1. A Robust Measure of Global Food Availability Prepared by Mark Elward June 2010

2. A Robust Measure Review of FAO food balance sheets in fall of 2009 Review of FAO food balance sheets in fall of 2009 Worked through several steps Worked through several steps Review of the fundamentalsReview of the fundamentals FAO needsFAO needs TheoryTheory Credible StatisticsCredible Statistics Methods at FAOMethods at FAO IssuesIssues PossibilitiesPossibilities Focus on one basic option (a few variations) Focus on one basic option (a few variations) Only realistic option for FAOOnly realistic option for FAO Current method is fundamentally flawed Current method is fundamentally flawed Other methods are ‘dreaming in technicolour’ Other methods are ‘dreaming in technicolour’

3. One reasonable possibility… Balance sheetBalance sheet Simple Simple Phenomenal challenge so keep it simplePhenomenal challenge so keep it simple All countriesAll countries All relevant food commodities (highest level)All relevant food commodities (highest level) Displays relevant variablesDisplays relevant variables Depends on production and trade (exist) Depends on production and trade (exist) Consistent with fundamentals (need, theory, credible stats) Consistent with fundamentals (need, theory, credible stats) Therefore defendableTherefore defendable Consistent with practices in countries with food stat programsConsistent with practices in countries with food stat programs Minimises imputations Minimises imputations Accepts data gaps (can be filled in time)Accepts data gaps (can be filled in time) FAO has or could have capacity to produce FAO has or could have capacity to produce Complements other programs such as surveys Complements other programs such as surveys One piece of food puzzle One piece of food puzzle Minimises revision ‘shock’ Minimises revision ‘shock’ Can be applied at country level Can be applied at country level

4. Fundamentals –just a reminder FAO FAO important to basic objectives of FAOimportant to basic objectives of FAO FAO is about adequate food FAO is about adequate food balance sheets measure food balance sheets measure food internal users adding valueinternal users adding value multitude of external usersmultitude of external users public good public good not a statistical organisation not a statistical organisation

5. Balance sheets -what? ä Portrait of an agricultural or food commodity over a period of time for a defined geographic level 3 link over time 3 for analysis or public use ä Stock and flow analysis 3 numerous sources of data = beginning stocks + flows in flows out flows out + ending stocks

6. Good statistical programs Relevant Relevant Reliable Reliable accurateaccurate objectiveobjective free of politics free of politics Timely Timely

7. Methods at FAO balance sheet framework balance sheet framework country country calendar year calendar year tree structure tree structure numerous processed products numerous processed products up to 4 levels of processing up to 4 levels of processing distributed using ratios distributed using ratios

8. Food Food consumption = food available for consumption Food consumption = food available for consumption residual sum ??? but kept stable through balancing factorresidual sum ??? but kept stable through balancing factor often expressed as an equivalent of level publishedoften expressed as an equivalent of level published Converted to display nutrients represented Converted to display nutrients represented calories, protein and fatcalories, protein and fat calculated at processed level and summedcalculated at processed level and summed Calories per person per day = sensitive Calories per person per day = sensitive

9. Let the fundamentals drive the program! -adopt what has been proven- keep it keep it important -is it properly funded? important -is it properly funded? public public annual annual by country by country agriculture and food agriculture and food trade data trade data supplementary data (area, yield, more) supplementary data (area, yield, more)

10. Focus and reduce work only balance sheets worked with = public only balance sheets worked with = public 96 published balance sheets 96 published balance sheets cut the vast majority of processed products cut the vast majority of processed products at working level at working level review the commodities review the commodities 67 food types account for 99% of calories 67 food types account for 99% of calories still more that are important still more that are important Only 20 to 35 for each country Only 20 to 35 for each country

11. Work with stocks stocks -display when available stocks -display when available limit imputations limit imputations accept the gapsaccept the gaps focus analysis on food available and calories focus analysis on food available and calories break the databreak the data statistical discrepancy statistical discrepancy moving averages moving averages defendable and more transparent defendable and more transparent users can perform calculationsusers can perform calculations

12. Other recommendations Timeliness Timeliness publish with one year of reference year publish with one year of reference year publish release dates and revision schedule publish release dates and revision schedule Clarify Clarify naming conventions naming conventions release on FAOSTAT release on FAOSTAT Working relationships Working relationships beg, borrow & steal beg, borrow & steal Related data Related data agriculture and food agriculture and food area and yield area and yield food aid trade food aid trade Waste-adjusted??? Waste-adjusted??? maybe –in time maybe –in time

