1. 1 Dust Definition Implementation Gerard Mansell, Julia Lester, Jason Conder ENVIRON International WRAP Carbon/Dust Conference May 24, 2006

2. 2 Background: Dust Definition Visibility standard references the “natural baseline” How do you identify/quantify natural and anthropogenic dust sources/emissions? What mitigations are possible? – DEJF developed draft dust definition

3. 3 Feasibility Assessment Approach Feasibility Report – related approaches, data/methodology resource assessment, Feasibility Assessment Protocol Established 3 categories Mixed: Land impacted by native and non-native animals, dry lake shores / beds Category 1 Category 2Category 3 Emissions due to anthropogenic influence Emissions under healthy, natural conditions Pure Anthro: construction, agriculture, roadways, etc. Pure Natural: Erupting volcanoes, sea spray, etc. Total Dust Emission s

4. 4 Partitioning of Category 3 Sources Category 3 Partitioning, “Direct-Comparison” Approach - Compare Category 3 dust emissions at sites with actual or created “natural” reference sites (on site/source basis) Reference areas, reference time periods - Ecosystem health as opposed to disturbance ranges - Modeling Data information resources (Report, Appendix A) – Web location, cost, “owner,” description, spatial extent (location), user interface, user input, data format, spatial resolution, data export, user requirements, information need check-off, WRAP dust definition applicability score, and notes

5. 5 Feasibility Assessment Protocol 1. Identify the purpose and goals of the analysis 2. Conceptual Model and initial source rank order 3. Identify major Category 3 sources 4. Identify controls/mitigations, if desired 5. For major Category 3 sources, are existing methods/databases available to characterize, estimate, and/or partition the emissions? 6. If not, can the necessary methods/databases be developed and at what cost?  If the answers to 5 and/or 6 are yes, definition can be implemented

6. 6 Case Studies Several potential case studies identified 2 case studies identified through discussion with WRAP staff and the DEJF: – Saguaro West (SAWE) in Pima County Arizona CoD / CoHA: 123 dust days of soil / coarse mass major contributors to 20% worst visibility days – Salt Creek Wilderness in New Mexico CoD / CoHA DRI CoD Backward Trajectory Analysis Near Emissions Inventory Interaction with the New Mexico SIP Pilot Project

7. 7 Step 1: Purpose and Goals ItemFull-scale StudySaguaro West Case Study Salt Creek Wilderness Study Analysis areaAll contributing source areas 135  to 225  quadrant, 20-km radius 100 km radius circle Resource identification AllAs in full study Dust source identification Comprehensive, GIS, long-range sources assessed LimitedComprehensive for short- range sources, GIS spatially- resolved where available Dust source characterization Identify models / data for all significant sources Identify models / data for most significant source Identify models / data for all significant sources Ems InventoryAll significant sourcesMost significantAll significant sources Inv. partitioningAll significant Cat. 3 sources Most significant with available data All significant Cat. 3 sources

8. 8 Step 2: Conceptual Model CM Geographic, geological, topographical, ecological, climatological and land use setting PM and Visibility setting Initial source ranking Major Category 3 Sources WRAP Products/Tools: AoH, CoHA, CoD, In and Near Class 1 Areas, Near Emission Inventories State/Local Information

9. 9 Salt Creek CM Building Blocks

10. 10 Step 2 (cont): Initial Ranking of Sources Saguaro West – Most significant: Windblown from shrub land (Cat. 3) – Major: Other windblown (Cat. 3), agriculture (Cat. 1) – Unknown: Emissions and/or the natural “disturbance” due to burrowing animals Salt Creek Wilderness – Most significant: Windblown from shrub/grass lands (Cat. 3) – Major: Other windblown (Cat 3.); agriculture, construction, road dust (Cat. 1) – Other: Emissions and/or the natural “disturbance” due to burrowing animals

11. 11 Step 3: Major Category 3 Sources Saguaro West: Windblown (shrubland) Salt Creek (with current inventory) – Windblown (shrubland & grasslands) – Others: to be determined

12. 12 Step 4: Mitigations / Control Identify possible mitigations and controls that may be applied to Category 1 and specific Category 3 sources – Impact of controls/mitigations on Category 3 sources related to emission partitioning Saguaro West – Not part of case study Salt Creek Wilderness – Controls/ mitigations identified through the NM SIP Pilot Project

13. 13 Step 5: Resource Availability for Category 3 Sources For major Category 3 contributors, are resources available to characterize, estimate, and/or partition the emissions? – Data and Model Resource Identification – Dust source characterization – Site-specific dust emission estimates – Emission partitioning

14. 14 Step 5: Emission Estimates Saguaro: Rough, based on 12x12km estimates from windblown dust model Salt Creek Wilderness: Refined inventory, based on WRAP modeling data, revised spatial allocation, local data, Causes of Haze (CoH) analyses (DRI), etc.

15. 15 Step 5: Emission Estimates WRAP modeling PM10 dust emission inventory data (includes TFs); spatially allocated to 100-km analysis area; reflects spatial allocation based on 1992 NLCD

16. 16 Step 5: Emission Estimates WRAP county-level PM10 dust emission inventory data (tpy)

17. 17 Refined Emission Estimates Refine emission estimates through spatial allocation using updated LULC data Incorporate local available data Work is on-going Utilize CoH analysis from DRI

18. 18 Current LULC for spatial allocation (1992 NLCD)

19. 19 Updated LULC for spatial allocation (2000 NALC)

20. 20 Spatial allocation to 100-km analysis area

21. 21 Spatial allocation to 100-km analysis area PM10 Dust emissions allocated to 100-km analysis area using 2000 NALC-based surrogates

22. 22

23. 23 DRI Back-trajectory Analysis Consider dust emission source areas based on back-trajectories for SACR

24. 24 Step 5: Category 3 Partitioning Saguaro West: Information available to generally identify impacted areas (e.g. unpaved road and grazing areas) and to identify a “natural” reference area, but no current analysis performed Salt Creek Wilderness: – Results pending

25. 25 Dust Emissions from Burrowing Animals Excavate as much as 5,100 tons soil/mi 2 year If fully entrained, may generate as much as 6 metric tons PM10 /mi 2 year (Saguaro West) Burrowing activity affects vegetation cover at landscape scales In certain areas, there may be no additional emissions even if anthropogenic disturbances are present Botta’s pocket gopher Thomomys bottae

26. 26 CONCLUSIONS Dust definition implementation feasible – No “one-size-fits all” approach – Wide variety of information resources available – Key challenges Reconciling different emission estimates Partitioning Category 3 sources – Identifying reference areas / time periods Quantifying impact of natural disturbances – Assessment Report and draft Saguaro Study available Provides a process (and a tool – Conceptual Model) for integrating WRAP tools/projects during SIP development – NM SIP Pilot Project Feedback to emissions models