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1 Learning User Clicks in Web Search Ding Zhou et al. The Pennsylvania State University IJCAI 2007
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2 What is Click Prediction? microsoft xbox 360 kinect game 1. http://www.xbox.com/zh-TW/kinect 2. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/kinect 3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinect
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3 What is Click Prediction? microsoft xbox 360 kinect game 1. http://www.xbox.com/zh-TW/kinect 2. http://www.xbox.com/en-US/kinect 3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinect
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4 Click Prediction Model P(http://www.xbox.com/zh-TW/kinect | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) P(http://www.xbox.com/en-US/kinect | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) P(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinect | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game)
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5 Two approaches 1. Full Model: P F (http://www.xbox.com/zh- TW/kinect | “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ” ) 2. Independent Model: P I (http://www.xbox.com/zh-TW/kinect | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game)
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6 Two Approaches: Pros and Cons Full Model High prediction accuracy Low coverage Independent Model Low prediction accuracy High coverage
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7 New Approach: Conditional Probability Hierarchy P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) = P F (url | “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ” ) + (1- )P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game)
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8 New Approach: Conditional Probability Hierarchy P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) = P F (url | “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ” ) + (1- )P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) = P(url|microsoft)P(url|xbox)P(url|360)P(url|kinect) P(url|game)
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9 New Approach: Conditional Probability Hierarchy P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) = P F (url | “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ” ) + (1- )P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) = P(url|microsoft)P(url|xbox)P(url|360)P(url|kinect) P(url|game)
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10 New Approach: Conditional Probability Hierarchy microsoft xbox360kinect game P(url|microsoft xbox)P(url|360 kinect) P(url|360 kinect game) P(url|microsoft xbox 360 kinect game)
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11 New Approach: Conditional Probability Hierarchy P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) = P F (url | “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ” ) + (1- )P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) = f( P F (url | “ microsoft xbox ” ), (1- )P I (url | microsoft, xbox), P F (url | “ 360 kinect game ” ), (1- )P I (url | 360, kinect, game))
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12 New Approach: Conditional Probability Hierarchy P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) = P F (url | “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ” ) + (1- )P I (url | microsoft, xbox, 360, kinect, game) is directly proportional to the occurrence frequency of “ microsoft xbox 360 kinect game ”
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13 How to predict? What ’ s the threshold probability for considering P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) as a click???
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14 How to predict? What ’ s the threshold probability for considering P(url | microsoft xbox 360 kinect game) as a click??? Not said in paper …
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15 Experimental Corpus CiteSeer 1,826,817 query-click pairs
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16 Prediction Accuracy
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17 Prediction Coverage
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18 Accuracy-Coverage Tradeoff
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