1. Reporting on National Circumstances and Greenhouse Gas Inventory Information Introductory presentation by the UNFCCC secretariat Workshop on the preparation of fourth national communications from Annex I Parties Dublin, 30 September – 1 October 2004

2. Overview Introduction UNFCCC reporting guidelines, main provisions relevant to reporting on national circumstances and greenhouse gas emission inventory measures C&S report of NC3s, some general issues and problems identified Some points for discussion

3. Introduction National circumstances: purpose of reporting –Article 4.1: stipulates commitments of all Parties, taking into account national circumstances; –Article 4.2 (b): the aim of the Convention taking into account different circumstances, such as economic structure, resource base, need for sustainable growth; –Article 7.2(b) and (c): the role of the COP to promote exchange of information on PaMs taking into account different circumstances and to facilitate PaMs co-ordination; –Present basic political, economic, demographic, climatic and natural resource information relevant to GHG emissions/sinks –Facilitate the understanding of the Parties’ policy choices to put the subsequent information in the NC in context Reporting on emission inventory: Article 12.1(a) for all Parties

4. UNFCCC reporting guidelines national circumstances Clear focus on how the national circumstances affect the GHG emission profile Information that best describes the national circumstances and historic trends, including disaggregated indicators To improve comparability two sets of information are required –generic information: government structure, population, geographic, climate and economic profiles –sector specific information together with examples of the key drivers: energy + transportation, industry, waste, building stock and urban structure, agriculture, forest and others.

5. Findings and Problems Encountered national circumstances Findings –Improved reporting compared to the previous NCs; –Reporting on national circumstances was a basis for reporting on other issues, such as PaMs, emission inventory and projections; Problems encountered –Extensive reporting did not necessarily contribute to better understanding of the climate change context; –Wide diversity in the approaches used by Parties to present key parameters, such as GDP and energy supply and demand made the comparison across the countries difficult; –Many IEA/OECD data have been used for the Compilation and synthesis report and the IDR reports for consistency; –Time series for economic and energy data often did not match the period for reporting on emission inventory (from 1990 to the last but one year to the year of submission of the national communication).

6. Starting Points for the Discussion national circumstances How to ensure concise, yet complete and transparent reporting on the national circumstances; how to enhance reporting on the effects of the main drivers relevant to GHG emission trends (obtained, e.g.through structural analysis)? How to report on key parameters, such as GDP and energy supply and demand in a comparable way; is using the IEA/OECD data and categorization an option? How to ensure that the time series for economic and energy data and any other critical variable matches the period for reporting on emission inventory (from 1990 to the last but one year to the year of submission of the national communication)?

7. UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines GHG inventory Summary information on GHG inventory prepared following guidelines for inventory Period: from 1990 to the last but one year prior to the NC submission GHG inventory information in the NC3 should be consistent with the submission of the annual inventory information in the year when the NC is submitted and any differences should be clearly explained A complete inventory data set is not required At a minimum, Parties shall report the summary, including in CO2 eq. and emission trend tables given in the CRF (in annex)

8. Findings and Problems Encountered GHG inventory Findings –Minor reporting problems and inconsistencies between the inventory data in the NC and annual inventory submission; Problems encountered –Some inconsistencies in the emission trends (between the NC2 and NC3, and the NC3 trend itself) –In some cases, little information on the key drivers for emission trends: this information is important for better understanding of PaMs and projections –Limited information on quantitative analysis on how changes in key drivers are affecting emission trends(feedback from IDRs available, e.g. Germany and Finland) –Limited explanation on the changes in the inventory data reported in the previous NC that affect emission trends

9. Findings from the IDR of Germany (1) GHG inventory Key drivers for CO2 emissions reduction improvement in energy use efficiency (largely obtained in the new Länder in 1990–1995) as the main contributor changes in energy supply mix: 1) fuel switching from coal to natural gas; 2) an increased use of non-carbon energy (RES and nuclear energy) the counteracting effects of population and GDP growth Figure. Impact of key drivers on CO 2 emissions in 1990–2002

10. Findings from the IDR of Germany (2) GHG inventory Method used: decomposition analysis (ASIF analysis) Allows to assess in quantitative terms the effects from key drivers, such as population, income, energy efficiency and energy supply mix Literature –Hans-Joachim Ziesing “CO 2 emissions in 2002 – only a slight reduction”. April 2003. Economic Bulletin of the German Institute for Economic Research 40(4)4: 121-130. Berlin. –J. Schleich, W. Eichhammer, U. Boede, F. Gagelmann, E. Jochem, B. Schlomann, H.-J. Ziesing. 2001. Greenhouse gas reductions in Germany – lucky strike or hard work?. Climate Policy 1, 363–380 –Jari Kaivo-oja, Jyrki Luukkanen The European Union balancing between CO2 reduction commitments and growth policy: decomposition analyses, Energy Policy 32 (2004) 1511-1530, Elsevier –IEA/OECD Oil crises and climate changes: 30 years of energy use in IEA countries, 2004 Paris

11. Starting Points for the Discussion GHG inventory What makes the reporting on GHG trends in a national communication different from and complementary to reporting on the GHG trends in annual NIRs and CRF files? How to ensure concise, yet complete reporting on the key drivers for the emission trends? How to improve reporting on the main drivers that affect GHG trends?