13. Major change, minor impact Impact on data would be limited Impact on data would be limited due to consistency with current methods due to consistency with current methods changes do not have to be taken back to beginning changes do not have to be taken back to beginning Limited shock to users Limited shock to users due to similarities in coverage & presentation due to similarities in coverage & presentation small revisions small revisions Tried and tested Tried and tested EU, US, Canada EU, US, Canada = confidence = confidence = reduced risk = reduced risk = world-class = world-class

14. End result = program FAO can stand behind program driven by fundamentals program driven by fundamentals consistent with theory and practices in other countries consistent with theory and practices in other countries relevant to FAO core business relevant to FAO core business reflect good statistical practices reflect good statistical practices reliable reliable given limitations of data suppliers given limitations of data suppliers timely timely

15. Making it happen! Food is Key… Series of decisions to define the public data set Series of decisions to define the public data set Food balance sheets (not to be confused with agriculture) Food balance sheets (not to be confused with agriculture) High level High level Stocks are less variable and consistent over time Stocks are less variable and consistent over time Less non-food use (feed, seed, etc) Less non-food use (feed, seed, etc) Production and trade are main data drivers Production and trade are main data drivers What commodities??? What commodities??? 99% world calories 99% world calories 95% country level calories 95% country level calories other other

16. Food is Key… Decisions or confirmation Decisions or confirmation variables (elements) variables (elements) use of statistical discrepancy factor use of statistical discrepancy factor timeliness goals (within one year) timeliness goals (within one year) start point, smoothing? start point, smoothing?

17. A Robust Measure of Global Food Availability What would it look like??? What would it look like??? Click on spreadsheet to see! Click on spreadsheet to see!

18. Analysis Focus on food available for consumption and calories/person/year Focus on food available for consumption and calories/person/year possible/probable/time element possible/probable/time element check data (household surveys) check data (household surveys) Production and trade = core info Production and trade = core info Accept unless reason to adjust Accept unless reason to adjust document document minimise use of statistical discrepancy factor minimise use of statistical discrepancy factor moving averages moving averages suppress = gap suppress = gap Smoothing??? Smoothing??? Nutrients Nutrients may need to derive factors may need to derive factors Once established, consistency is important Once established, consistency is important

19. Testing 6 countries, 5 commodities, 2000 - 2007 demonstrates that suggested balance sheets will work well demonstrates that suggested balance sheets will work well need production and trade need production and trade everything else is fine-tuning everything else is fine-tuning impact of stocks data gaps is small impact of stocks data gaps is small data adjustments limited data adjustments limited in line with current FAO data in line with current FAO data 20 to 35 commodities = 95% 20 to 35 commodities = 95% incorporating the new methods... works incorporating the new methods... works

20. Testing -more Excel works well for this application Excel works well for this application other good options other good options Nutrient factors need review Nutrient factors need review A knowledge of fundamentals is critical A knowledge of fundamentals is critical Click open file to see actual data!

23. Agriculture -referring to primary commodities- Format = EST or WAOB Format = EST or WAOB Marketing year is OK Marketing year is OK No need for duplication No need for duplication EST more exposure EST more exposure ESS more efficient ESS more efficient FAO limits duplication and provides better service FAO limits duplication and provides better service Is there a willingness??? Is there a willingness???

24. Trade Independent value Independent value detailed detailed currently player in international trade statistics currently player in international trade statistics shares with Eurostat, UNSD, OECDshares with Eurostat, UNSD, OECD original data original data Potentially more timely Potentially more timely

25. Production Independent value Independent value cover more commodities cover more commodities agriculture and processedagriculture and processed limited detail limited detail Potentially more timely Potentially more timely

26. Methods Implementation Simply Put Project Project data and systems team data and systems team data users data users 3 major steps 3 major steps planning planning data = define the public data setdata = define the public data set systems = builds specifications from data teamsystems = builds specifications from data team development development data = country specific commodity balance sheetsdata = country specific commodity balance sheets system = programming working and publicsystem = programming working and public release release experimentalexperimental Result = relevant, reliable and timely data set that will stand the test of time... Result = relevant, reliable and timely data set that will stand the test of time...