1. Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta PROGRESS REPORT TWG I: Energy Policy Analysis by Rahmat A. Al Hasibi Semarang July, 13 th 2011

2. Outline Development of CASINDO Leap Model – CASINDO database structure – Survey result of Household sector – Scenarios: Baseline scenario The integration of TWG III result in energy efficiency scenario – Overview of LEAP Model Next Activity

3. CASINDO Database Structure (Household) CAREPI CASINDO

4. The Result of Household Survey adjusted to 2008 condition

5. Baseline Scenario Population and population growth – Population of Y ogyakarta Province in 2008: 3, 4 6 8,502 people – Population growth in 2005 – 2008: 1.01 % – Population growth assumption in scenario: GDP and GDP growth: – GDP of Yogyakarta Province in 2008: 19, 208, 9 3 6 – GDP growth in 2008: 5.02 % – GDP growth assumption in 2025: 6.0 % kerosene to LPG conversion: – End in 2010 Electrification ratio: – 100 % in 2020 No.Year IntervalPopulation Growth 1.2010-20150.81% 2.2015-20200.63% 3.2020-20250.44%

6. Energy Efficiency Scenario National Target in Energy Efficiency (25/25 vision) – Industrial Sector: 22 % final energy ~ 32 % primary energy – Commercial Sector: 15 % final energy ~ 22 % primary energy – Transportation Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 3 7 % primary energy – Household Sector: 25 % final energy ~ 37 % primary energy – National: 23 % final energy ~ 3 4 % primary energy Regional Energy Efficiency Potential: – Industrial Sector: 15 – 20 % – Household Sector: 10 – 25 % – Transportation Sector * : 25 % – Commercial Sector * : 25 – 30 %

7. LEAP Model (Overview)

10. Next Activity July-September 2011, to finalize: – scenarios of LEAP model – D28 report

11. THANK YOU