1. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment MODULE 10: TARGETING A THEME IN ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT: HUMAN VULNERABILITY DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

2. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Introduction  This module focuses on the theme of human vulnerability. It provides a comprehensive example for the many ideas discussed here:  It gives some potential indicators of human vulnerability  It uses these indicators to show the importance of providing a forum for public participation in IEA to improve the indicators  It illustrates the importance of demand driven initiatives in IEA for sustainable development  It shows the importance of respecting local ideas (including those of the underprivileged) and culture

3. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Concepts of human vulnerability  Being continuously re-defined but degree of vulnerability commonly looked at a continuum from extremely vulnerable to extremely secure  More vulnerable communities have:  Limited choices – relatively low levels of technology and any exposure to hazard may strain choices  Limited ability to adapt to changing environmental circumstances. Common response to hazards is to expand operations or move to new area which leads to conflict over resources with other communities  Limited political/social/economic power to make own views important: i.e. marginalized in decision making.  Limited control of own destiny. Highly dependent on external intervention and therefore easy to victimize.

4. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Environmental change intensifies vulnerability  For vulnerable communities, environmental change:  intensifies human impact on environmental resources,  introduces shortages they cannot adjust to,  weakens health due to increased food insecurity,  increases marginalization in decision making and resource allocation, and  increases their potential for conflict as they migrate in search of new resources.  Consequently, assessing human vulnerability to environmental change is important, to provide early warning to catastrophes, especially in Africa.

5. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Assessing human vulnerability  Feedback loops exist in human impact on the environment which should be considered in vulnerability assessment  Changes in environment  impact on human welfare  human response e.g. change in behaviour  reduction of environmental problem  Response fails or is ineffective in more vulnerable communities and problem increases without outside intervention  Community becomes more and more vulnerable to any extreme event, e.g. drought, flood  Increases food insecurity, poverty, economic losses, poor health, potential for conflicts, all of which have been suggested as potential indicators of vulnerability.

6. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment An example of a framework for assessing human vulnerability Human impact on environment (e.g. deforestation, soil erosion) Human vulnerability to environmental change (health, poverty) Societal commitment to the environment e.g. investments

7. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment Some potential indicators for assessing human vulnerability to environmental change Environmental causesExamples of Indicators Health- Urban air and water pollution - Percentage of people affected by environmental diseases Economic losses/ gains - Environmental diseases - Soil erosion - Deforestation - Hours of labour lost due to environmental diseases - Food productivity loss due to soil erosion, etc. - Reduction in yield (e.g. fish) from water bodies Poverty- Depletion of resource base to meet the basic needs, e.g. food Percentage of labour force affected by resource depletion Food security - Loss of natural vegetation and biological diversity - Soil erosion - Rainfall amount and distribution - Percentage of natural vegetation cover - Percentage of people directly dependent on land resources - Extent and distribution of degraded land - Rainfall amount and variability Conflicts- Scarcity of water - Depletion of natural resource base - Number of people living in areas where water is scarce - Number of people dependent on vegetation resources Human Vulnerability

8. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment What case studies have shown (see Manual)  Case studies carried out in various communities highly vulnerable to environmental change have shown that in attempting to reduce vulnerability:  IEA must be included in assessing the problems that arise from environmental change. In some cases (e.g. Darfur region of Sudan), publicity has focused on ethnic conflict.  A meaningful forum for discussing the development of indicators and policy formulation is useful.

9. Division Of Early Warning And Assessment  Encouraging demand for reform to introduce measures that will reduce vulnerability to come from within the community has enormous benefits  Equitable contribution of input of ideas including encouraging the socially neglected social groups encourages near total participation in policy formulation, and,  Respect of local ideas and culture encourages the community to feel it owns the policy formulated What case studies… (cont’d)