1. Centre for Actuarial Research The Impact of PMBs on Affordability January 2003

2. Centre for Actuarial Research Approach to Affordability  Compare price of components of PMB package to reported benefits and contributions of medical schemes.  Industry level  Scheme level  Option level  Compare price of PMB package to published contribution tables for open scheme options. Focus on low-cost options.  Compare price of PMB package to income levels of existing members and potential members of medical schemes. Impact of employer and per capita subsidies.

3. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of the PMB Package

4. Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis  Different clusters experience different benefit utilisation, costs and disease profiles. Provider behaviour differs by cluster, even within the same hospital facility.  Four distinct clusters:  High contains options with older, 'whiter' members with high utilisation;  Medium-older contains options with medium utilisation and older members;  Medium-younger contains options with medium utilisation and younger members; and  Low contains options with younger, 'blacker' members with low utilisation.

5. Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis

6. Centre for Actuarial Research Cluster Analysis  Study contains more Low cluster beneficiaries than the industry.  For industry comparisons, use Weighted industry price.  This uses 50% of the costs of the Low cluster and 100% of the other clusters.  Low cluster is more relevant to the emerging low-cost option environment.  High cluster is used to give an upper limit to the PMB price. Would only be applicable to a few high utilisation options.

7. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of Inpatient and Outpatient Package

8. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of CDL Package Centre for Actuarial Research

9. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of Complete PMB Package

10. Centre for Actuarial Research Private Sector PMB Package per beneficiary per annum

11. Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure on PMB Package Well below Registrar’s benchmark of 10% of total expenditure

12. Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Complete PMB Package

13. Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector PMB Package per beneficiary per annum

14. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of PMB Package by Age

15. Centre for Actuarial Research Price of PMB Package by Age  Note that for all age bands over 40, the PMB price by age exceeds the community-rated PMB price.  This explains the incentive open schemes have to attract and retain younger and healthier members.

16. Centre for Actuarial Research Complete PMB Package for family of four per month

17. Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Benefits

18. Centre for Actuarial Research Beneficiaries 2001 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001

19. Centre for Actuarial Research Hospital Only Centre for Actuarial Research Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

20. Centre for Actuarial Research Hospital and Related Centre for Actuarial Research Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

21. Centre for Actuarial Research Medicine Centre for Actuarial Research Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

22. Centre for Actuarial Research Total Benefits Centre for Actuarial Research Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

23. Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Contributions

24. Centre for Actuarial Research Total Contributions Centre for Actuarial Research Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

25. Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure 2001 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

26. Centre for Actuarial Research Real Non-Healthcare Expenditure Source : Registrar’s Returns Centre for Actuarial Research

27. Centre for Actuarial Research Non-Healthcare Expenditure 752 496 676 - - - 169 110 113 90 171 5 R 0 R 100 R 200 R 300 R 400 R 500 R 600 R 700 R 800 R 900 R 1,000 PMB Low Cluster PMB Industry Weighted PMB High Cluster Open Schemes Restricted Schemes All Registered Schemes Per Beneficiary per Annum Other Non-Healthcare Administration and Managed Care 921 501 786 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

28. Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Centre for Actuarial Research 1,551 2,157 3,798 5,475 5,625 5,520 1,400 2,425 R 0 R 1,000 R 2,000 R 3,000 R 4,000 R 5,000 R 6,000 PMB Low Cluster PMB Industry Weighted PMB High Cluster Open Schemes Restricted Schemes All Registered Schemes Per Beneficiary per Annum Private Sector Public Sector 1,016 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001 Centre for Actuarial Research

29. Centre for Actuarial Research Bargaining Council Schemes

30. Centre for Actuarial Research Bargaining Council Schemes Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001

31. Centre for Actuarial Research Bargaining Council Schemes Source : Registrar’s Returns 2001

32. Centre for Actuarial Research Exempt Scheme Benefits 2000 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2000

33. Centre for Actuarial Research Exempt Scheme Benefits 2000 Source : Registrar’s Returns 2000

34. Centre for Actuarial Research Impact on Low-Cost Options

35. Centre for Actuarial Research Options Available to Benchmark Family Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research

36. Centre for Actuarial Research Primary Care Network Options Source : CARE Monograph Centre for Actuarial Research

37. Centre for Actuarial Research Recommendations for Low-Cost Option Design  Need contribution less than R500 for family of four earning R4 000 per month.  Hospitalisation offered in differential amenities in a public hospital.  Specialist services in a public hospital.  Chronic medicine offered either in the public hospital or with a strict formulary by the primary care providers.  Primary care offered in private sector capitated networks. Source : CARE Monograph

38. Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Relative to Income

39. Centre for Actuarial Research Income Levels Open Schemes CMS Survey 2001 Source : Council for Medical Schemes

40. Centre for Actuarial Research Employment Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Source : OHS 1999

41. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research Employment Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

42. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research Workers Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Source : OHS 1999

43. Centre for Actuarial Research Income Levels Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Source : OHS 1999

44. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research Income Profile Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

45. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research Income Proportion by Age Medical Scheme Beneficiaries Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

