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Wheat Supply/Demand and Price Wheat Supply/Demand and Price Kim Anderson Agricultural Economics www.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson.

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Presentation on theme: "Wheat Supply/Demand and Price Wheat Supply/Demand and Price Kim Anderson Agricultural Economics www.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson."— Presentation transcript:

1 Wheat Supply/Demand and Price Wheat Supply/Demand and Price Kim Anderson Agricultural Economics www.agecon.okstate.edu/anderson

2 Talking Points Weather and corn dominate price factor. Adequate supplies of wheat. Remaining wheat to be harvested. Drought and winter wheat crop Wheat price potential. June 2013 KCBT and CBT wheat prices.

3 Top of the News Texas feedlots buy HRW wheat from Canada Aug 3 (Reuters) - Texas cattle feedlots purchased 45,000 tonnes of hard red winter wheat from Canada in recent days due to tight supplies of feed corn and its record-high prices, United States and Canadian trade sources said on Friday. In the past two weeks, Canadian exporters sold as many as 500 rail cars of wheat for shipment into the No. 1 U.S. cattle state of Texas, the sources said. "Right now, there's a real supply crunch and they're running out of old-crop corn," a Canadian source said. "(Canadian wheat) is available." Canadian exporters and farmers now have more freedom to market their grain after the Canadian Wheat Board's marketing monopoly expired on Wednesday, the first day of Canada's 2012/13 marketing year.

4 Oklahoma daily cash wheat price and CBT nearby corn contract price

5

6 http://www.gramene.org/species/triticum/wheat_maps_and_stats.html

7 http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/Buyers_Processors/World_maps/auswht.gif

8 http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/Buyers_Processors/World_maps/argwht.gif

9 Wheat and Corn S & D Numbers U.S. Production Million Bu. U.S. Ending Stocks Million Bu. Stocks-to-Use Ratio Percentage KCBT/CBT Dec $ $/Bu. WheatCornWheatCornWheatCornWheatCorn February 2,165 14,270 957 1,61644.012.0 $ 7.35 $ 5.58 May 2,245 14,790 735 1,88130.713.7 $ 7.23 $ 5.37 June 2,234 14,790 694 1,88129.113.7 $ 7.38 $ 5.16 July 2,224 12,970 664 1,18327.49.3 $ 9.11 $ 7.84 August 2.268 10,779 698 650 28.6 5.8 World ProductionWorld Ending StocksStocks-to-Use Ratio WheatCornWheatCornWheatCorn May 24,896 37,235 6,912 5,99727.416.5 June 24,693 37,399 6,825 6,13127.216.9 July 24,446 35,639 6,703 5,27926.814.9 August 24.354 33.424 6,560 4,855 25.9 14.3

10 http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/Buyers_Processors/World_maps/usahrw.gif

11 August, September, October Temperature

12 November, December, January Temperature

13 August, September, October Precipitation

14 November, December, January Precipitation

15 KCBT Dec ’12: Daily

16 KCBT Weekly Nearest

17 CBT Weekly Nearest

18 December 1 and June 20 prices December 1:$8.00 to $10.00 June 20, 2013:$7.50


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