1. THE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS FROM THE ADOPTION OF BIOTECH SOYBEAN VARIETIES N. Kalaitzandonakes, J.Alston and J. Kruse Un of Missouri, UC Davis and WAEES

2. Research Objectives Measure the global economic impacts from the adoption of biotech corn, soybeans, cotton & canola over the years 1996-2009 To measure the distribution of benefits and costs between Technology suppliers Producers and consumers in the various countries farmers who adopted farmers who did not adopt consumers

3. Adoption of Biotech Crops ©

4. Global Adoption across Key Biotech Crops (in million hectares and % of total, data for 2011) Source: Klive James, ISAAA 2011, percentages based on FAO and USDA data

5. Adoption of biotech crops across main commodity producers and crops Source: various, national ministries of agriculture and ISAAA

6. Measurement of economic impact ©

7. A Commodity-Market Model with a Parallel Shift S1S1 Q1Q1 P1P1 D S0S0 Price Quantity 0 Q0Q0 P0P0 d a c b I0I0 I1I1 k Producer share of both benefits and costs =  /(  +  ) Consumer share of both benefits and costs =  /(  +  )  and  are the elasticities of demand and supply

8. (A) Home Country Production, Consumption & Trade (B) Excess Supply, Demand, & Trade (C) ROW Production, Consumption & Trade C A,0 C A,1 Q A,0 Q A,1 QT 0 QT 1 Q B,1 Q B,0 C B,0 C B,1 P0P0 P1P1 P0P0 P1P1 S A,0 S A,1 S B,0 S B,1 D A,0 ES A,0 ES A,1 ED B,0 ED B,1 Price ROW QuantityTraded QuantityHome Country Quantity a c e b dk j f g h i QT 0 QT 1 QT 0 QT 1 0 00 Figure 2: A Supply and Demand Model of Impacts of Innovation by an Exporter A Commodity-Market Model with a Parallel Shift and Global Trade

9. General structure of country-commodity models

10. Distribution of benefits – gains of adopters Market Benefits ($/ha) Area (ha) Total Crop Area 0 Adopters GM Hectares Non-Adopters Conventional Hectares Yield Gain Variable Cost Savings Non- pecuniary Benefits Gross (market) Benefits $/ha

11. Distribution of Benefits – tech supplier gains Market Benefits ($/ha) Area (ha) 0 Adopters GM Hectares Non-Adopters Conventional Hectares Adopter Net Benefits Technology Suppliers Gross (market) Benefits, $/ha GM Seed Premium, $/ha Total Crop Area

12. Distribution of Benefits –consumer gains Market Benefits ($/ha) Area (ha) 0 Adopters GM Hectares Non-Adopters Conventional Hectares Consumer Benefits Adopter Net Benefits Technology Suppliers Gross (market) Benefits, $/ha Price Impact, GM Producers, $/ha GM Seed Premium, $/ha Total Crop Area

13. Market Benefits ($/ha) Area (ha) 0 Adopters GM Hectares Non-Adopters Conventional Hectares Consumer Benefits Adopter Net Benefits Gross (market) Benefits $/ha Technology Suppliers Consumer Benefits & Costs to Non-Adopters GM Seed Premium, $/ha Price Impact, GM Producer s, $/ha Price Impact Non-GM Producers, $/ha Does not include impacts of induced price changes for other crops Distribution of benefits – consumer gains

14. Measurement of farm level impacts – key challenges ©

15. Evidence of farm level impacts from Market Research ©

16. Pricing of technology and variable farm costs for US biotech and conventional soybean production

17. Yields performance of biotech and conventional soybeans in the US

18. Q In terms of yield potential, would you say the yields on your [trait] are: Comparison Of Yield Potential Between Roundup Ready Soybeans And Non-Roundup Ready Soybean Acres -- 1999 to 2006 RR soybean yields are: Percent Very/ Somewhat 15% 24% 17% 25% 28% 25% 31% 38%

19. Q.1 In terms of yield potential, would you say the yields on your [trait] are: Q.2 How many [more/fewer] bushels per acre do you get with [trait] than non-[trait]? Yield Difference Between Roundup Ready Soybeans And Non-Roundup Ready Soybean Acres 2006 RR soybean yields are ___ compared to non-RR soybean acres. *Within an acceptable range (-20 to +20 bushels per acre) Average* Bushels Per Acre +1.5 +1.4

20. Adoption of Biotech Soybeans and US of no-till

21. Q.1 In evaluating the entire Roundup Ready soybean system, taking into account any differences in convenience, labor, peace of mind, etc., do you believe the Roundup Ready soybean system has a _____ than non-Roundup Ready soybeans? Q.2If you had to assign a dollar figure to the [added/lower] value of the Roundup Ready soybean system, [above/below] the value of non-Roundup Ready soybeans, how much would you say the [added/lower] value would be on a per-acre basis? In other words, how much [more/less], per acre, would you say the Roundup Ready soybean system is worth to you compared to other programs? Adoption of Biotech Soybeans and non-pecuniary value

22. Adoption of Biotech Soybeans and non- pecuniary value % Greater valueDollar value

23. Adoption of Biotech Soybeans and sources of non-pecuniary value

24. What farm level impacts do we account for? ©

25. Results – global economic impacts of RR soybeans ©

26. Price impacts from adoption of biotech soybeans across commodities (% change relative to baseline)

27. Producer and consumer surplus from adoption of biotech soybeans 1996-2009

29. Tech supplier gross benefits from adoption of biotech soybeans in the US

30. What did we learn? Measurement of economic benefits from adoption of biotech soybeans and other crops complicated by sparse data on farm level impacts Many impacts remain difficult to measure and may explain divergence of adoption and measured impacts found in many studies Global impacts from adoption of biotech crops are very large – close to $60 billion between 1996 and 2009 in the case of soybeans