1. Modeling For Environmental Decisions Patrick Barickman 3/21/2006

2. WHAT WE’LL COVER Models and policy The laws The pollutants Atmospheric chemistry A case study – a high wind event, aka a dust storm

3. Models, Facts, and the Policy Process John Leslie King and Kenneth L. Kraemer Three Important Functions 1.Clarifier of the issues Know the model’s constraints and limitations 2.Enforces a disciplined analysis Modeling protocol - Consistent results come from consistent application 3.Form of advice – not necessarily the answer Often, the best advice may be what not to do

5. The Clean Air Act Circa 1970 Clean Water Act, NEPA, Endangered Species Act Clean Air Act amended 1990 Some technical changes, some major changes (regional haze rule – visibility in natl. parks) Federal rules and health standards Enforced by states ( in some cases local agencies) Class I, II, and III areas Class I = pristine – wilderness, NP Class III = urban areas Two classes of pollutants 1.Criteria 2.Hazardous

6. Criteria Pollutants Carbon monoxide Nitrous oxides Sulfur oxides Volatile organics compounds Fine particulates Health standards change over time as Improved science provides better understanding Ability to monitor pollutants improves Particulate example 1970’s – Total Suspended Particulates 1980’s, 90’s – PM 10 Current – PM 2.5

7. OZONE: A BASIC CHEMISTRY NO 2 +SUNLIGHT+ O2O2O2O2 NO X EMISSIONSVOCEMISSIONS NOVOC OZONE SCAVENGING FORMATION From: PROF. V. J. CORTES MONICA LUPION I.I.

9. Sept. 10, 2005 - 00:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 02:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 07:00 Hrs Sept. 10, 2005 - 12:00 Hrs NEAP Technical Analysis

10. Model Development Combines 3 Models HYSPLIT wind trajectories WRAP wind blown dust model ISCST3 dispersion and deposition Multiple data sets Soils Land Cover UDAQ annual inventory Construction activity ( building permits ) All sewn together and processed with GIS Final output for each episode/monitor are sets of spreadsheets to easily track calculations for all dust categories

11. Model #1 Using the HYSPLIT model to Define the analysis area

12. 4 km grid cells: too small 12 km grid cells: still too small 36 km grid cells: Better. Selecting cells by hand creates an area of influence based on the trajectory vectors Model development: False starts along the way

13. Landuse types within the study area

14. Model #2 Adapting the WRAP wind-blown dust model

15. Model #3 ISCST3 plume dispersion

16. Near-field Analysis Accounting for dust emissions within the urban areas Sources in our ‘emissions inventory’ Vacant lots – a special case GIS analyses often make use of spatial proportions

17. Accounting for sources not accounted for in the dust model Point Area Mobile Vacant lots Inventory = tons/year Model calculating grams/second

18. Results – Lindon 4/15/2002

19. Results – Magna 2/25/2002

20. Conclusions: A technical analyst serves many masters It’s always helpful to know who they are At most, your expertise will be limited to a few models Try for a working understanding in a variety of techniques Look at the job descriptions for senior planners and you will see a lot of space devoted to analytical skills