1. CREDITS TO PPIC, CPEC, GREYSTONE GROUP, LAO, COMMUNITY COLLEGE LEAGUE OF CALIFORNIA

2.  Previous PPIC research shows  Economy will demand more highly educated workers  Population will not have enough education to meet projected needs  Can gap be closed through migration of highly skilled workers from other states and countries ?

3.  Sizeable gap in projections for 2025  41% of jobs will require a B.A. / B.S.  32% of adults will have a college degree  Would require an increase in high-skilled migration of unprecedented magnitude to fill the gap

4.  The coming skills gap  Recent migration patterns  Summary and policy implications

5. Share of total employment % Manufacturing 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Services 2005 2025 (projection)

6.  Includes complex work in legal, engineering, computer services  Health and education services is fastest growing sector  43% of workers have a college degree

7. 17 22 30 31 16 19 25 41 0 10 20 30 40 No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more 2005 2025 % Share of total employment

8. Number of jobs by educational attainment 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more Millions 2005 2025

9. 32 19 21 29 31 15 23 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2025 % No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more

10. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 All groups LatinoWhiteAsianAfrican American Education Will Improve for All Groups, But Overall Gain Will Be Small 10 13 41 42 50 56 22 31 32 2005 2025 % College graduates, 25-64 years old

11. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-64 27 31 30 32 35 32 College graduates by age group, 2005 %

13. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more Millions of workers 2025 demand 2025 supply, no migration

14.  The coming skills gap  Recent migration patterns  Summary and policy implications

15. 48 38 28 30 15 21 9 11 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Domestic in-migrants Domestic out-migrants No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more % Domestic migrants, 2000-2005

16. 1.3 million 1.7 million 658,000 612,000 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 Domestic in-migrants Domestic out-migrants (000) No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more

17. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 196019701980199020002005 % Foreign born Born in California Born in another state 31 33 35

19. Foreign immigration of college graduates to California 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1965-701975-801985-901995-20002000-05 (000)

20. Educational attainment of international immigrants, 2000-2005, aged 25-64 Some college 17 40 28 15 No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma B.A./B.S. or more

21. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1985- 1990 1995- 2000 2000- 2005 2005- 2025 Migration required to meet demand (000) Average annual net migration of college graduates

22. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1985- 1990 1995- 2000 2000- 2005 2005- 2025 Migration required to meet demand Past domestic migration (000) Average annual net migration of college graduates

23. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1985- 1990 1990- 2000 2000- 2005 2005- 2025 Migration required to meet demand Past domestic migration Past international migration (000) Average annual net migration of college graduates

24.  The coming skills gap  Recent migration patterns  Summary and policy implications

25.  Domestic migration no longer provides substantial net increase in college-educated workers  International immigration has become important source of skilled workers  But annual number of college-educated immigrants would need to nearly triple to fill gap

26. The problem is that education trends in California are not projected to keep pace because population growth is concentrated among groups that have typically attained lower levels of education. Immigrants and the children of immigrants will make up a large percentage of the 2025 working-age population. Up to now, this group has been among the least likely to finish high school or to attend or finish college. CA 2025

27.  By 2010: - Hispanics, at 42% of the population, will become the majority - Industries with the greatest growth (service, transportation, and finance) require post-high school levels of education and strong language skills - Manufacturing will only have a 3.7% growth rate

28. Employment Policy Foundation

29. If we don’t have the educated workforce we need, we’re potentially in a double bind: Where will the tax revenues come from to fund the transfer programs or to keep roads repaired, water clean and flowing, and schools running? Is it likely that the growing proportion of older people will be a source of high tax revenues? It is particularly ironic that as the state seeks to cope with its budget woes, we may be limiting access to our public institutions of higher education, thereby potentially limiting the source of higher tax revenues from the working population in the future.

30.  Requires change in federal policy  Past federal reforms: few and far between  Current policy favors family reunification  Senate bill uses point system to shift toward skilled workers  May not happen, may not make a difference  Increasing competition for skilled workers  From other states  From other countries, including home countries

31.  Improving college participation and graduation will help close gap  State has important role  Preparation for bachelor’s degree in K-14  Public university systems educate majority of college graduates (76%)

32. We conclude that it is extremely unlikely that the projected need for highly skilled workers will be met mainly through the increased migration of college-educated workers. However, increases in college participation and graduation among California’s residents could help meet these future demands. Such increases will be at least partly induced by the wage growth that will occur as highly skilled labor becomes relatively scarce. Public policy in California, a state where the vast majority of college students are in public institutions, has an important role to play in accommodating and even encouraging such increases. Can CA Import Enough Workers? PPIC Public Policy Needed

33. Prop 92 Would Have Made a Major Difference Opening Doors for California’s Students “By aligning community college funding with growth in students, California’s community colleges will be able to open the doors to 114,824 students over the next three years.”

34. This budget calls for reducing community college enrollment by 2% below the governor's enrollment projection, which works out to about 52,000 headcount students. Governor’s Budget Goes the Other Way

35. WHAT YOU CAN DO?

36. If you’re outraged at conditions, then you can’t possibly be free or happy until you devote all your time to changing them and do nothing but that. But you can’t change anything if you want to hold onto a good job, a good way of life and avoid sacrifice. Cesar Chavez, United Farm Workers