies for UCI a benefit coming from the diversification of the business portfolio, visible in: A lower Beta 1,1 vs. 1,5 (competitors’ average) A lower implied volatility30% vs. 39% (competitors’ average) A lower cost of equity9,08% vs. 11,10% (competitors’ average) Preliminary results of the internal model for integration of risks 1 foresee Economic Capital saving in a range from 4,1% to 7,2% 1 Based on the analysis of correlation between Economic Capital needed for credit and market risks taking into account 80% of the Group total consolidated assets
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24 AVERAGE PAY-OUT RATIO AROUND 65% TO STABILISE CORE TIER 1 RATIO AT 2002 LEVEL CAPITAL ALLOCATION STRICTLY LINKED TO GROWTH TARGETS AND RISKS OF EACH DIVISION ECONOMIC CAPITAL SAVING THANKS TO BIS II STARTING FROM 2007 CAGR: 11.3% 2002 Core Tier 1 ratio: 7.2% Private & AM New Europe Corporate Centre Retail Corporate 14,100 mln (1) 9,207 mln 31.0% 30.6% 8.6% 8.1% 6.0% 10.3% 20062002 49.8% 2.9% 45.8% 6.8% (1) Capital available for allocation. The capital allocated to New Europe banks is net of the excess capital attributable to minority shareholders, which is transferred to Corporate Centre for allocation to other initiatives
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25 AGENDA 2003-2006 economic scenario UCI 3 years strategic plan Risk management and capital allocation Business model Group targets Strategic guidelines and operating targets
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26 2002 2006 DYNAMIC CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, ALLOWING FLEXIBILITY IN EARNINGS DISTRIBUTION AND LEAVING FREEDOM TO PICK POTENTIAL MARKET OPPORTUNITIES SUSTAINED EPS GROWTH, SOUND EFFICIENCY RATIOS AND HIGH PROFITABILITY, WITH SIGNIFICANT VALUE CREATION FOR SHAREHOLDERS 2002 Revenue growth (mln) 10,2848.6 Cost/Income, % 54.650 Core Tier 1 ratio, % 7.26.8-7.2 ROE, % 17.221 UCI Italian divisions excl. Pioneer 7,9998.9 Italian system n.m.4.8 CAGR 02-06 UCI Italian divisions excl. Pioneer 52.746 Italian system 64.260 Op. Income growth (mln) 4,67011.5 EPS 0.2914.0 UCI Italian divisions excl. Pioneer 3,78312.4 Italian system n.m.7.7 RARORAC, % 6.912 Branches (1) 4,6075,241 Employees (1) 70,99270,565 (1) KFS at 100%
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27 SUMMING UP The plan is built in a conservative scenario...... but the current organisational model represents a strong advantage that UCI will leverage to reinforce its competitive positioning Growth will be pursued through organic growth and with a low volatility, thanks to our well diversified business portfolio Strong cash flow and capital generation, with significant value creation for shareholders Reduction of cost/income ratio thanks to efficiency improvements in all business divisions and new initiatives reaching break-even
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28 2003-2006 PLAN: RENEWED BUSINESS LIFECYCLE AND ACCELERATION OF GROWTH PATH g t 0 2002 2006 03-06 plan S3 CREATES NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH PLAN DELIVERING DOUBLE DIGIT EPS GROWTH AND PREPARING PATH FOR ACCELERATED GROWTH
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