1. A Role for Science & Technology Foresight in CTBT-ISS ? Exploring the next generation verification system Matthias Weber and Ron Johnston ARC systems research & Australian Centre for Innovation Vienna, 17 September 2008

2. © systems research Overview The context for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative The landscape of S&T Foresight methods Experiences with S&T Roadmapping Key issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative

3. © systems research The global context for CTBT-ISS Geopolitical shifts E.g. new entrants/exits to the “nuclear club” International agreements and regulations E.g. early detection of nuclear disasters Shifts in perception of risks E.g. greater focus on climate change and natural disasters Financial pressures E.g. budget cuts Scientific advances E.g. infrasound Technological advances E.g. IT-based communication and computation advances

4. © systems research The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight Shift from building up a verification system to operating, maintaining and upgrading it Emerging needs and opportunities Assess appropriateness of the existing system to meet its future tasks Continuous monitoring of emerging S&T opportunities Consensus-building on the introduction of novel elements Integration into the existing system Spill-over potential into other problem areas (e.g. natural disasters)

5. © systems research The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight (2) Three stakeholder communities to consider Preparatory Comission CTBT-ISS Scientific communities S&T Foresight as a process-based instrument to deal with emerging needs and opportunities in interaction with stakeholder communities

6. © systems research Forecasting – Foresight – Planning What is the difference? Forecasting supposes that there is one possible future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present trends. Involves only experts. Time horizons commonly 5-10 years. Foresight assume that there are many futures, and through the mobilisation of interested stakeholders it is feasible to develop a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future. It uses time horizons of 10- 20 years. Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future developments. Involves only policy makers and experts. Time horizons between 1-5 years.

7. © systems research Strategic Marketing and Trend Research Technology Foresight (e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring) Product Impact Assessment Technology Assessment (e.g.Offices for technology assessment) Scenarios of Future Societies (e.g. Political think tanks) Global Trends (e.g. World Bank, Worldwatch Institute) Strategic Technology Monitoring Long term perspective (Conventional market research Strategic Market Research Technology Monitoring Prospective Economic Analyses Competition Analysis Short/medium term perspective Focus on Markets and Business Environments (economic, political, societal, ecological) = non-technological driving forces Focus on Technologies Today + 10 years+ 15 years+ 5 years Innovation and Technology Analysis Landscape of Future Studies Source: F. Ruff

8. © systems research Methods & ToolsDiagnosisPrescriptionQualitativeExploratory Prognosis Quantitative Normative Predictive Environmental Scanning/Monitoring XX XX Trend Extrapolation XXX XX XX Modelling and Simulation XXX X XX Expert Panels XXX XXX Delphi Survey XXXXXXXXX Roadmapping XX XXXXX Critical/Key Technologies XXXXXXX X Scenario Building XX XXX

9. © systems research Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops? Knowledge about the present Alternative futures What if Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen? Present actions Alternative futures What to do The „best future“ Two basic approaches to Foresight Source: Keenan/PREST

10. © systems research Application of the foresight methodology Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology and innovation to wider socio- economic issues Paving the way for coordinated/coherent action Source: Keenan/PREST

11. © systems research A STRM is a process tool to help identify the key scientific and technological development that an industry/sector/company/organisation needs to succeed in the future, and the projects/steps required to make these scientific and technological developments available for implementing solutions. STRMs are developed by a group of collaborators who are knowledgeable about an industry/sector/research field and its relevant scientific and technological developments STRM can be supported by a range of information gathering (e.g. S&T Monitoring, bibliometric analysis, data mining) and intelligence tools S&T Roadmapping (STRM) as an option for CTBT-ISS?

12. © systems research Suppliers Manufacturers End Users WHOWHAT/HOWWHY Phase I Phase II Phase III Identified market demands Identified critical technologies Targeted R&D investment Reduced market and investment risk Partnerships Enhanced competitiveness Influence on government policy, programs and regulations Innovation Improved knowledge Productivity Growth Identified human resource and skills gaps Anticipated BenefitsIndustry -led Initiative Periodic iteration Facilitated by: Industry Canada Potential Facilitators: Other Departments, Research Organizations, Associations or Consultants Academia and Research Organizations FeasibilityResourcesAnalysis Actions to develop, commercialize and transfer technology Periodic evaluation, re-thinking, and cultural adoption A Canadian experience with STRM

13. © systems research Market / Customers / Competitors / Environment / Industry / Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats / Objectives / Milestones / Strategy Products / Services / Applications / Services / Capabilities / Performance / Features / Components / Families / Processes / Systems / Platforms / Opportunities / Requirements / Risks Technology / Competences / Knowledge Other resources: Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers / Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation / Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects Time (know-when) ‘purpose’ (know-why) ‘delivery’ (know-what) ‘resources’ (know-how) Past NowPlansFutureVision Market Pull Technology push Layers connect: Generic roadmap – links resources to objectives

14. © systems research 10 -3 Roadmap for Electronic Devices 10 1 10 0 10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8 Number of chip components Feature size (microns) 10 10 12 10 18 10 14 10 16 10 -2 Classical Age Historical Trend SIA Roadmap 2010 CMOS 1995 2000 2005 1970 1980 1990 4oK4oK Quantum Age 77 o K 295 o K Quantum State Switch Source: Fine, MIT

15. © systems research Nanotechnology Roadmap – lessons learned: Atomically Precise Technology (APT) Atomic precision is the guiding vision for nanotechnology. Required for Moore's law progress in 15 year time frame. Required for optimal materials and systems. Current forms have sharply restricted capabilities. Advances will enable expanding applications. APT development requires focused cross-disciplinary research to develop a body of engineering knowledge for systematic design and improvement of AP nanosystems Source: Foresight Nanotech Institute

16. © systems research Nanotechnology roadmap – lessons learned: Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM) Essential feature: programmable control of operations. Required for engineering and fabricating complex AP systems. Scanning probe devices: APM on metals, semiconductors. Biomolecular machines: APM of polymer objects. Self-assembly: large AP products from smaller ones. Near-term APM promises a growing range of applications. Advanced APM promises revolutionary applications.

17. © systems research Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative Establishing the scope and the issue/s to be addressed In need of a scenario-based approach ? Defining the time horizon Crucial balance between policy relevance and exploratory character Designing an appropriate foresight process Definition of the range of stakeholders to engage, and of the approaches to achieve it Selecting the appropriate foresight tools Drawing on the foresight „toolbox“ Ensuring adequate participation Mobilising the relevant communities is challenging!

18. © systems research Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative Appropriate guidance and facilitation Professional support is essential for success Regular updating and integration in CTBT strategy Not just a one-off exercise, but part of a wider learning process

19. © systems research