46. Centre for Actuarial Research Centre for Actuarial Research Income Profile All Citizens Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

47. Centre for Actuarial Research Part of a medical scheme Potential SHI Public Sector Centre for Actuarial Research Possible SHI Income Earners Source : OHS 1999

48. Centre for Actuarial Research Affordability Issues for Pensioners

49. Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners Centre for Actuarial Research Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

50. Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners Not in Medical Schemes Centre for Actuarial Research Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

51. Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of the Disabled Centre for Actuarial Research Source : OHS 1999 Centre for Actuarial Research

52. Centre for Actuarial Research Real Contributions Source : Registrar’s Returns Centre for Actuarial Research

53. Centre for Actuarial Research Future Pensioner Philosophy 7% 1% 6% 16% 60% 4% 12% 15% 26% 43% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60% Eligibility Criteria Changed Cap Benefits Cash or Benefits in lieu of Medical Cap Company Contribution Do Not Offer Benefits to New Employees 1999 2001 Source : OMHC Health Survey 2001

54. Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions

55. Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions on Affordability  Comparing actual benefit expenditure and contributions to PMB package: at industry level, PMB package was well covered.  There should thus be no upward pressure on contributions from Prescribed Minimum Benefits.  Comparing published options prices to PMB package: showed conclusively that the current packages on offer by open schemes were way in excess of the price of the PMB package for the industry. In some cases the prices were four or five times the price of the PMB package.

56. Centre for Actuarial Research Conclusions on Affordability  The conclusion must be that there is substantial room to reduce the current benefit offerings in the industry to something closer to the price of the PMB package plus an additional amount for routine primary care.  The industry needs to critically examine benefit offerings for 2004 and begin the designs with a focus on the PMB package.

57. Centre for Actuarial Research Further Research on Affordability  Calculate price of PMB package for each scheme using age profile of that scheme. Compare to community-rated price of PMB package.  Compare price of PMB package to disposable income of households.  Maximum proportion of income to be spent on healthcare.  More information on employer subsidy policy.  Impact of per capita subsidy, once shape of subsidy finalised.

58. Centre for Actuarial Research Policy Issues

59. Centre for Actuarial Research Understanding of PMBs  It has become apparent during this research that the introduction of Prescribed Minimum Benefits with effect from 1 January 2000 has barely impacted the industry.  Very few schemes are able to isolate PMB expenditure from other benefits.  Of even greater concern is how few medical practitioners seem to have heard of PMBs. Thus at the critical interface with patients there is little knowledge of the rights of medical scheme beneficiaries to treatment for the PMB conditions.  It is certainly not in the interests of schemes to educate practitioners and this critical role must be taken on centrally by the Department of Health or the Council for Medical Schemes.

60. Centre for Actuarial Research Community-rated PMB Price  The comparison of options prices in open schemes for the benchmark family shows a wide divergence of prices.  Members should be facing a common community-rated price for the PMB package and not a price determined by each scheme according to its own demographic profile and illness burden.  Now that a price has been conclusively determined for the PMB package for the industry, this can facilitate work on a risk equalisation mechanism between schemes that covers the benefits in the PMB package.

61. Centre for Actuarial Research Vulnerability of Pensioners  From the study findings, it is evident that pensioners are already vulnerable and that they will increasingly find contributions to medical schemes difficult to afford, given that medical contribution increases have exceed pension increases.  Added to this is the changing structure of employee benefits in such a way that future pensioners will be unlikely to have a subsidy for medical benefits in retirement.  The study describes the subsidy issue as a future time bomb and this issue needs to be placed on the agenda now.

62. Centre for Actuarial Research Impact of Per Capita Subsidy

63. Centre for Actuarial Research Per-capita Subsidy  The study also attempts to put into context the per capita subsidy mooted in the Taylor Committee report.  It was demonstrated that this subsidy could have enormous impact on the affordability of healthcare for low- income families.  This impact is subject to the final amount of the subsidy and the exact form it will take.  There is no doubt that a subsidy of this nature has a far- reaching impact on affordability of the PMB package for low-income groups and clarity on proposals is now needed.

64. Centre for Actuarial Research Public Sector Contracting  The price of the PMB package in the public sector, which lies at the heart of affordability for the low-cost options and the Bargaining Council schemes, now needs further work by the public sector itself.  Medical schemes need to know at what price they can contract for the delivery of benefits in the public sector and these contracts need to be facilitated at a national level.  The impact of this additional substantial network to the current hospital networks offered by the private sector should have a galvanising effect on hospital benefit negotiations for 2004.

65. Centre for Actuarial Research Total Expenditure on Prescribed Minimum Benefits  To put the size of the business in context, total expenditure on the PMB package using the Weighted industry price would have been R 14.573 billion in 2001.  The estimated price for delivery of the package in the public sector would have been R 9.460 billion.  This covers only registered schemes.  A further amount of R 0.268 billion would be added to the public sector total for those Bargaining Council schemes reporting in 2001.

66. Centre for Actuarial Research A Research Unit of the University of Cape Town (CARE) Centre for Actuarial Research A Research Report Prepared Under Contract for the Council for Medical Schemes