1. Chapter 8 - Stock Valuation

2. Security Valuation  In general, the intrinsic value of an asset = the present value of the stream of expected cash flows discounted at an appropriate required rate of return.

3. Security Valuation  $10,000 in Harley-Davidson July 8, 1986, and reinvested all dividends  $1,663,000 at the end of 2001.

4. Preferred Stock A hybrid security:  It’s like common stock - no fixed maturity.  Technically, it’s part of equity capital.  It’s like debt - preferred dividends are fixed.  Missing a preferred dividend does not constitute default, but preferred dividends are cumulative.

5.  Usually sold for $25, $50, or $100 per share.  Dividends are fixed either as a dollar amount or as a percentage of par value.  Example: In 1988, Xerox issued $75 million of 8.25% preferred stock at $50 per share.  $4.125 is the fixed, annual dividend per share. Preferred Stock

6.  Firms may have multiple classes of preferreds, each with different features.  Priority: lower than debt, higher than common stock.  Cumulative feature: all past unpaid preferred stock dividends must be paid before any common stock dividends are declared. Preferred Stock Features

7.  Protective provisions are common.  Convertibility: many preferreds are convertible into common shares.  Adjustable rate preferreds have dividends tied to interest rates.  Participation: some (very few) preferreds have dividends tied to the firm’s earnings. Preferred Stock Features

8.  PIK Preferred: Pay-in-kind preferred stocks pay additional preferred shares to investors rather than cash dividends.  Retirement: Most preferreds are callable, and many include a sinking fund provision to set cash aside for the purpose of retiring preferred shares. Preferred Stock Features

9. Preferred Stock Valuation  A preferred stock can usually be valued like a perpetuity: V = D k ps

10. Example:  Xerox preferred pays an 8.25% dividend on a $50 par value.  Suppose our required rate of return on Xerox preferred is 9.5%. V ps = 4.125.095.095 = $43.42

11. Expected Rate of Return on Preferred  Just adjust the valuation model: DPoDPo k ps =

12. Example  If we know the preferred stock price is $40, and the preferred dividend is $4.125, the expected return is: DPoDPo k ps = = =.1031 4.125 40

13. The Financial Pages: Preferred Stocks 52 weeks Yld Vol Hi Lo Sym Div % PE 100s Close 27 88 25 06 GenMotor pfG 2.28 8.9 … 86 25 53  Dividend: $2.28 on $25 par value = 9.12% dividend rate.  Expected return: 2.28 / 25.53 = 8.9%.

14. Common Stock  Is a variable-income security.  Dividends may be increased or decreased, depending on earnings.  Represents equity or ownership.  Includes voting rights.  Limited liability: liability is limited to amount of owners’ investment.  Priority: lower than debt and preferred.

15. Common Stock Characteristics  Claim on Income - a stockholder has a claim on the firm’s residual income.  Claim on Assets - a stockholder has a residual claim on the firm’s assets in case of liquidation.  Preemptive Rights - stockholders may share proportionally in any new stock issues.  Voting Rights - right to vote for the firm’s board of directors.

16.  You expect XYZ stock to pay a $5.50 dividend at the end of the year. The stock price is expected to be $120 at that time.  If you require a 15% rate of return, what would you pay for the stock now? Common Stock Valuation (Single Holding Period) 0 1 ? 5.50 + 120

17. Common Stock Valuation (Single Holding Period) Solution: Vcs = (5.50/1.15) + (120/1.15) = 4.783 + 104.348 = 4.783 + 104.348 = $109.13 = $109.13

18. Common Stock Valuation (Single Holding Period) Financial Calculator solution: I = 15, n=1, FV= 125.50 solve: PV = -109.13 or: I = 15, n=1, FV= 120, PMT = 5.50 solve: PV = -109.13

19. The Financial Pages: Common Stocks 52 weeks Yld Vol Net Hi Lo Sym Div % PE 100s Hi Lo Close Chg 135 80 IBM.52.5 21 142349 99 93 94 96 -3 43 82 18 CiscoSys … 47 1189057 21 19 20 25 -1 13 82 18 CiscoSys … 47 1189057 21 19 20 25 -1 13

20. Common Stock Valuation (Multiple Holding Periods)  Constant Growth Model  Assumes common stock dividends will grow at a constant rate into the future. V cs = D 1 k cs - g

21. Constant Growth Model  Assumes common stock dividends will grow at a constant rate into the future.  D 1 = the dividend at the end of period 1.  k cs = the required return on the common stock.  g = the constant, annual dividend growth rate. V cs = D 1 k cs - g

22. Growth Rate  g = ROE * r  g: the growth rate of the company  ROE: return on equity  r: the company’s percentage of profit retained

23. Growth Rate  Example:  If return on equity for A is 16%, and if management keeps 50% of the profits for reinvestment, what is the company’s growth rate?  g = 16% * 0.5 = 8%

24. Example  XYZ stock recently paid a $5.00 dividend. The dividend is expected to grow at 10% per year indefinitely. What would we be willing to pay if our required return on XYZ stock is 15%? D 0 = $5, so D 1 = 5 (1.10) = $5.50

25. Example  XYZ stock recently paid a $5.00 dividend. The dividend is expected to grow at 10% per year indefinitely. What would we be willing to pay if our required return on XYZ stock is 15%? V cs = = = $110 D 1 5.50 k cs - g.15 -.10

26. Expected Return on Common Stock  Just adjust the valuation model V cs = D k cs - g k = ( ) + g D 1 V cs

27. Expected Return on Common Stock  Just adjust the valuation model V cs = D k cs - g k = ( ) + g D1PoD1Po

28. Example  We know a stock will pay a $3.00 dividend at time 1, has a price of $27 and an expected growth rate of 5%. k cs = ( ) + g D1PoD1Po k cs = ( ) +.05 = 16.11% 3.00 27